Point Blank – January 28
The Duke defense, revisited (and a word or two about “Scrambling”)… A third straight day of talking Cleveland defense…Derrick Rose shot 39.4 percent, had 11 turnovers, and only one assist (and the Bulls still beat the NBA’s best team)…John Beilein had a really good week…
This year’s Duke defense has been a topic for discussion here on a couple of occasions, starting with their breakdowns in a pair of ugly ACC losses when they allowed N. C. State to go off for 87 points, and Miami F. for 90, and then noting how Mike Krzyzewski’s shift to a zone made the difference in shutting down Louisville on the road. So now the question becomes whether or not they really found a direction, because tonight they face what may be the toughest defensive challenge in the nation this season – guarding Notre Dame on the road. And with the game projected to be close, it is time for a tour of another key handicapping corridor as well.
Mike Brey’s team is running fantastic offense. They are #1 in the nation at 123.9 PP100, with a #2 in turnover rate, #1 in effective 2-point rate, and #13 at effective 3-point rate. The Fighting Irish have superb balance, with four players averaging at least 13.4 ppg (there are several teams that do not have a single player averaging that much), and a brilliant ratio of 326 assists vs. only 190 turnovers. To guard them well you have to bring some experience, savvy and toughness, which Virginia certainly had in one of the two Notre Dame blemishes. But Duke?
In truth, even after the zone worked so well for one night at Louisville, it has been a mixed bag. There were combinations of zone and man-to-man in wins over Pittsburgh and St. John’s, with moments of success from each, but also some difficult stretches – in beating the Red Storm at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, they trailed by 10 points on four different occasions in the second half. Now a team that still has not developed a defensive identity may have to adjust yet again, perhaps having to go with a smaller lineup at times because of the way Notre Dame spreads the floor and makes perimeter shots. This is a most dangerous setting for a zone defense, which we may not see at all.
Coach K is not the only one with defensive issues here – Brey has to find a way to check Jahlil Okafor, despite a penchant for not doubling on opposing big men this season. The price Brey pays for having guys that can handle and shoot the ball on offense is a lack of size and athleticism on the other end, and the Notre Dame defensive numbers are anemic - #157 overall, including just #282 at forcing turnovers. So if the matchup features two of the nation’s top five offenses, and a pair of defenses with issues, yet is also expected to be close, might there be some end-game pyrotechnics?
Could the scramble be on?
I have used the phrase “end-game scramble” a bit here this season, without realizing that it had not been clearly defined. What it refers to are setting in which a close game can lead to a late scoreboard explosion, especially with coaches that are adept in managing the situations – those that can draw up plays to quickly get shots; understand how to extend play by fouling; and also show a willingness for their teams to compete to the final buzzer, believing that they can score enough to overcome a late deficit. There are times in which the final minute of a close game can put a dozen or more points on the board (quick example – Florida State/North Carolina tallied 18 over the final 0:55 on Saturday), and in Brey vs. Kyzyzewski, we have two of the best tonight.
But here’s the thing – it is only experience that has their commendations in this category filed away properly. There just is not a particular way to quantify which coaches are best at it because there is not an easy category to search through a data-base. Perhaps that is best in the long run, keeping a degree of market awareness away. But it absolutely could be a factor in South Bend tonight – if this game stays close there are two excellent end-game offenses; two vulnerable defenses; two teams that will make their FTs (Notre Dame at 73 percent and Duke at 72.9 in ACC play); and a pair of coaches that will not hesitate to scramble and foul, playing the game out to the very end. If this game is sitting on 4 or 5 heading to the final minute, it could take a half hour to finish. Not only is this a major part of the pre-game handicap, but also something to be watching for in terms of in-running opportunities as well.
In the Sights…
Those scramble points talked about above can create havoc in data-bases, of course, especially for those that put a lot of projections emphasis on final scores. There was an Exhibit A in Detroit last night, and it may be helping to set up an opportunity to buck the early Wednesday markets, which have taken the Total on #704 Cleveland from 204 to as high as 207.5.
There have been a couple of takes this week on how much the Cavalier defense has been improving, with some practice time at home helping to assimilate those new faces into the rotation, and heading into the final minute at Detroit last night it was a 93-83 lead, and what would go down as another solid defensive outing. But that game generated 22 points over the final 0:54, to create not only a misleading final score, but to also skew the stats as well.
On three consecutive trips, from 0:26 to 0:05, Stan Van Gundy had the Pistons drive to the basket for either a lay-up or a dunk, despite being down by eight points each time, and then fouling immediately. Ordinarily that setting calls for a team to try to get a triple to narrow the gap (or on some nights to just dribble the game out), yet Detroit opted to take the ball to the basket, and Cleveland did the proper thing in playing matador defense, not wanting to commit a foul. Yet that defense gets statistically penalized for that stretch.
Keep in mind that for as much improved as the defense has been, it is not just the Detroit late showing last night that creates some misleading statistics, but also those home routs of 106-92 over Utah and 129-90 over Charlotte – the Jazz and Bobcats scored 57 of their 182 points in the fourth quarter of games that had long been decided. As such, there can be market segments simply not seeing the Cleveland defensive improvements, which is driving tonight’s Total into a value range.
About Last Night, NBA…
Last night’s 113-111 OT win by Chicago at Golden State was a passion play unfolding, never more than a single-possession lead over the final 6:42, and perhaps one in which the Bulls may have regained that toughness that had been missing. Just imagine winning a game in which Jimmy Butler did not play, and Derrick Rose shot 13-33, while compiling the worst assist-to-turnover ratio of his career. In fact, it was worst night for a point guard in that category since NBA began tracking it in 1977-78. But that one assist sure did matter, and in the Greek Tragedy that a season can be, mark it down as one of those moments that may mean much more than a single trip down the court.
When Joakim Noah missed a short shot with 0:24 remaining, the Bulls were down 105-104 and were going to be down by more in a few seconds, with the situation calling for a forced foul. And if the Warriors made their FTs, and held on to win the game, Rose could have finished with 10 turnovers and not a single assist. But before a foul could take place Stephen Curry threw a bad pass that was stolen by Kirk Hinrich, Hinrich dished to Rose, then Rose back to Hinrich, who knocked down a triple at 0:15 to make it 107-105. Finally an assist, to break the goose egg.
Rose would not get another assist in the OT session, with two worn out teams only combining for 10 points over those five minutes, but he did make the jumper that finally broke the 111-deadlock at 0:08. It was a night in which grit overcame some stretches of ugly basketball, and it is that grit that the Bulls had not been showing this season. They defended the Warriors about as well as anyone can on that floor, holding them to 42.5 percent shooting, including just 9-33 triples, and remarkably only letting them get to the line for 12 FTs over 53 minutes. But it will be that lone Rose assist that gets remembered most, a moment that could be a season-turner in terms of the Chicago swagger.
About Last Night, NCAA…
There may not be a better X’s and O’s guy in all of college basketball than John Beilein, and perhaps no one that gets more out of the talent available. So time to salute what he has done over the past week, a 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS stretch in which the market expectations were exceeded by 28.5 points in regulation play.
In what is a rebuilding season, after the early departures of Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary and Jon Horford, as well as the school-record of 142 games that Jordan Morgan turned in, Beilein has been thrown a pair of difficult curveballs over the past week, but did a tremendous job of piecing a puzzle together. He got a SU underdog win at Rutgers (OK, so he should never be an underdog to Eddie Jordan, but that is the way that the markets priced it), despite being without Chris Levert, who was leading the team in scoring, rebounding and assists (Spike Albrecht has subsequently passed him on the latter list). And that same group pushed powerful Wisconsin into overtime, before coming up short.
The roster got thinned even more before hosting Nebraska on Tuesday, with Derrick Walton, who was second in scoring and rebounding, and third in assists, unable to go. The left a starting lineup of junior Albrecht, sophomore Zak Irvin, and freshmen Ricky Doyle, Muhammad Abdur-Rahkman and Aubrey Dawkins, a group that had one career start entering this season, and only 44 combined starts (out of a possible 105) through the first 21 games. Yet they controlled the Cornhuskers wire-to-wire, winning the battle on the boards and putting three players in double figures. The team chemistry was superb, especially on defense, with Nebraska being held to 30.6 percent shooting, and managing only six assists.
The problem is that for as good as Beilein is, it is still difficult to project that his remaining parts would click as well as they did, without either Levert or Walton. But what you can do in such settings is perhaps put him into that special “Play Against or Pass” category. There was significant money against Michigan in both the Rutgers and Nebraska games, and while the loss of key players logically fueled that flow, you may want to make it a rule to simply never attend that particular party, when Beilein is involved.
This Week at Point Blank
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Starting Five…Some Orange Crush, in Chapel Hill?...
Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – Super Bowl Edition…The Pistons lose a cylinder (at the wrong time)…Marcus Paige didn’t have a turnover last night (his teammates had 20)…