Point Blank – January 29
Raising the ceiling for the Grizzlies...Some Post–Mortems, on PGs…
A couple of weeks ago in a discussion about NBA futures I made a comment that Portland and Memphis could be disregarded a bit in the West because they lacked upside. That is still true of the Trail Blazers, who are having to get too many minutes from Damian Lillard (more on that in a moment), plus having LaMarcus Aldridge play through that injured thumb, to be around in June. But it is time to re-visit the Grizzlies, with Jeff Green meaning more to this team than his abilities might suggest. That Tuesday night shellacking of the Mavericks in Dallas was simply a thing of beauty, especially given the circumstances
In discussions about the Cleveland defense this week, it was noted that the fact that the Cavaliers had a long home-stand, which included some days off between each game, made a big difference in terms of assimilating new faces Timofey Mozgov, Iman Shumprt and J. R. Smith into the rotation. Memphis has had a similar stretch, playing five straight games at home before heading to Dallas, and also getting five days off through the stretch. That meant an opportunity to incorporate Green into the flow, and also to get some genuine practice time. So when they found on Tuesday that Mike Conley and Tony Allen would not be able to go, they were much more ready to make adjustments for their absences than a marketplace that sent Dallas up to -6. The game was a 109-90 rout. Eight Memphis players scored at least eight points; Zach Randolph reached double figures in rebounds for the 16th straight game; and the Mavericks were held five point below their previous low for a home game this season.
Conley would be an All Star, if the Western Conference was not so loaded at PG. There are several metrics that rate Allen the best perimeter defender in the league. Yet no problem, at Dallas. Part of replacing them so seamlessly was the chemistry that this group has built in being together for so long. But the fact that basically the same cast had been together for so long was also a reason why there was the belief of a lack of upside.
Entering this season some had wondered whether the Grizzlies might have even been past their peak, off of one of the more unusual playoff series in NBA history when they bowed out to the Thunder in the first round LY – despite taking it to seven games before elimination, they were out-scored by 45 points in regulation. That created the impression of a downward spiral, after getting eliminated 4-0 by the Spurs in the Western Conference finals the previous campaign. So when they opened up 26-11 prior to acquiring Green it did not necessarily bring a hint of fireworks; it was instead what a veteran team can do, getting out of the gate faster than opponents that were incorporating new faces. But it feels different now, with Tesday’s resounding win creating an echo.
Green’s numbers will not necessarily jump off the page – 12.9 ppg and 4.4 rpg in a Memphis uniform, but he adds a key piece that this roster had not had since Rudy Gay departed. There is not only someone at the #3 that can create and run the floor, but it also alleviates the need for Allen or Courtney Lee to have to guard bigger players. And that may just solve what had actually become a bothersome issue – a team that had built its reputation as “Grit ‘n’ Grind” had actually been underachieving defensively.
After finishing #2 and #7 in defensive efficiency the previous two seasons, the Grizzlies are only sitting at #11 right now. Look for that number to get better over the second half of the season. And especially look for them to bring it on that end of the court tonight. For a team that has a lot of pride there should be a serious focus in the payback mode against the Nuggets, who dealt them their worst loss of the season, a 114-85 drubbing in Denver back in early January. Attach no meaning to any possible matchup issues from that one – Memphis was caught in the NBA’s worst cycle, playing at that altitude the night after a road game in the Pacific Time Zone, and also without Randolph and Beno Udrih.
This time around it is Denver that faces the fatigue issue, playing a back-to-back on the road for the first time in over a month. And while the first leg was a 93-85 win at New Orleans, note the fluky elements from that one – the Nuggets were whipped badly on the boards and the defense only forced 10 turnovers, but they drained 10-17 from beyond the arc, compared to just 3-15 from the Pelicans. Take away that disparity, and they lost the rest of the game by 21 points.
So how best to take advantage of this setting? It will not be until later in the day that the status of Conley and Allen become known, and Memphis is not the easiest team to lay big spreads with, even given the revenge motive. But expect the Grizzlies to bring it on the defensive end, and that puts a Total in the 199 range squarely “In the Sights…”
About Last Night…
What a Wednesday it was in terms on breaking down the NBA point guards, with some emerging story lines that will impact their teams in the immediate future -
Kyrie Irving missed his first seven shots. That was a rather ominous beginning on a night in which he needed to step up his game to help replace LeBron James. No problem – he dropped 55 on the Trail Blazers, knocking down 11 triples, including a couple of super-clutch bombs in the final 1:15, when down by three, and tied. That was the kind of moxie that can get you into June; now it becomes a matter of keeping that flame burning at the proper level when James returns. But don’t neglect the flip side of this game. Last Friday there was a take on how Damiam Lillard was starting to look tired, and over his last four games he has connected on only 23-77 from the field. Terry Stott faces a unique juggling challenge on this road, trying to find a way to get Lillard’s confidence back, while also needing to get him off the court a little more often.
Rajon Rondo did not score at Houston. And in 34:23 of court time, had nearly as many turnovers (5) as assists (6). Dallas was 19-8 before he arrived, but just 11-9 since (7-12-1 ATS). Prior to his arrival the Mavericks had been held under 100 points in regulation five times in those 27 games; they have now been held under 100 in four of the last five. Note that a key to understanding Rondo’s impact is to watch how the better teams are going to defend Dirk Nowitzki. In the past, a key to his game was the offense creating switches in which he would be guarded by shorter players, enabling him to get that impeccable jumper off over them. But defenders are now going to stay on Rondo and allow plenty of space, without switching. As such, Nowitzki was only 9-23 in those last two defeats, while also only getting to the FT line for six attempts, with those 25 points being his lowest in consecutive games this season. When he takes only 23 of 160 Dallas shots, it is a huge issue. And those games just happened to come against two short-handed defenses, Memphis without Conley and Allen, and Houston without Dwight Howard.
At least D. J. Augustin scored at Philadelphia. All of two points over 34:21, but like Rondo, he did not make a shot from the field, going 0-7 and only dishing out four assists in that dismal Piston loss. Tag their 69 points as the worst offensive performance by any team this season given the opposition, and it is not too early to call their run towards playoff contention as being over. It was just a couple of days ago that Augustin had 35 points and eight assists at Toronto, in his first game replacing Brandon Jennings as the starter. This is simply who he is, a guy that will have the occasional strong outing, but can not maintain over any prolonged stretch. A team that badly needs a catalyst from the PG position does not have one anymore.
Russell Westbrook may have played one of the worst games ever for a player that scored 40 points. He just did not get others involved, with only four assists in that 100-92 loss to the Knicks, and as a team the Thunder only had 10 assists on 85 FG attempts. There was little semblance of a team game being played, and note that they were -15 in the 34:33 that Westbrook was on the court, but +7 in the 13:27 while he was sitting down.
John Wall hit the wall. There had been some thought from Randy Wittman about giving Wall a night off during Washington’s arduous stretch of four games in five nights out west, and he probably should have. Wall was just 5-16 from the field, with five turnovers, in that loss at Phoenix and you could note the lack of energy in his not getting to the line for a single FT attempt over 36:11. Because of the setting, you can grade both Wall and the Wizards somewhat kindly, and now they get two badly needed days off before Saturday’s key home game vs. Toronto.
This Week at Point Blank
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Starting Five…Some Orange Crush, in Chapel Hill?...
Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – Super Bowl Edition…The Pistons lose a cylinder (at the wrong time)…Marcus Paige didn’t have a turnover last night (his teammates had 20)…
Wednesday – The Duke defense, revisited (and a word or two about “Scrambling”)…A third straight day of talking Cleveland defense…Derrick Rose shot 39.4 percent, had 11 turnovers, and only one assist (and the Bulls still beat the NBA’s best team)…John Beilein had a really good week…