09/15 04:10 PM MLB (901) WASHINGTON NATIONALS at (902) ATLANTA BRAVES
FREE PICK: (902) ATLANTA BRAVES +123
Stephen Strasburg is one of the better pitchers in all of baseball. He’s got great control, pure swing and miss stuff and can be absolutely dominating when he’s got his best stuff. Yet, in spite of the fact the Nationals are going to win the NL East and might well be playing well into October, Strasburg is stuck at .500 with a flat 11-11 ledger. Being one who’s metrically inclined, that 11-11 is pretty misleading. But for whatever reason, Strasburg continues to be unlucky as far as the W/L record is concerned.
Part of Strasburg’s problem is his weird record against the Atlanta Braves. One would think this should be an ideal opponent for Strasburg. The Braves have a bunch of grip it and rip it players who have trouble making consistent contact. Strasburg is about as good as it gets when it comes to collecting K’s. But he just cannot beat this team, and in fact, his numbers against the Braves are pretty mediocre.
Strasburg has faced the Braves four times this year, and Nats are 0-4 in those games, with Strasburg absorbing three of the losses. Over the past two seasons, the Nats are 2-7 when Strasburg pitches against the Braves. The two wins didn’t involve Strasburg. He was ejected after one inning in one of those games, and pitched only two innings in the other Washington win. Make no mistake, the Braves are Strasburg’s main nemesis.
Ervin Santana goes for the Braves tonight, and this guy has been money in the bank at home. The Braves have won each of his last eight home starts with Santana standing 7-0 in that stretch. His numbers against the Nats this season are not good at all, but that’s the only fly in Santana’s ointment right now.
This is do or die for the Braves. They’re not just one game over .500, and Atlanta is four games out of the wild card with only 13 opportunities for wins remaining. So make no mistake, tonight’s game is a must win for this squad. They’re off a wrong way sweep at Texas, which amounts to an unforgivable sin at this point. The Braves now play ten straight home games, and they’ve been a decent team in the host role. I think it’s realistic to offer that they need to win at least eight of these ten battles to have a chance at one of the two wild cards, so they’ve simply got to win tonight or it might be lights out.
Must win sure doesn’t mean will win. But the Braves have the right home pitcher going tonight in Santana, and for reasons I cannot figure out, Atlanta owns Strasburg. I’m going to try to coax the desperately needed win from the Braves tonight.
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We are up over 25 units this baseball season. Most will be betting the MNF game, but I go to where the value is. Rare 3* MLB Best Bet on Monday