11/15 9:00 AM CF (329) ARMY at (330) WESTERN KENTUCKY
FREE PICK: (329) ARMY +10
There’s no real way to sell Army. The Cadets are one dimensional offensively and I don’t think there are any All-American candidates on the defense. Nevertheless, this underdog appears to me to be in a favorable spot to notch a spread win on Saturday as they journey to Western Kentucky.
In terms of the fundamentals, the one thing Army does well is the one thing Western Kentucky has a bad time defending. The Hilltoppers are vulnerable to any good running game, and that’s pretty much all the Cadets want to do. I will have to admit there’s some trepidation here, Western Kentucky has already faced an option attack this season, so familiarity with the Army attack won’t likely be an issue. But that doesn’t mean Army can’t have some success churning out yards and getting some points in this game.
I like the situation for Army. They got a nice win last Saturday against Connecticut and I much prefer backing an underdog when they’ve got a little positive momentum. This is also a revenge matchup for Army, and they won’t need to be reminded about the tough loss they absorbed to this opponent last season. The Cadets were in good shape to get a win until Western Kentucky put together a late drive and scored the game winning touchdown with just 35 TICKS remaining to be played. Army had led the game 10-0 and played the Hilltoppers to a dead heat on the stat sheet, so this clearly qualified as a tough loss.
This is not a pure dead spot for Western Kentucky, as they need two more wins to get the magic six figure and with a trip to Marshall to finish the season, this is basically a must win for the Hilltoppers. But they’re off what I would call a fortunate win against UTEP, and it’s a non-league clash with a team they beat last year.
Make no mistake, the Hilltoppers got lucky last week. UTEP was about to go up two scores in the fourth quarter, and with the way the Miners were chewing up their hosts with the run game, a Western Kentucky rally was at the very least unlikely. But Hilltoppers DB Wonderful Terry made the biggest play of the game with a huge pick-six that covered 90 yards and UTEP was basically never heard from again as Western Kentucky got the eight-point win.
I can’t say that it’s a huge bounce spot for the favorite, but it’s really not ideal either. Army did a nice JOB last week against a team with a better defense than the one they’ll see here and I believe the Cadets could enjoy a bit of a motivational advantage in this game. Plenty of wiggle room with the line being double digits, so I’m taking those points with Army.
---
More free content, including daily free picks, now on my homepage
I don't fire a lot of big plays, and I don't often have best bets on the biggest games. Both are available in my biggest Pregame package ever.