Saturday, May 27

We're nearly two months into this 2017 baseball season.

Some of the big mainstream storylines are the Houston Astros with the best record through 48 games. The Colorado Rockies going 10-1 in one-run games to post the best mark in the National League through 47 games. The New York Yankees possibly returning to glory. The rebuilding Milwaukee Brewers' surprising record.

On the flip side, is the mediocre play of the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox.

But what about from a wagering standpoint? What has stood out from this more arcane baseball realm?

I'd say it has been the huge number of games going above the total.

The Over has cashed 55 percent of the time through Thursday at 402-332-30 with 19 of the 30 teams playing more Overs than Unders. Another two teams - Minnesota and and the Chicago White Sox - playing an equal number of over/unders.

There are eight teams that have gone Over in at least 60 percent of their games headed by the New York Mets at 29-9-6 (76%), Cubs 28-15-2 (65%) and Brewers 29-16-1 (64%).

Some of the high rate of Overs can be explained by the combination of veterans having career seasons such as Justin Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Avisail Garcia, Mark Reynolds, Miguel Sano, Eric Thames and young players breaking out into potential stars. That list would include Corey Dickerson, Zach Cosart, Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Michael Conforto, and Chris Owings.

This goes in hand with lots of star pitchers being hurt. The Mariners, for instance, are minus their four top starters. Among injured pitchers are Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, David Price, Corey Kluber, Felix Hernandez, Jameson Tallion, Steven Matz and Jon Gray.

Of course there's also a scarcity of quality starters, which is a problem every year, along with bad middle relievers. There should be no excuse for Mike Pelfrey, Bronson Arroyo, Phil Hughes and Jered Weaver to still be pitching in the major leagues. Yet all were on starting rotations although Weaver recently was mercifully put on the DL.

Another factor for the high propensity of Overs is a shrinking strike zone. The baseball union said no last year to the recommendation of MLB's Competition Committee to raise the strike zone in order to speed up games. It sure seems, though, that umpires aren't calling strikes anymore on pitches below the knee. This has forced pitchers to throw higher and into the hitter's wheelhouse. Home runs have been on a record pace.

So pay attention when certain umpires are slated to be behind the plate such as:

Bill Welke 45-19 (70%) Overs the past three years, including 9-1 this season.

Dale Scott 36-16 (69%) Overs the past three years, including 2-0 this season.

Jim Wolf 42-23 (65%) Overs the past three years, including 8-1 this season.

Doug Eddings 36-22 (62%) Overs the past three years, including 6-1 this season.

Manny Gonzalez 75-48 (61%) Overs the past five years, including 6-1 this season.

I don't see the percentage of Overs dropping either. We're not too far away from heading into hot weather where pitchers start to wear down and some teams pack it in bringing up youngsters to pitch and gain experience.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 31-17-1 on his last 49 premium/free plays. He is 13-4-1 on his last 18 Triple Star plays. Stephen is 31-16-1 (66%) on his last 48 NBA plays and 65-41-1 (61%) on his last 107 NBA plays. He also is 29-19 on his past 48 baseball plays up 20.3 units during this span and 16-6-1 on his last 23 hockey plays up 24 units during this time frame.)