Another very stern test on The Florida Swing for PGA Tour players this week as they head to The Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor to tame The Snake Pit and The Copperhead Course. This week I am looking at some similar characteristics to what it takes to win at a PGA Championship or a US Open.. as opposed to a Masters or British Open. Less scrambling, bombing, and creativity and more straight and arrow.. accuracy off the tee, greens in regulation, wedge game/approach shots, par 5 performance as this is an opportunity that will need to be taken advantage of, and of course, putting.
As far as an outright winner.. I am not playing any of these but I like somebody like Harris English or Matt Kuchar at 15-to-1, who are both in very good form right now and have all of the strengths we are pinpointing this week. Luke Donald has a brilliant history here and is worth a look at 20-1. Jim Furyk is a possibility too at 25-1 as is Gary Woodland at 30-1.
March Madness is upon us in the basketball world and that makes for a ton of golfers coming to Las Vegas who need tee times, so I have been quite busy this week and was not able to shoot a Pregame video with my "Well Oiled B Team" colleagues, David Glisan and Steve Fezzik.. so I will do what I can here in the forum in the way of Freebies..
Jim Furyk (-155) over Brandt Snedeker. A heavy price to lay but I do feel this is a mismatch on this type of course - perfectly suited for Furyk's game, who happens to have a great history here including a victory in 2010.
Freddie Jacobson (-120) over Chesson Hadley. Jacobson's stats don't line up perfectly with this track but he finds a way to get it done on difficult golf courses and has faired well in the past at Riviera, another ball strikers venue. However, this is more of a play against Hadley, who has been playing very well and finally made it to the winner's circle last week in Puerto Rico but for me that means it's time to fade the newly crowned champion who is likely still trying to catch his breath and calm down after getting his first PGA Tour victory and eclipsing the 1-million dollar mark. While he's thinking about how he is going to spend his money, we'll bank on The Junkman.
Finally, I will take a shot with Brooks Koepka (-130) over Peter Uihlein. Koepka is a long ball hitter and too, not entirely suited perfectly for Copperhead but he is a Florida resident and is loaded with talent. Gary Woodland is a bomber with a ton of talent and despite up and down success here at this course, one of his ups was a Tour victory. Koepka could pull the same trick.
For my Premium Plays, you can find them here.. http://pregame.com/pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=86670#capper
Don't delay, the action starts EARLY! like 4:40am Pacific Time on Thursday.
Enjoy the golf and have fun!
Brady, Enjoy you insane week in Vegas! Thanks for the picks! I agree that Kuchar, Woodland or especially Luke Donald could win this thing. Kuchar is playing great under the radar. Woodland is a past winner that doesn't have to hit the driver on quite a few of these holes. Luke is an amazing putter and just kills it at Copperhead. I would also add Brooks Koepka (+8500). He's a rising young star and would love to crack into the top 50. He has a goal of getting to Augusta, and no better way than to win! He can absolutely rocket his 3 wood, which gives him the accuracy to possibly NOT hit his monster driver on occasion. Bill Haas(+3000) is a veteran that has a very steady game. He missed the cut here in 2011, but has improved so much since then. His Greens in Regulation and Scrambling make him a threat at Copperhead. In a H2H, I'll take Luke Donald(+104) over Jordan Spieth. Jordan is a great player, but Luke dominates on this course and is one of the best putters around. Have an amazing week!!
Thanks, Jotini. Koepka looking good early on. He'd be a great guy to have emerge on the scene. I'll be rooting for him!
Here are all of my plays for the week now that they are all underway..
Jim Furyk (-155) over Brandt Snedeker (Free Pick)
Freddie Jacobson (-120) over Chesson Hadley (Free Pick)
Brooks Koepka (-130) over Peter Uihlein (Free Pick)
Cameron Tringale (-125) over Pat Perez (Lean)
George McNeill (-105) over Kevin Na (Lean)
Graham DeLaet (+105) over Justin Rose (Premium Play - 1 Unit)
Russell Knox (-125) over Louis Oosthuizen (Premium Play - 1 Unit)
Charley Hoffman (-115) over Bryce Molder (Premium Play - 1 Unit)
Sang-Moon Bae (+125) over Luke Guthrie (Premium Play - 1 Unit)
Third Round thoughts for The Valspar Championship at The Copperhead Course..
These are not official plays as I typically do not get into mid tournament match ups on regular Tour events but @koldazzice1 reached out to me on Twitter last night asking about some single round plays and I told him I would look into it for the weekend. I have come up with just these two..
John Merrick (+155) over Matt Every (3rd Round Only)
Matt Kuchar (-120) over Luke Donald (3rd Round Only)
Thanks for the shout Koldazzice Enjoy Moving Day and have fun!
thx bud looking good - like the big dog.
Priced way too high in my opinion. Definitely worth a shot at that number.
Root 'em home!
A nice week for us and a good golf tournament to watch. I love watching a course that is tough enough to derail a few people, tough enough that everybody is going to make a bogey here and there, but also fair enough that everybody has a chance to go low. It made for good drama all week long and for some good results for us as the handicap of the course and players held true.
Jim Furyk (-155) over Brandt Snedeker (Free Pick) WIN
Freddie Jacobson (-120) over Chesson Hadley (Free Pick) LOSS
Brooks Koepka (-130) over Peter Uihlein (Free Pick) WIN
Cameron Tringale (-125) over Pat Perez (Lean) WIN
George McNeill (-105) over Kevin Na (Lean) LOSS
Graham DeLaet (+105) over Justin Rose (Premium Play - 1 Unit) PUSH
Russell Knox (-125) over Louis Oosthuizen (Premium Play - 1 Unit) WIN
Charley Hoffman (-115) over Bryce Molder (Premium Play - 1 Unit) WIN
Sang-Moon Bae (+125) over Luke Guthrie (Premium Play - 1 Unit) WIN
6-2-and-1 overall. 3-0-and-1 where it counts and up 3.25 Units.
Thank you all for the conversation in the forum and on twitter during the tourney. See ya at Bay Hill!