539 DAVIDSON @ 540 DUQUESNE
Take: 540 DUQUESNE -2.5
I can guarantee you that had you asked me prior to the season what the betting line for a February game featuring Davidson at Duquesne might be, there’s absolutely no question the Wildcats would have been the favorite.
But fast forward to right now and the roles have changed. Davidson has had all kinds of injury issues the entire season. Only three players have managed to make it to the post for all 19 games. As a result, the usual cohesiveness that’s a hallmark of Bob McKillop’s teams simply hasn’t been there. The Wildcats still take great care of the basketball, with the lowest offensive turnover rate in the country. Put Davidson on the foul line and they rarely miss. But the other elements have been problematic.
Duquesne has made some very nice strides this season, and Jim Ferry is a serious contender for A-10 Coach of the Year. The Dukes are 15-7, and prospects for their first post-season participation since 2011 look great. Duquesne still has its flaws to be sure, but there’s no denying the improvement this program has made, and the NIT is a real possibility for this team if they can stay reasonably warm. That might not seem like the loftiest goal around, but for a program that has been steeped in mediocrity for what seems like forever, it’s huge.
The key for Duquesne here is to be more diligent defending the three-ball. Davidson has a pair of sharpshooters in Jake Gibbs and Brian Sullivan. In fact, this entire team is comfortable firing up the long ball, and three-point defense has been a notable weakness for Duquesne.
I’m banking Ferry to have his team prepped properly for what they will see from the Wildcats. I really think it comes down to whether or not Davidson is given open looks in transition. The Dukes have done a better job lately in that area, although the caveat is that those results came against lower-level A-10 competition.
From a technical standpoint, I like the way the Dukes are playing at home. They’ve been earning dividends for their backers on this court this season, and Davidson has been struggling on the road. Make no mistake, I don’t expect this to be easy. But it’s a very big game for the home team, they’re on a bit of a roll and I like backing home favorites with revenge when they’re off at least back to back wins and covers. I’ll go with Duquesne.
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