Point Blank – October 29
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #9
The NCAA Week that Was, and a look at some of the key issues to merge into your own investment portfolios for the weeks ahead…
Item: No one was better than TCU this weekend
Item: Should Boykin also get a little Heisman love?
The full details vs. Texas Tech would make last Monday’s lead topic points a bit redundant (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1066684.aspx), but Trevone Boykin and the Horned Frogs were real good. Again. The downside for Boykin’s Heisman aspirations is that a lot of potential stats were left off the table, because he was not needed in the fourth quarter in either of those last two games.
Item: Those End-Games, in the Coaches own words
Hugh Freeze made a colossal error when his hesitation to get the field goal team sent out cost Mississippi a delay of game penalty, and subsequently a game-tying FG attempt, at LSU on Saturday night. But as for what looked like an even worse mistake, that Bo Wallace interception that sealed the defeat –
“I think Bo would tell you, I thought we were pretty clear we were either going to take the flat throw or throw it out of bounds and try the field goal. He must have felt like he had a shot at the touchdown play there. … I wish I could do that over for sure.”
As for Mark Dantonio’s decision to have his Michigan State team keep running the ball vs. Michigan to the final snap, instead of taking a knee, which impacted the grading of both Side and Total wagers, was it about Playoff style points, or wanting to take a swipe at a hated rival –
“It just felt like we needed to put a stake in them at that point. Throwing the stake down in our backyard out here (Dantonio was referring to a past incident), and coming out there like they’re all that. That got shoved up … It got shoved in the last minute and a half.”
Dantonio really does not like Michigan. And perhaps he was a little miffed that the Wolverines scored a TD on their previous drive, ending the Spartan chances of holding their rivals without a TD for the third consecutive year. But while he may not have been thinking Playoffs…
Item: Navy has been out-scored 79-47 in the fourth quarter
OK, so maybe for Dantonio’s late pile-on was more about Michigan than style points for the Playoffs, but the latter issue will rear its head often in the weeks to come. One of the prime teams posing for the group portrait of candidates is Notre Dame – if the Fighting Irish go 11-1, with the only blemish that near-miss at Florida State, they may well have the best argument of any one-loss team. Hence why there are a couple of aspects to their trip to Landover to face Navy this week that matter.
The starting point is the bye week, which gives the Notre Dame defense added time to prepare for Keenan Reynolds and those option packages, which they struggled against in a 38-34 win in South Bend LY (albeit with key DL injuries that day a mitigating factor). But perhaps even more important has been the way that the Midshipmen have consistently worn down in the latter stages of games this season. This is not a case of them backing off with leads, which was only an issue vs. VMI, but instead an indication that a defense that lacks size and depth is finding 60 minutes to be a long time, even with the usual standards of conditioning that comes from the academy. That closing furlong to this game may be particularly arduous, given the Notre Dame physical freshness, and sense of purpose.
Item: The Pre-Playoff follies
So after all of the prelims, the Playoff committee gets down to business this week. But the idea of them convening in October, and then making their first findings public (7:30 Eastern on Tuesday night), is one of the most utterly preposterous things that could have happened to college football. And that is not hyperbole.
First, no meetings are needed whatsoever until after the second Saturday in November. Each season should be given a chance to sort itself out, because that is what most of them will do, which makes the time and money being spent the next two weeks on what will be a needless exercise rather silly. But now the worst part – by making their findings known, it can actually encourage the kind of finish that took place in East Lansing on Saturday, or could get into Brian Kelly’s head, among others, this week. Especially with ESPN presenting those listings ad nauseam, to build the kind of controversy that drives ratings.
Yes, there were almost always visible polls in the past (the AP poll has been going since 1934). But in this case you need to view the math differently; “four” is not “two” doubled. By opening up those two extra spots a host of candidates are brought into the mix – there are still 17 teams that can make a legitimate case by sweeping out their remaining games. Some of them will be eliminating each other in the weeks to come, but it is what happens against non-contenders that can raise issues about the integrity of the sport. That is why even if the committee meetings were held back until mid-November, their findings should remain sealed until it is necessary to show them. Just imagine if the same thing were being done for the Heisman Trophy, which could lead coaches to keep their star players on the field against out-manned opponents in one-sided games, piling up kindling for fires the sport does not need. But these are the cards that will be dealt in the weeks ahead, and effort will be spent here to define the impact for the serious handicapper.
Item: Stanford shifted gears
The Stanford offense was put under the interrogation lights here over a month ago (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1051824.aspx), with the lack of the usual power ground game subsequently coming to the forefront in losses to Notre Dame and Arizona State. That led to some interesting comments from David Shaw last week, which meant putting the full Eye Test in play when the Cardinal hosted Oregon State on Saturday. And when the game started, Shaw backed up the talk, which makes for some handicapping intrigue as the Cardinal head to Eugene this week.
Here was the prelude, from a Shaw press conference on Tuesday - “I’ve done a poor job of structuring our offense so that our guys can be successful. We have to utilize our personnel better. … I’ve got to help our guys so they can just be the great athletes they are."
So what did we see on the field? Stanford came out with a no-huddle offense and went uptempo, helping to build a commanding early lead. The offense looked as comfortable as it had all season, with four first-half TD drives that covered 261 yards. The ball was spread out so well that 10 different players caught passes. So it is all good, right?
Overall, yes, but for this particular week, maybe not. Would Shaw dare attempt to go with the same game plan at Oregon? And as for that ground game, which will be needed to manage game situations at Autzen Stadium, Remound Wright gained only eight yards on his nine Saturday carries, and no other Stanford RB had more than five rushing attempts. So this week’s key handicapping task is to try to get into Shaw’s head and determine just what his plan is going to be. They have upset the Ducks in each of the past two seasons, winning outright twice despite being underdogs of a combined +28.5, but that was done with power football – a combined 112 rushing attempts through those games, and a massive edge of 79:35 to 40:25 in time of possession. They can’t do it that way, this time. It creates a conundrum in terms of both the Side and the Total, and solving the riddle before the game begins could mean positive opportunity.
Item: Oklahoma State’s last 40 possessions have produced 39 points
On the topic of changing offenses, there is also the matter of what is going on in Stillwater right now. But for Mike Gundy, the keys to making it work remain elusive. Like Shaw, he has adjustments to make, but so far they can’t be found, and are perhaps beyond reach for this season. The Cowboys have scored one offensive TD over the last 10 quarters. Over their last 40 drives they have averaged less than one point-per-possession, a span in which there have been 20 punts, and as many turnovers (six), as scores (three TDs and three FGs).
How can this be happening to an offense that has annually been among the nation’s best, despite numerous starting QBs in recent years? This time it was not a case of “next man up” keeping the flow going, with a big drop from the injured J. W. Walsh to Daxx Garman, who entered this season not having played since his junior year of high school in 2009 (he walked-on in Stillwater, after beginning his career, but never playing, at Arizona). Garman has some physical skills, but it has become clear that all of those years off have taken a toll. Yet it is also too early for the Cowboys to turn to their future, Mason Rudolph, who they hope to red-shirt this fall. So what is there right now, eight games into the season, may be about all there is going to be. This, from OC Mike Yurcich, speaks volumes – “I wish I could tell you that it’s just one thing, and that’s what we’ve got to do to fix it.”
The lack of puzzle pieces to make in-game adjustments has been most apparent the past two weeks, when State was whipped 34-0 in the second half by TCU and West Virginia. That will be worth watching over the final four games – while having a pair of late-season byes might ordinarily be a plus, they could be of lesser advantage to this group.
Item: Beamer Ball, in the twilight
There was a telling moment when Miami/Virginia Tech went to the half on Thursday night, with the Hurricanes ahead 24-0. They closed at -2.5 at kickoff, and had commanded the flow so easily that the halftime lined opened at pick’em. And after more than three decades of being in position to pull the trigger at such moments, the hesitancy to fire was striking. Frank Beamer, +24 for the game, at home at night vs. an opponent that is good, but not great? The opportunity to take more than three full TDs above the closing line, with Tech getting the ball first to open the third quarter? What would have once been an automatic, instead brought hesitation. And while a halftime ticket would have ended with a push, the irony for such a wager being Beamer’s decision to go for a meaningless two-point conversion instead of kicking a PAT late in the game, it really is a different time in Blacksburg,
After a run of eight consecutive seasons of 10 wins or more, The Hokies fell off to 7-6 in 2012, before an 8-5 ended with a non-competitive 42-12 thrashing by UCLA in the Sun Bowl LY. Now at 4-4 the best that can happen is a minor bowl trip somewhere, and it raises questions about the future direction of the program. It has been a spectacular run by Beamer, but it is one that began in 1987, long before any current players or future recruits were born, and the nature of the last two Thursday nights, tells us that the remainder of the Beamer era has to be treated differently. That stunning upset at Ohio State back in early September may have been more of one last deserved curtain call, than an indication of a return to glory.
It is one thing for there to be offensive struggles – that has not been Beamer’s forte, unless he had a Michael Vick at the controls. And the issues on that side of the ball were addressed here in a Monday recap a month ago, particularly a closing note about OC Scott Loeffler and his uninspiring resume. But in those losses to Pittsburgh and Miami the Bud Foster defense was gashed for 574 rushing yards, with those late Pitt kneel-downs making it look better than it really was. Those two ACC opponents ran the ball 96 times, and only needed to throw 34 passes. It was rare to see Tech lose the battle up front on defense that way, but there has to be an acceptance of that as the new realities for the Hokies. Beamer ball has been great for the pockets through the years, but the fine print of the 2014 box scores tells us the “sell by” date may be at hand.
Item: Ball State really was fortunate, but Georgia Tech not so much
A couple of classic football “Rorschach” box scores found their way into the Saturday mix, and since they are on topic with a couple of recent topics, On Turnovers, and “Pandora’s Box Scores” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1058201.aspx), and “Old Joe”, and the “800-yard field” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1062801.aspx), let’s get to them.
GEORGIA TECH 56 PITTSBURGH 28
The Panthers might have had the worst opening offensive salvo in NCAA history, or perhaps football at any level, losing four fumbles on their first five plays. All became Yellow Jacket TDs, for a quick 28-0 lead. It can certainly look like Tech was gifted, but once again there is that key point of the impact of the goal line – while only 148 yards were needed for those TDs, the offense can not be faulted for gaining every one of them. If anything, be impressed by the fact that the Yellow Jackets only needed nine plays to find the end zone, averaging 16.4 per snap.
The fumbles may have ignited the sequence, but do not excuse the Pittsburgh defense because of the short fields – there were no indications of stops being made anyway. Tech finished the game with 612 yards at 8.1 per play, and only punted twice.
BALL STATE 35 AKRON 21
But now for the flip side – the Cardinals got a +5 turnover advantage against the Zips, and indeed needed every bit of them to get the scoreboard result they were awarded. Ball State now becomes a doubly interesting case study, because it has been +9 advantage over the past two weeks, which might lead the markets the wrong way.
Akron was leading 21-13 late in the third quarter, and appeared to be the better team. Then came a stretch in which five straight possessions ended in four turnovers and a blocked punt, with the Ball State offense being given the ball at the Zip 33, 38, 29, 27 and 6-yard lines. How is that for field position? Naturally points are going to hit the board when that happens, but the Cardinals only managed 22 of them, and in 28 plays netted just 95 yards (3.4 per). It was not the goal line preventing bigger yardage counts, but instead a team that was extremely fortunate to be granted fantastic field position, and in truth was not terribly efficient at turning that positioning into points.
Item: On grading On-Side KO Return TDs
While on the subject of the occasional blurring of yards/points equations, a reader asked what to do in terms of grading On-Side kickoff returns for TDs, of which there were a pair on Saturday (Mississippi State against Kentucky, and Arizona against Washington State). The answer? Nothing. There is no aspect of skill to be found either in the returning team getting the score (it is not what they are genuinely trying to do when the play begins), or the kicking team in allowing it. Of course, one could make an exception in the case of Washington State, which has allowed a pair of punt return TDs, a pair of kickoff return TDs, and then Saturday’s on-side return, in a span of only four games, further proofs that Mike Leach is still only an elevated OC. But that particular instance aside, pretend as though all on-side returns for TDs never happened, and you are better off.
Item: Temple goes -98 snaps over the last four games
After getting off to a 4-1 start that had visions of sugar plums dancing through the heads of Temple fans, the Owls just got whipped by 41 points in ugly SU and ATS road failures at Houston and Central Florida. While a -6 turnover gap in those games absolutely played a part, there is also an emerging fatigue issue that may become a problem vs. this defense down the stretch. It is particularly worth looking at because they had their last bye already, the first Saturday in October, and will close with eight games in as many weeks.
Over the last four games the Temple defense has been on the field for 325 plays, while the offense has only snapped it 227 times. In the last two games it has been 168-106, and that can be an issue not only with high-tempo East Carolina coming to Philadelphia this week (the Pirates reached 100 snaps vs. Connecticut on Friday), but following that game the short week before hosting Memphis next Friday night.
Item: Utah sweeps Los Angeles
Utah has consistently done the little things right under Kyle Whittingham, and even with allowing Adoree Jackson to return a kickoff for a TD on Saturday night, the Utes special teams have been terrific this season. What they have not had are the playmakers in the skill positions needed to win consistently in the Pac 12. That is why Saturday’s result is one to take heed in terms of watching the foundation of this program going forward. After going 1-5 against the two Los Angeles schools from the conference entering this season, a sweep of UCLA and USC may be a bit of a watershed moment.
Utah already has 34 players from California on the roster this season. That is a fertile recruiting area, and where the playmakers are going to come from if the Utes are to move up the ranks. Despite what some might think on the surface, there are a lot of talented players from that state, and particularly the Los Angeles area, that actually want to get away from the region to play their college ball. The Utah program just needed a breakthrough season to get on those radar screens. This may be it – if Whittingham can get to this stage with such limited options at QB and WR, there is some real upside with upgrades at those positions. The Utes already have a foundation established for the kind of physical play that is anathema to many of the other Pac 12 programs (witness the tactical success that Stanford has had); now establishing the “street cred” to bring in some playmakers at the skill positions could put this program in an intriguing position.