Point Blank – February 21, 2017
SC/Florida, a rematch for the Gods of Basketball…Tracking NC State, as Gottfried became Gotfired…Wojo may have found Marquette’s mojo…
Extreme situations are an obvious challenge for even the shrewd handicapper, but they can offer opportunity because the oddsmakers and bet shops are forced to sort through them in posting the full menu. Tuesday brings a couple of settings on the NCAA board that we can explore along those lines, a few more Case Studies in Basketball Consciousness.
Item: If you didn’t see Gamecocks/Gators the first time around…
When South Carolina and Florida meet for the second time this season the ESPN cameras will carry it live this evening, and you will get a chance to watch two of the best defenses in the nation go at it, the favored Gators at #3 in defensive efficiency, and the Gamecocks at #4.
You will also see a pair of offenses of nowhere near that same level. What happens when two very good defenses face offenses that can be challenged to make plays? Something like the first go-round between these two, the 57-53 win by South Carolina in Columbia, a game for the ages in terms of defensive dominance.
One of those early defensive plays was a steal by Florida’s Kasey Hill, which he turned into a layup at the other end for the game’s first points. It just so happened that came with 14:14 remaining in the first half. It might sound rather dull for two teams to still be sitting at 0-0 after nearly six full minutes of play, and the first media timeout having been passed, but there was plenty of action. This is what transpired before the first time the ball went through the nets –
14 missed shots
13 turnovers
4 blocked shots
The first actual made “shot” did not come until there was 12:29 remaining in the half, when Rakym Felder knocked down a 3-pointer for South Carolina, cutting the deficit to 4-3, both Gator baskets to that point being uncontested layups after steals by Hill.
When all of the counting was done the two teams had combined to make just 34 of 105 from the field, with 31 turnovers vs. only 12 assists. The activity of the defenses produced 16 steals and 11 blocked shots. And there is also a particular category that is extremely challenging to process – Florida went 0-17 from 3-point range, the first time since 1992 a Gator team had not made at least one triple in a game. And in 1992 none of the current roster players had even been born.
South Carolina is indeed outstanding at guarding the arc, rating #2 in the nation in holding opponents to 28.9 percent on 3-point attempts. But even that would call for allowing 5-17, while the Florida offensive season rate would call for 6-17. And note that for both the Gamecock defense and Gator offense, that is with the first go-round built in, which has a lot of impact on the numbers. Does that bring pendulums in play off of the extremes? That is where the process can get murky.
Is there a regression that one could expect in the rematch? The notion gets clouded because there are other factors in play. One of the issues noted about Florida here a few weeks ago in previewing the showdown vs. Kentucky, which the Gators dominated at home, is that the same depth that makes the defense so unrelenting, the fact that no player in the rotation is going more than 28.4 minutes in SEC play, can also make the offense disjointed. No one averages more than the 13.2 ppg of Canyon Barry, but he missed practice yesterday with an ankle injury and is a question mark for tonight. As Florida moves up the polls the question has still not been answered as to whether the gators have the genuine go-to scorer(s) that can beat this class of defense?
Note that it if Barry misses it also throws a wrench into that deep rotation, which won’t have top inside defender John Egbunu the rest of the way because of a torn ACL. While Kevarrius White stepped up well at Mississippi State on Saturday, with 10 rebounds and four blocked shots, what had been a nine-player rotation may be reduced to seven.
Meanwhile can anyone other than Sindarious Thornwell score for South Carolina? He had 20 in the earlier win, scoring 18.2 percent of all points the game produced, and while it would seem like a good sign that he has averaged 30.0 per game over the last four outings, the Gamecocks have only gone 1-3 SU and 0-4 across that stretch. They have now fallen to #300 in the nation in effective FG%.
This may not be easy basketball to watch, with both teams exerting great ball pressure, although it will be worth watching closely how Mike White dials up his rotation if Barry cannot go. Did that first meeting reflect an offensive dud, or is that the way this matchup is supposed to flow, with so many of the shot attempts that were missed being forced because good looks could not be found?
Item: What now for N.C. State (the Wolfpack only bit the rear tire of a car that had sped past them)
There is another extreme in play on the Tuesday board, the rare notion of a college lame duck coaching out his remaining games, as Mark Gottfried and N.C. State head to Georgia Tech. While there was a great deal of attention from the Sports Mediaverse for the Wolfpack home game vs. Notre Dame on Saturday, tonight’s affair may offer more of a handicapping challenge, especially because State’s loss to the Fighting Irish was not an easy read.
There were real questions as to how the Wolfpack would perform under the microscope of that setting, and it made for a difficult read – while losing 81-72 as +5 does not appear to be too far off the mark, State trailed 59-36 with 14:18 remaining before making what could be defined as a strong closing run. The question is whether that was really a sign of life from the Wolfpack, or a Notre Dame team that lacks depth and athleticism backing off, and being vulnerable when the concentration level was not fully there.
Let’s set the stage by going to Gottfried’s pre-game speech, made in front of the ESPN cameras - “You gotta choice to make right there. I can promise you, fellas, I’m going to bite that damn tire. Bite the damn tire today, fellas, you hear me? Bite the damn tire.”
But instead of biting the tire the players actually let the car speed past them, and it was 41-28 at halftime. Following intermission there was also not much sign of life, an 18-8 run by the Fighting Irish to build the lead out to the max point. So now let’s got to Gottfried in the post-game, because I believe there is some truth to be found in the words -
“I’m disappointed. Nobody’s into moral victories. We’re not into all that. But, I saw some fight today. I like it. I saw some fight, some spirit, I think we got a little bit of that back. I’m really proud of our young guys. Proud of them. It’s been a tough couple days, no doubt about it.”
They key word there is “some”, which Gottfried used three times. One can reference that as the coach receiving less than he had hoped for, which I will do, and also that with the three previous games having been blowout losses of 78 on he scoreboard, 46.5 points short of the market expectations, there had seemingly been “none”.
Now the challenge going forward – if it was only “some” playing at home in the first game after Gottfried’s firing was announced, what happens for a relatively non-descript road game against an opponent that won’t motivate them in any special way? I am not enamored with Tech, both on general principles and short turnaround here, off of a Sunday night win over Syracuse that got closer than it needed to be in the latter stages, but should a -3 show over the course of the day I will likely bite off a piece. We can head to Milwaukee for something more substiantial…
In the Sights, Tuesday NCAA…
What happened to St. John’s on Saturday should hit all radar screens. What had been an over-achieving team this season was already showing signs of wearing down on defense, and in a game in which an opponent was going to take them seriously, Butler bringing a revenge motive, it was a 110-86 rout, the Bulldogs scoring at will and dominating the boards. But there was another Big East result that day that may have fallen below many radar screens, and that means another opportunity for a team that will bring their all to expose the Red Storm, in this instance #542 Marquette (8:00 Eastern) getting the call, with -9.5 available across the board in the early trading. On “Al’s Night”, honoring the legendary Al McGuire, it is more than just another Tuesday night.
Steve Wojciechowski and his Golden Eagles got a badly needed bye week before hosting Xavier, coming at a time in which they had lost their focus, especially on the defensive end. The coach made a gamble, pulling Haanif Cheatham, Luke Fischer and Jajuan Johnson out of the starting lineup, inserting Duane Wilson, Andrew Rowsey and Matt Heldt, and in fact did not play Johnson at all. The new group exploded to a 21-2 lead out of the gate and never looked back. From Wojo - "That's all I want. The score will take care of itself if you fight and if you're playing for your teammates, not just with them.”
Now that same energy and renewed chemistry can be expected, for this revenge setting, while having Cheatham (15 points and eight rebounds in 26 minutes off the bench), Fischer and Katlin Reinhartdt in reserve means a lot of punch, especially with Johnson likely to be back in the rotation again. That energy can take full advantage of a St. John’s defense that is allowing an astronomical 89.6 points per game on the conference road, which includes earlier games when the Red Storm were much fresher. With six freshmen and sophomores in the top seven in the rotation Chris Mullin does not have any way to prevent this attrition on defense from continuing, and a fresh and re-invigorated Marquette team fighting for tourney hopes is not likely to pull any punches.
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