Point Blank – November 24
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #13
The Week that Was on the college gridirons, and some of the key takeaways that you can incorporate into your own handicapping processes, in order to isolate some edges on the betting boards ahead…
Item: At the Top, is it Win and You Are In?
Charting the betting markets approach to teams alive in the Playoff hunt can be as important as watching the teams themselves for our purposes, helping to anticipate line movements, and to better time opportunities. As such, it was not surprising to see money to Baylor and Ohio State last week (more on each of those in a moment), the top two teams on the outside looking in. Neither the Bears nor the Buckeyes came within double figures of covering the spread, and a case could be made that the Ohio State cause going forward was even hurt a little bit by the inability to dominate Indiana. Now those two teams are in similar roles this week, vs. Texas Tech and Michigan, which means that the model should be the basic and simple one again – if you like the two favorites, go early, if your handicap shows the underdogs, the best price might be found in the minutes leading up to kickoff.
But what about the teams at the top? Is it as simple for Alabama (vs. Auburn), Oregon (vs. Oregon State), Florida State (vs. Florida) and Mississippi State (vs. Ole Miss), as merely needing to win their games to advance? That appears to be the case, and from a handicapping standpoint only the Oregon game actually brings the “Playoff” incentives into play, because the other three favorites do not have the control of the proceedings vs. quality opponents that will likely have them in position to be tacking on late scores. And even Oregon’s setting becomes clouded a bit by the Ducks having to play again next week, in the Pac 12 Championship game, which could make working the clock portion of the scoreboard, rather than the points designation, the priority in the latter stages at Corvallis.
Here is what you absolutely should factor as you break down those games, given the opponents involved. The #1 priority entering a season is to win the championship. But in the course of human behavior, many times the #2 motivation is to make sure that your arch-rival does not win a championship. Auburn and Mississippi will play this week as though they are the ones still alive in the Playoffs. Florida will show a special zeal vs. FSU in Will Muschamp’s farewell. And Oregon State will bring every drop of what is left in the tank. This really, really, matters. Whatever disappointments the underdogs in those four games have (assuming Ole Miss remains the slight dog vs. State), they can almost all be erased over 60 minutes of football.
Now for more of the money-burning outings from Ohio State and Baylor…
Item: Has Tevin Coleman played better than anyone? (Part II)
Part I - /pregame-forums/f/14/t/1092134.aspx.
Sometimes it comes down to football science. Ohio State closed at -35.5 vs. Indiana on Saturday, yet there was a rather simple aspect to the equation that carried a lot of weight – how often does a team lose by more than five TDs when they are able to run the ball effectively? Good running can mean points, but even if an offense is not efficient in producing those points it still means the ability to work some field position and eat up clock. Try a query in your data-bases of how often a team runs for 150 or more and loses by 35+, which would have been an honest expectation for Indiana going in, and then run a set at 200 or more. Get the point?
Coleman’s Addendum: 27 carries, 228 yards, and three TDs in Columbus, without the aid of a passing attack (the Hoosiers only managed 114 yards on the 27 plays the ball was in the air), against one of the nation’s best defensive fronts, and a team primed to get a margin to improve in the Playoff hunt. For all the talk of Melvin Gordon in the Heisman race, if you factor the draw of the defenses those two have faced across the Big 10 schedule (Gordon did not have to take on Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan or Penn State), Coleman has been every bit as good, perhaps even better. You just won’t read his name being mentioned for that trophy. Indiana got an easy cover despite having a terrible day passing the ball (11-27-114 with an INT), a terrible day on defense (the Buckeyes got 5.8 per rush and 8.6 per pass), and a terrible day on special teams (allowed a punt return TD). That is what Coleman was worth.
Item: Mason Rudolph really is that good
Oklahoma State covering vs. Baylor on Saturday night was a big result for guys on the other side of the counter, sweating a game that had risen from -27 to -33, before trickling back to -32 at kickoff. Naturally some of that money was based on the need for style points from the Bears, but there was also a jump when it was announced that QB Daxx Garman would be out for the Cowboys because of a concussion. But when Mike Gundy decided to take the red-shirt off of Mason Rudolph, that changed the nature of that game dynamic in a major way - instead of the line going up for Garman being out, it actually should have dropped a bit. Rudolph’s debut produced 13-25-281, an electric 11.2 yards per attempt, with two TDs and a pair of interceptions. His accuracy down the field was particularly impressive. So where has he been? Faithful readers of Point Blank already know that answer.
Rudolph’s situation was detailed here a month ago – “Oklahoma State’s last 40 possessions have produced 39 points” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1072206.aspx). Gundy had decided to hold back his top prospect in a season that was not going to live up to expectations, and was paying the price on the field for doing it. But the options were becoming so limited that he wanted to avoid the ugly fate of blowout losses to Baylor and arch-rival Oklahoma to close out the campaign. In terms of the takeaway from Saturday night, it was more than just Rudolph’s physical skills on display; the post-game comments from a few of the Cowboy players are absolutely worth taking to heart -
From WR David Glidden, who caught five passes for 99 yards and a TD - “I thought he did a great job staying level-headed. That’s something you need at the quarterback position. Give Mason props. You always want a leader and a guy who’s going to be composed.” And RB Desmond Roland – “I think he did an excellent job. He didn’t seem nervous. He was being vocal out there. He was being a leader.”
Now it will be Rudolph at QB in the “Bedlam” clash with the Sooners, and make sure when you break that one down you weigh his game against Baylor much more heavily that the Cowboy season-to-date statistics on offense, especially as Rudolph gets two full weeks to practice with the first-team offense. His upside is tremendous, especially with a coach like Gundy on hand to develop him. Because sometimes the development of a young QB can go awry…
Item: Penn State threw 16 passes at Illinois
A lot of links back to prior topics today, but it shows how you can take advantage of emerging narratives over the course of a college season, in a marketplace that misses many of the cues. The story line began here in September, “Christian Hackenberg misses Bill O’Brien” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1051824.aspx), and instead of what could have been a major positive moment on Saturday, a muddled season continued.
Hackenberg and the Nittany Lions opened strong against an Illinois defense that rates #104 in the nation in Pass Efficiency Defense – on the opening drive it was 3-3 for 33 yards and a TD through the air, and a 7-0 lead. It could have been time for a confidence boost for a QB that had struggled throughout the season, and a chance to build momentum heading into a tough test this week against that staunch Michigan State defense. But what happened after that first drive? Only 13 more passes the rest of the game. There were a few more called that turned into sacks, but it was remarkably stagnant play calling. Penn State gained 265 yards against a defense that was allowing 536 in Big 10 games, and via a moribund game plan that seemingly played not to lose, the door was left open for the Illini to rally and win 16-14 on a FG with 0:08 remaining.
James Franklin is bringing a high level of energy to a University that needs that kind of positive in the program right now, and he will be a strong recruiter. But when it comes down to game management and player development, there are open questions. Instead of growing in his sophomore season it has been a clear step back for Hackenberg – yards per pass are down from 7.5 to 6.2, and his freshman ratio of 20 TD passes vs. 10 interceptions is now an ugly eight vs. 14. By the way, three of those TD passes came vs. Akron.
Penn State was either tied or in the lead in the fourth quarter of Big 10 losses to Michigan, Ohio State, Maryland and Illinois. While the lack of depth is indeed a factor, the offensive decisions down the stretch also played a major part in those defeats. But no game brought a clearer example than failing to aggressively attack a soft defense on Saturday, allowing a weak opponent to hang around, and as so often happens, when you do not put a team away, you pay the price. As for this week, the failure to build confidence into the passing game comes front and center when Michigan State comes to Happy Valley.
Item: The Miami Hurricanes have lost half of their last 16 lined games in double figures
There was quite a buzz when Miami jumped out to that big early lead vs. Florida State last weekend, and the game announcers could not help but make some comparisons to the current Hurricanes and their predecessors, with a win over the Seminoles perhaps signaling that the program was on the way back. Except that it isn’t. There was enough raw talent on hand to make that strong early showing in that game, but as the evening wore on many of the fundamental aspects of football came into play, and they lost. That loss was followed up with a dismal showing at Virginia on Saturday night, when the pedestrian Cavaliers went on a 30-0 in-game run, and while there might be a temptation to not grade too harshly because of the “letdown” for that setting, do not fall into that trap. The Hurricanes losing in double figures is not news – it has happened in eight of their last 16 lined games.
That is not a sign of progress as Al Golden’s fourth season comes to a close, a time at which almost all of the contributing players are his own recruits, and he has had more than enough opportunity to get his systems in place with those players. Which will bring a genuine question for the powers that be in Miami – is the season coming to a close, or Golden’s tenure? The Hurricanes are 28-20, and without a bowl win, under Golden. Is there any real progress from the 28-23 of the Randy Shannon years?
While there is some terrific talent on hand, the Hurricanes continue to play inconsistently, and without discipline. They are #103 in the nation in penalties per game, and #106 in penalty yards, the most damning of the measurements. That could mean that as the team prepares to face Pittsburgh this week, the players will hear and read stories about how this could be Golden’s last regular season game, which could prove to be a distraction.
Item: Before Believing in Bielema
While Golden has failed to set a direction at Miami, there are a lot of happy folks at Arkansas right now, off of the Razorbacks dominating LSU and Mississippi by a combined 47-0 the past two games. On top of those earlier close calls, losing to Texas A&M in overtime, falling just 14-13 to Alabama, and leading Mississippi State in Starkville at halftime, it might appear that the program really is turning a corner under Brett Bielema. And psychologically, they are. But be careful with the rest.
Bielema is known for power football, especially on offense. And the assumption would be that those victories are a tribute to his game plans working. Except that on offense, they haven’t. In those last two wins Arkansas only generated 254 yards on the ground. It has not been a case of sacks or fluky plays dampening the production – let’s look at top RBs Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins in those games:
LSU Mississippi Combined
Williams 18-55 20-81 38-136 (3.6)
Collins 16-46 23-79 39-125 (3.2)
The truth is that the ground game was actually ineffective in the wins, and that outside of pushing around a soft Texas A&M defensive front for 286 overland yards (by the way, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State and Missouri all ran for more against the Aggies), the other six SEC outings have only generated an average of 130.8.
What Arkansas has done is play tremendous defense in those last two home games, but now the issue – that defense is keyed by five senior starters. They were not Bielema recruits. So while there is a rush across the Sports Mediaverse to say that his stamp is now being shown on the program, be careful with that. There is a genuine question as to whether the Bielema offensive style can work in the SEC, something that absolutely has not been proven in this recent surge, and the jury remains out as to how well he will be able to recruit. Handling LSU and Mississippi the way they did the last two weeks was impressive, but it does not necessarily mean as much going forward as many are trying to make it. Especially since there was another key factor in play on Saturday…
Item: Ole Miss, without Laquon Treadwell
There is a flip side to that 30-0 shutout suffered by Ole Miss that deserves a look. In their first competitive game since losing Laquon Treadwell, the Ole Miss offense was a disaster. Three lost fumbles, three interceptions, one of which was returned 100 yards by Rohan Gaines for a TD, zero points. Much of that was good Arkansas defense, but a lot was the Rebel offense having to face too many of those defenders in the box, without Treadwell to help stretch the field.
Despite missing the last eight quarters, Treadwell still has 11 more receptions than any of his teammates. Even when he was available, the Mississippi ground game struggled to get going between the tackles, having to rely more on deception and getting to the corners for “rushing” production. At 11 full games into the season, the Rebels still do not have 500 yards from any RB (Jaylen Walton leads the way at 435). Treadwell’s impact to this offense may well go beyond what his individual statistics can show, and it becomes a cornerstone of your handicap for an Egg Bowl showdown vs. Mississippi State this week that will be among the most frenzied of any in the history of the programs.
Item: Arizona was “tough” at Utah
Last week in this column there was a take on how Arizona QB Anu Solomon was wearing down, with the load he was being forced to carry in the Wildcat offense taking a toll on a freshman. And Solomon completed only 8-17 passes in the first half vs. Utah, the third time in four games he fell below 50 percent in that category. He had to leave the game with a foot injury, not taking the field after intermission, and that left the game in the hands of little-used senior Jesse Scroggins, who only attempted five passes the rest of the way. So on a rainy and blustery day in Salt Lake City, against a physical Utah team, it was a formula for a doom for an Arizona team that relies mostly on finesse. Instead, it was a 42-10 scoreboard domination, as the Wildcats stepped up and played “tough”.
Even without much of a passing threat, the Wildcats ran the ball effectively, with Nick Wilson rolling for 218 yards. A defense that lacks the size to get much leverage at the line of scrimmage came up with TDs on a fumble return and a Pick-Six. While there are still questions about Bielema above, this particular Arizona win shows that Rich Rodriguez is getting a foundation in place. And his recognition of the nature of what happened provides perhaps the best definition – “We aren’t the most impressive team getting off the bus, but getting on the bus after games like this may be a little more impressive.”
Item: Washington State's defense does not have a Pac 12 Interception
And then there is other side of the “toughness” equation out in the Pac 12, at remote Pullman, where Mike Leach is showing little signs of progress through three seasons with Washington State. It was not necessarily a bad hire by the program – they were floundering badly, so why not bring in a big-name HC to possibly ignite a recruiting spark? The problem is that for them to make a positive turn, it will have to be from recruiting, because Leach simply will not get them there on coaching. He remains an OC being elevated into a higher role, and it does not suit well. Perhaps nowhere is that more evident than the pass defense of the current Cougars.
There have been 289 passes thrown against State in Pac 12 play, generating 2,650 yards. And not one of them has been intercepted. That is not easy to accomplish. Out of that many attempts one would hope to get a couple just off of bounces alone, passes either tipped at the line of scrimmage that randomly arc through the air, or perhaps a throw that goes off of the hands of a WR and ends up within reach of a DB. But that has not happened. Lots of attempts, lots of yards, lots of points (a combination of bad defense and awful specials teams has allowed 43.3 in conference games), but no picks.
You will see some dazzling passing numbers from the Leach offense, but take them with a grain of salt – it honestly appears at times as though more of his coaching ego might be attached to that category than to the actual scoreboards. The Cougars have thrown the ball at least 61 times in every conference game, three times getting into the 70’s, including a game flow that did not have to call for anywhere near that at Arizona State on Saturday. Leach and his team jumped out 21-7, and went to the locker room at halftime ahead 24-21, providing a prime opportunity to slow things down for redshirt freshman QB Luke Faulk in that hostile environment. That did not happen – there were only 14 plays handed to RBs of the 100 snaps, and the Sun Devils went on a 45-3 in-game run by intercepting Faulk four times, and sacking him six more. With an upset within reach, Leach's game management was dreadful.