2012 College FB PAC 12 SOUTH Conference Predications from Joe Gavazzi
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PAC 12 South
USC Trojans
Lane Kiffin (2 yrs.)
The Trojans survived two years of NCAA probation which coincided with the 1st 2 years of the Kiffin regime. After a back slide to 8-5 in 2010; they rebounded to 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS last season. With 16 returning starters, led by QB Barkley, a prime contender for the Heisman trophy, the men of Troy are the odds on favorite to get to the PAC 12 title game and challenge for National superiority! With the offense returning virtually intact, look for them to improve on the 36 PPG and 457 yards of last year. The same improvement can be expected from a defense who during the probation seasons, allowed a combined average of 25 PPG and 387 yards. Even against the explosive PAC 12 offenses, this will be a daunting unit! It’s been 4 years since USC owned the college football landscape in the early years of this millennium; this year they are back as part of the cream of the crop!
UTAH Utes
Kyle Whittingham (7 yrs.)
This is the second year for Utah as part of the PAC 12. After transitioning into the league, I expect them to make a huge splash this season as one of the top teams in the league. Prior to last season’s record of 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS, the Utes had a combined record of 33-6 the previous 3 years; including outright underdog Bowl wins versus Alabama and California in 2 of the previous 3 years. Last year they dropped their first 4 PAC 10 contests in starting the year 3-4 SU; they then finished the season on a 5-1 SU ATS run (including a 30-27 Bowl win versus Georgia Tech), to enter this season with great momentum. Utah will do so as one of the most experienced teams in the league. 16 returning starts are highlighted by 9 on the offensive side of the ball, led by veteran Junior QB, Jordan Wynn. As always, the Utah defense, which has allowed an average of 20 PPG since 2005 will be tough to score on. Led by underrated HC, Whittingham, one cannot discount the fact that the Utes have a +46 net turnover margin in the last 6 yrs. consistently giving them extra possessions in the game. It’s always a solid proposition to consider the Utes in an underdog role where they stand 17-10 ATS, L 10 Y. Could one of the biggest upsets of the young season happen when they host USC, at altitude on October 4?
UCLA Bruins
Jim Mora (*)
No longer will the Bruins be bound by the shackles that were former HC, Neuheisel! It can’t be overlooked that UCLA had a -20 net turnover margin during “slick” Rick’s tenure. Welcome new HC, Jim Mora, the former HC of Seattle and Atlanta in the NFL! Under his guidance UCLA will be looking for a return to prominence. In the last 9 years, they had more than 7 victories only once, and in the last 4 years under Neuheisel they were a combined 21-30. If that improvement is to happen, UCLA’s offense and defense must improve. Veteran QB, Prince will have first crack at leading an offense that averaged 21 PPG L 4 Y, never topping 377 YPG. The bigger improvement must come on the defensive side of the ball where 9 returning starters look to better the 31 PPG, 419 yds. and 5.2 YPR they allowed in the last two years combined. UCLA will improve, but not enough to challenge the top teams.
Arizona Wildcats
Rich Rodriguez (1st year)
After 3 consecutive winning seasons, Arizona tumbled to 4-8 SU ATS last year. Eighth year HC, Stoops, was fired after a 1-5 start following 3 consecutive Bowl appearances; so much for loyalty! The Wildcats bounced back to finish 3-3 and regain a semblance of pride. Now they must transition to new HC, Rodriguez, the former HC at Michigan and West Virginia. He brings his unique wide open offense and 3-3-5 defense; with it comes good news and bad news. The good news is that his PAC 10 rivals are unfamiliar with this offense and defense; the bad news is the 6 returning starters on each side of the ball must learn these new schemes. This may be particularly challenging for a defense that allowed 35 points and 461 yds. last year. The good news on offense is that highly touted QB, Matt Scott is among the best pure passers that Rich Rod has coached in his unique offensive sets. How fast he picks up the offense will go a long way in determining Arizona’s fate this season.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Todd Graham (1st yr.)
The welcome mat was pulled out from under veteran HC Erickson, when he completed a 4 yr. run of 21-28, culminating with a 6-7S U, 3-9 ATS record including a 56-24 defeat to Boise State in the Bowl game. It culminating a particularly frustrating season that had seen the Sun Devils start the season at 6-2 SU including 4-1 in Pac 10 play. 4 consecutive season ending losses sealed Erickson’s fate. Welcome 1st year HC. Todd Graham! The peripatetic mentor and who had 1 yr. stints at Rice and Pitt, sandwiched around his 4 yrs. at Tulsa. Clearly this guy has little allegiance! He will step into a tough situation with just 4 returning starters on each side of the ball, and the loss of QB Osweiler, one of the best QBs in the league last year. This is clearly a transition year for Arizona State; with players on both sides of the ball needing to learn the complex offense of Graham who brings with him his own loyal coordinators.
Colorado Buffalos
Jon Embree (1 yr.)
It looks like the Buffs will have a hard time escaping the basement. Colorado’s first year in transition to the PAC 12 in 2011 they went 3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS including 2-7 SU ATS in league play. Most problematic for second year HC Embree has a defense that allowed 37 points and 439 yds. last year. With 6 returning starters, they could well have again the weakest defense in the league. Of even greater concern is an inexperienced offense with just 3 returning starters. With only 59% of their letterman returning, it is clearly a case of a 2nd rebuilding year in the HC Embree regime. Any conference win might be an upset for a Colorado team which has not posted a winning record since 2005.
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