Point Blank – January 16, 2017
On the MLK Day NBA Marketplace…A good post mortem should extend beyond the final buzzer (on The Game after The Game)…Expect little lightning from the Thunder tonight…
The week ahead is going to be filled with a lot of discourse on a pair of fascinating NFL matchups, and perhaps it is proper for an era in which the playoffs may begin to resemble the MLB diamonds a little bit that we will have Rodgers vs. Ryan and Roethlisberger vs. Brady to work with; as the rules evolve to make it more difficult for the defenses, the truly elite QBs become so difficult to stop. Was that championship run by Denver a year an outlier for these times, a last salvo for great defense? We shall see over the years ahead, but if someone were to state that Brady/Rodgers/Ryan (going alphabetically) were the three best QBs in the league this season, and Big Ben not too far down the list, I would not waste any time even beginning to craft a rebuttal.
But football talk will be for later, starting with the usual Tuesday wrap-up, tomorrow’s focus going to the surviving teams (there is a long off-season ahead to conveniently file the post mortem notes on those that were just eliminated). Today we jump right into a basketball board on Martin Luther King Day that will have action flowing throughout (kudos to the Big East for their staggered schedule for television; I sincerely hope this becomes an annual event). And it is in tracking how some of that action takes place across the betting counters that may be just as intriguing as what happens on the courts themselves.
Item: Will those wheelbarrows of Under money hit the board again
It has been a general theory through the years that afternoon games in the NBA bring sluggish play, and hence lower scores, and the logic is there – because the vast majority of games are played at night the body rhythms of the players are accustomed to getting to bed late, sleeping in, and then using the game-day shoot-around as their wake-up call. It is often then an afternoon nap following that session, to have the physical energy in place for the evening tip-off.
What happens when games start early? Not only the expected lethargy of those bodies being out of their usual cycle, but also the absence of the shoot-around, which also impacts the playing rhythm. And often some ugly basketball.
The oddsmakers know this, of course, which means that the Totals get adjusted a bit, though they can’t go too far with it because the markets are anchored to overall power ratings, and will play back to them any time an adjustment goes too far. The question for today will be whether they have to adjust even more than usual.
There was some balance in the pricing process for the 2010-2014 MLK Day settings, the 41 day games (classifying anything starting at 5:35 Eastern or earlier in the tracking) playing Under at a 21-19-1 clip. But then came 2015, which may have set a different stage -
2015 Open Close Scoreboard*
Min/Cha 196.5 193 185
Phi/Wash 192.5 192 187
Det/Atl 204 202 175
Bos/LAC 212 212 195
Den/GS 218 217 201
Dal/Mem 206.5 203.5 198
NO/NY 192.5 189 191
Ind/Hou 197 196 208
* - regulation
First note that as is noted here often, my tracking for Totals on game grading, team scoring and trend reviews only counts regulation results. The markets were once again inclined to play the games Under, but this time look at the rewards – those that got in line early enough on Pelicans/Knicks went 7-1, and even someone betting at the fished-out waters right before tipoff had a 6-2 catch. There was plenty of buzz surrounding that, which can happen in these social media days, and bettors on the look-out for some kind of easy fix, of which there are legions, could not help but be excited.
That led us to the 2016 board on this day, and even though the oddsmakers firmly believed they had made proper adjustments, there was significant Under money in every early start anyway -
2016 Open Close Scoreboard*
Phi/NY 202.5 200.5 192 (232 in 2 OTs)
Uta/Cha 190 186 190 (243 in 2 OTs)
Port/Wash 213 208.5 206
NO/Mem 196.5 193 200
Chi/Det 203.5 201 212
Orl/Atl 200.5 198 179
* - regulation
This time the results were far different for the pockets of the plungers, with overtime swinging 76ers/Knicks inside-out, and also biting the first one to the window for Jazz/Bobcats. So now the fascination for today – will we see that same market behavior again, or did the 2016 results cool the heels a bit?
My inclination would be that if you do have an Under handicap be prepared to be among the first in line, while if you see something run so low that your numbers call for taking a flutter on an Over don’t be afraid of it – for all of the discussions of the logic of these games being a bit stodgy, that is now a part of the market consciousness, and when that happens preparing to counter that flow might lead to the occasional positive opportunity.
Item: When New Mexico and Colorado State meet next
Long-time readers will know full well by now that my approaches don’t end when the players walk off the field or the court; there is a significant concentration on the post-game quotes to sort through some of the aspects of sports that numbers don’t explain well. We are still betting on human beings each day, and the various vagaries of their individual and collective psyches. So I can bring something into play here not just for the general point, but also something specific for the files – when Colorado State goes to Albuquerque to play New Mexico on February 22 there may be more passion involved than would ordinarily be the case.
First I can get something out of the way for the football folks that have chosen to read this far – do not bring up any notions of “revenge” for this week’s NFL playoff games. Just don’t. While it may sound like a good talking point, it is of almost no consequence in terms of a teams energy level. The Steelers and Packers have revenge going for them, but that would only elevate their morale if they were otherwise going to be a bit flat. When you are a veteran team trying to make it to the Super Bowl you are already going to be bringing everything that you have, which renders revenge notions as mere trivia.
That may not be the case for Colorado State. I was charting that game vs. New Mexico closely because there was a major question as to how Larry Eustachy was going to play it – as discussed back in the weekend thread it was the last game for Che Bob, Devocio Butler and Kimani Jackson to be in the rotation, all three failing to have made the grades to stay eligible for the spring semester, which begins on Tuesday. With a full week off before the game the question was whether Eustachy would go all out to win, using those three (who had all been contributors) as much as he could, or if that time would instead be focused on developing the remaining players for what was ahead. Eustachy chose the latter, and with only seven scholarship players left in his rotation it was an ugly 84-71 loss for the Rams, who struggled badly on defense.
That game did not really end with the final score, however, it continued on with an altercation afterwards, largely focused on New Mexico assistant coach Terrence Rencher and CSU player Emmanuel Omogbo, so you might want to file this story away for that rematch down the road.
In the Sights, Monday NBA…
Every once in a while even a team that plays with a consistently high level energy is going to face a night on which they are brittle enough to snap, and I believe there is a major gap between what the Thunder and Clippers bring this evening, which will put #518 LAC (10:35 Eastern) into pocket, with -7.5 available in the early Monday markets, and this one good to -8.
It will not be easy for OKC to play at a high level tonight, either physically or in terms of focus. This will be the 15th straight court change for the Thunder, who have not had back-to-back days off since December 15-16. They got pushed to the final possessions before emerging 122-118 at Sacramento last night, and while the physical recovery is difficult across the board, it may be a particular issue for Enes Kanter, who got stretched out to 32:24 after Steven Adams left with an injury that may put him in the concussion protocol (I don’t expect Adams to play tonight). In terms of focus there is no particular burning desire for this game, OKC having whipped the Chris Paul-less Clippers 114-88 on New Year’s eve, but there is something on deck – a rematch against Kevin Durant and the Warriors on Wednesday. Should this game get away early, might Billy Donovan wave a convenient white flag and start gearing towards that one?
Now consider the LAC side of the equation. The Clippers are set to go for the jugular in this revenge setting about as well as the long NBA schedule ever allows. Since losing at Oklahoma City on New Year’s eve they have only left home once, a short trip to Sacramento to beat the Kings, and this will be the 10th straight day at home since then, having only played three games across that span, non-taxing wins over the Heat, Magic and Lakers. They had two full days off before beating LAL on Saturday afternoon, with that early tipoff making their transition even better to this game – they could practice for OKC yesterday at the same time the Thunder were having their shoot-around to prepare for the Kings.
How much focus may be going into this matchup from the Clippers side? Doc Rivers was already talking about facing Russell Westbrook in the post-game of Saturday’s win, after admitting to having watched a pair of OKC games on television last week - “You can’t invest all your time trying to stop him, because you’re not anyway. And you have to try to slow him down. But you’ve got to try to not allow all the others that he gets involved to play well.”
That helps to show the focus, and of course one of the prime tools is there for just this purpose in the defense of Paul – in their only head-to-head this season Westbrook was held to 9-25 from the field. And of course there is D’Andre Jordan for rim protection, and note the impact of the easy January schedule on his energy level – 108 rebounds over the six games, despite not being on the court for more than 37:14 in any of them. With Adams likely missing, Jordan’s impact becomes an even bigger part of the proceedings this evening.
I believe this is all-out for LAC, which next gets the break of two more days off, before hosting Minnesota on Thursday, and that means an energy and concentration level that may prove to be too much for the Thunder to match.
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