FREE PICK: (581) USC UPSTATE +4.5
Sure, you remember Florida Gulf Coast. One of the all-time great NCAA Cinderella stories, the Eagles are trying to make their way back to the Big Dance and they’ll try to take another step tonight as they host USC Upstate in an Atlantic Sun Tournament semi-final matchup.
This is no longer the high flying Lob City entry that stood the college hoop world on its collective ears a couple years ago. The current edition can still do some crazy athletic stuff and they’re shot blocking maniacs. But this is a defense first Florida Gulf Coast entry and point prevention is their game.
USC Upstate is also a team that I think would qualify as defense first. The Spartans force lots of turnovers and feature a pretty tough man to man defense that seems to work for this experienced entry.
I don’t think there’s a great deal to choose between these teams. The road team needs Ty Greene to have a big game. The hosts are going on rely on Brett Comer and Bernard Thompson, the two senior leaders who were such a huge part of the Sweet 16 run two season ago.
It’s definitely not easy to pull the trigger and fade this favorite at home. Florida Gulf Coast is not going to fold under the big game pressure. But I don’t believe the visitors will either. The Spartans are actually the slightly better team on the ratings set that works most reliably for me in these tournaments. I see this one having a great chance to be a one or two possession game that goes to the wire. That being the case, I feel I’m getting enough here to justify taking USC Upstate plus the points.
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