10/5 10:00 AM NFL (453) CLEVELAND BROWNS at (454) TENNESSEE TITANS
FREE PICK: (454) TENNESSEE TITANS +1
Let’s give some props to the Cleveland Browns. They’re just 1-2 to start the season, but it’s also true that they’re within just a play or two of being 3-0 and the biggest surprise in the NFL. However at the same time, it’s just as easy to see how the Browns could be 0-3.
I’m focusing a little more on some of those negative numbers in breaking down Cleveland’s game with the Titans on Sunday. Sure, there are some positives out there. Brian Hoyer has been pick-free through three games, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell are each running the ball impressively, and Andrew Hawkins is emerging as a legit talent at wide receiver. The Browns are absolutely doing more on offense than I anticipated prior to the season, especially with Josh Gordon having to sit out the proceedings.
But the Cleveland defense has some holes. The Browns are having a great deal of trouble stopping the run, with opponents connecting for an absurdly high 5.2 yards per carry. That’s bad, and so is the fact the Browns are allowing a 66% completion rate.
The Titans would appear to therefore match up well with Cleveland. I see Tennessee being at its best when they feature the run. They probably haven’t done as much of that as they should so far, although some of the imbalance is due to operating deficits in their last three outings. I’m hoping and expecting to see much more of the running backs here.
The Titans will also likely have Jake Locker back under center. Locker is not exactly a world beater at QB, but he’s better than Charlie Whitehurst, who filled in ineffectively last week in the drubbing at Indianapolis.
What I need to see from the Titans here is a boring game plan that features lots of running and controlled passing game with tight end Delanie Walker getting featured once again. I really feel as though Tennessee will be able to put together some lengthy and productive drives if they stay within themselves.
The Browns are off the bye week, so they ought to be fresh here, and there’s no doubt about it, Cleveland has been more competitive than Tennessee through the first month of the season. But I’m a believer in finding value with strength vs. weakness and if that happens to be in the run game, I’m consistently going to back the team that figures to win that stat. In this case, I believe there’s a legit chance the Titans could outrush the Browns by a substantial margin, and if they accomplish that, they’re a likely winner here. No problem with the price as it’s less than a field goal, so Tennessee minus the small spot is the play.
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