10/12 10:00 AM NFL (259) GREEN BAY PACKERS at (260) MIAMI DOLPHINS
FREE PICK: (260) MIAMI DOLPHINS +3
If you just look at the numbers, Green Bay deserves to be favored at Miami as they’re simply the better football team. But when breaking down the actual match ups, this game gets much fuzzier in terms of picking the outright winner.
It’s just not a great matchup for the favorite. The prolific Packers offense can be contained by this Dolphins defense. Meanwhile, when the Dolphins can run the football, they’re not a bad team and that’s something they should be able to accomplish here. I’m not expecting the Fins to just race up and down the field at will. But I can’t see why they shouldn’t be able to put together a few nice drives.
There is one aspect of this game that worries me as far as Miami is concerned. The Dolphins special teams have been abysmal. They’re dead last in the NFL in special teams efficiency and that is an area where immediate improvement is mandatory. The upside here is that the coaching staff is well aware of the problems in this area, and they’ve had a couple weeks to try and rectify things thanks to the bye week.
I’m not going hung ho in making a case for Miami. Rather, I’m staying with what I’ve felt since prior to the season. That is, the Packers are good, but not elite, and are therefore getting overrated by the experts as well as the majority of the bettors. The fact that the Packers are coming into this one off a laughably easy win earns a little more value on the dog. And the truth is, I’m really not giving Green Bay any special credit for crushing a Vikings team that was forced to go with overmatched Christian Ponder under center.
This should be one of the best games of the day. It’s what I feel is a really good spot for the home team, and getting at least that field goal is a nice little cushion. If the Dolphins can avoid a major blunder on special teams, I think they have a real shot at the upset. I’ll sign on for the Dolphins plus the points.
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