CUBS (Arrieta) @ PIRATES (Happ)
Take: CUBS -125
The Pirates made some minor adds at the deadline, with one of this pickups being lefty JA Happ. The veteran southpaw will make his Bucs debut tonight. Happ draws a very tough mound adversary this evening as Jake Arrieta throw for the Cubs.
I see a big edge here for Arrieta. He’s had an outstanding season to date. Errata has now arrived at that point where even when he’s not at his best, he’ll usually find a way to grind out six innings and give his team a decent chance to win the game.
The Pirates should be thrilled if they can get six okay frames from Happ. He was really struggling for the Mariners and while the change in scenery might be beneficial, Happ is definitely not what I’d call a go with guy at the present time. Happ has had serious command issues of late. His control has been less than stellar and his strikes are getting too much of the plate on a regular basis. Happ doesn’t have great stuff to begin with, and if he’s not locating properly, he’s can get overwhelmed by big league hitters.
With the rainout on Monday night, the Cubs five-game winning streak remains intact. So even though the overall team data would favor the Pirates, that’s more than offset by the edge on the mound with Arrieta vs. Happ and the current form that favors the Cubs. The oddsmakers have made a good adjustment with the road team a decent sized favorite, but I believe there’s ample reason to accept the price and play the Cubs as road chalk.
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