Point Blank – August 28
A “Family Affair” in Lincoln?
At 6:00 Eastern this evening in Williams-Brice Stadium, the scoreboards come to life for the 2014 football season. It will be the beginning of what we all hope will be a profitable ride, and each day in this space there will be an attempt to keep your course on track. There may not be a better way to begin the campaign than by focusing on one of most primary of all handicapping pursuits – finding edges that are not already in the line.
Sounds simple, right? Yet the concept can be so misunderstood, especially at the opening of any season. One of the most difficult aspects of this endeavor for aspiring handicappers/bettors is the basic understanding of what factors are already built into the line, so there will be much time devoted over the course of the season to that very notion. Parts of it will be directed towards finding winners, but perhaps even more will be geared towards avoiding 50-50 tickets. If you are trying to beat the line with the same information that was already used to set it, 11-10 goes from mole hill to mountain.
As such, week #1 on the NCAA gridirons can make one cringe at times, because of the “common wisdom” that pervades. When reading previews of games there are countless threads of “this team should be a great early bet because they have X number of starters returning”, or the requisite fading of the opposite end of that same spectrum, despite the fact that the very first thing the oddsmakers are going to do is note that returning starters each team has. And there has already been some of the usual over-reaction to injuries, something first discussed here (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1015684.aspx). Ohio State is now back to -16.5 vs. Navy on Saturday, yet there was -11.5 available a week ago.
Think about it the information flow this way. More than two decades ago, when the Stardust in Las Vegas was ground zero in setting the daily betting lines, Scotty Schettler built a “Handicappers Library” next to the Sports Book. There were reams of statistics and matchup info printed out from Computer Sports World, and each day one could see crowds of bettors with their notebooks (or even those great Stardust clipboards that Scotty had made; I wish to hell I knew where mine is, a great memento lost) sifting through the data. It did not bother Scotty at all – it was information he and his crew had already used to help set the lines, and if anything it was a tool to encourage handle.
Times have not changed, and far too many times we see bettors turn themselves into Sisyphus, trying to push the line uphill against its own origins, instead of searching for the openings around that boulder. So over the course of the season there will be many discussions about what is in the line, and what is not. Today the focus shifts to the latter, with the Florida Atlantic/Nebraska clash on Saturday afternoon in Lincoln a setting that brings one of those potential “unfactored” edges.
Nebraska is available at -21 at some of the key offshore precincts, although -22 is more common in Las Vegas. It is a fair price for the pedigree of the programs – the fifth-year F.A.U. seniors have played nine road games against teams from power conferences, with the average line at 32.1, and for further perspective the Owls were +18 at East Carolina, +12 at South Florida and +14.5 at Rice LY, and +16 at Western Kentucky, +17 at Navy and +23 at UL-Monroe in 2012. In terms of scheduling dynamics there is an edge to Nebraska, with a game vs. McNeese State up next that creates no look-ahead, while F.A.U. must play at Alabama, which forces Charlie Partridge to manage his personnel in a different fashion, having to survive eight quarters while being badly over-matched.
There is something else that favors Nebraska, and it may be significant.
Bo Pelini is entering his 7th season as Cornhusker head coach. For the first four seasons, his brother Carl was the defensive coordinator, before leaving in 2012 to take the F.A.U. head position. It did not turn out well, with Pelini and his DC Pete Rekstis having to resign abruptly last October amidst charges of drug use, an incident the remains murky 10 months later. Of particular issue is just how “voluntary” those resignations were.
In April, Pelini made the media rounds and began to tell his side of the story. Among the more meaningful comments was this, from CBS Sports - "I trusted him (Athletic Director Pat Chun). He looked at me over the desk and said, 'If you sign this paper, I will take care of you. I'll explain what went down. We want to be clear about why you resigned.' And then he wasn't. He went back on his word and it really disappointed me."
Now fast forward to Saturday. Carl Pelini lives back in Nebraska again. If he harbors anger over what happened in Boca Raton, one can only imagine how that would make brother Bo feel. And while the elder Pelini has been extremely quiet about this leading up to the game, it would be difficult to imagine that neither the motivation, nor the fact that game-planning can be enhanced by his brother’s knowledge of the Owl personnel, has not come in to play at some point. In this pointspread range (which is actually down from a higher opener), that can matter, especially since McNeese State is actually a step-down next Saturday, which makes this a meaningful dress rehearsal before a challenging trip to Fresno in two weeks. In other words, Bo is allowed to go for the jugular here.
In the Sights…
Week #4 of the NFL pre-season can be a minefield, but that does not mean that genuine value does not exist. Being able to take +4.5 with Detroit in Buffalo may well be such a setting. In a game that will be predominantly reserves vs. reserves once a handful of starters get in a little work (the Bills still have yet to score a TD with E. J. Manuel on the field, so he will at least get the opening series or two), the last three quarters do not bring any significant advantage for the home team. In fact they may be giving up a lot in the QB rotations.
Here’s the gist: Buffalo cut Thaddeus Lewis earlier this week, and signed Jordan Palmer, who was released by Chicago. Palmer had already returned to his home in California, which made for a long trip to get to the Bills practice in time for a little work on Tuesday, and then a little more yesterday. That has been it. A couple of workouts to try to learn his teammates, and a quick cram session of the playbook. And tonight he will not be playing with the better teammates anyway. Doug Marrone’s take – “My goal is to play him as much as I can.” Palmer’s take - “Trying to get as much of the playbook as I can, trying to get an understanding of who these guys are and where they’re going to be and get the play called right and get the ball to the right guy, whether it be a pass or a run, and move the chains.”
Meanwhile the Detroit back-up QB rotation has been effective, with the Dan Orlovsky/Kellen Moore tandem combining to go 47-69-505 with a TD pass and no INTs. And do not be surprised if Matthew Stafford gets the opening series, as an adjustment to the Jim Caldwell/Joe Lombardi offense continues. Having an open “3” and an open “4” available is substantial for this kind of setting.
Vegas…
A great lunch with Bryan Leonard at Settebello in the District at Green Valley Ranch yesterday, both in terms of conversation and food. It was a chance to pick his brain before the games kickoff, especially with key issues involving some M.A.C. teams from the get-go (there might not be anyone in the marketplace that knows that conference better).
Settebello is also a prime place to begin a football season. It has been quite a success story for Brad Otton, former Southern Cal QB, who saw his taste buds transformed by true “Napoletana” pizza while on a Mormon mission to Italy (after his stint at Weber State, and before his transfer to SC). When a knee injury cut short his NFL attempts he went back to Italy and studied the genre further, and has worked hard enough to make his dream a reality – Las Vegas was location #2 when it first opened (on Horizon Ridge, before moving to the current spot), and now there a total of eight, including two here in town (140 South Green Valley Parkway, and 9350 West Sahara).
As the Napoletana concept gains traction in the marketplace, some of the pizzaiolos are getting even closer to their roots. Carmine D’Amato came over from Italy for the first Las Vegas shop, fortunately making this his permanent home, and his special this week was “Pizza Pere y Gorgonzola” – thinly sliced pears, gorgonzola and mozzarella, quail egg, toasted walnuts and basil. And don’t you dare bring any of that “That Isn’t Real Pizza” talk. This is the product in its oldest and purest form, with a quality crust, fresh ingredients, and in particular the deft way of occasionally using fruit for a sweet-salt-fat combination that works so well when done right, with the nuts adding flavor and texture. There are no globs of cheap salty meats or cheeses that are meant as much to confuse the taste buds as please them (although admittedly that version does indeed have its place and time); this is about understanding the balance to bring quality ingredients together and showcase them, a genuine craft.