The Tigers aren't getting the timely hit, or it's right at someone, or it just missed. Verlander isn't helping after look great early. I love Fridays' card, and here's one off of it. We have two 3* plays and more for Friday.
928 HOU / 927 BALOVER 9 Pinnacle
Padres/Nationals: I'd always look to not do the obvious first, which is take Washington. If Perdomo is "on" he's inducing a lot of ground ball outs, and the downside is that only three times in his career has he completed seven innings. Surprisingly, one of those was here in Washington last year. Max is probably Max, allowing a token run or two, giving way to the bullpen in the 8th. A bullpen that hasn't been very good, which would concern me, because heading into Thursday night in New York the Padres pen has been solid of late. San Diego has been a very good "over" team this year, and with a reasonable breeze expected from left-to-right that may be worth looking at.
St. Louis/Colorado: It will be instinctive for many people to stay on the Colorado train, and I get that. I have to look at all the options, and it is indeed a first-game back, no day off, and coming from the East Coast. I do worry about Senzatela's increasing pitch count and his walks, especially since the Cardinals tend to be one of the more patient teams. Some bettors might be high on Martinez after his two-hitter against the Giants. First consider the competition and let's not over react, because in a very limited sample size Colorado's lineup has all seen and hit him. I'm inclined to think both teams score, and that's always the first thought in a Rockies' home game, and because of that the totals are usually inflated a bit. It was almost inevitable that Colorado would regress at the plate, and in fact the market said so. Often times that can be the start of a new trend, and not a good one to follow.
Chicago/Los Angeles: Arrieta has been on my "fade" list this season, and I don't like the fact that Arietta threw 111 pitches last week. The only other time this season he's been over 100 he was hammered (at Boston) the following game. Wood comes in off a gem at Miami, but in truth that's been the rule rather than the exception with him this season. He's allowed exactly one home run this season and given up exactly zero runs in his last three starts. One of those starts was at Colorado, as a matter of fact. The Cubs are flying in from Chicago with no rest (and having lost), while the Dodgers have been at home, so you've got to like the home team here, all things being equal.
St. Louis/Colorado: It will be instinctive for many people to stay on the Colorado train, and I get that. I have to look at all the options, and it is indeed a first-game back, no day off, and coming from the East Coast. I do worry about Senzatela's increasing pitch count and his walks, especially since the Cardinals tend to be one of the more patient teams. Some bettors might be high on Martinez after his two-hitter against the Giants. First consider the competition and let's not over react, because in a very limited sample size Colorado's lineup has all seen and hit him. I'm inclined to think both teams score, and that's always the first thought in a Rockies' home game, and because of that the totals are usually inflated a bit. It was almost inevitable that Colorado would regress at the plate, and in fact the market said so on Thursday. Often times that can be the start of a new trend, and not a good one to follow.
Tampa Bay/Minnesota: It's hard not to think about an under in this park with these two offenses and these two starters. If and when Archer gets beat, it's with the long ball, and this park holds fly balls. The Rays are at a situation-disadvantage having played and beaten the Angels on Thursday, while the Twins had the day off. That may not be enough to keep me off of the Rays simply because they've hit Santiago (in a limited sample size) and they didn't need to dig deep into their pen Thursday, thanks to Andriese going eight innings. It might be easy to overlook the fact that the Twins just swept the Orioles in Baltimore, and their pen has been outstanding. But, everything is situational and it looks to me like Santiago may be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Los Angeles/Miami: Obviously the Angels are sans the DH in Miami and facing the Marlins best starter, and Miami will be more rested having had Thursday off. The biggest key to a Marlins bet is whether or not Yelich plays, as in my opinion he's the most valuable player on that team. Phelps being out (personal) has an effect on the Miami bullpen, and not a positive one, either. Chavez was knocked around in his last start, which was actually predictable given that he had two high pitch-count games prior, so he may be in better shape here than at first glance. And remember, the Angels saw plenty of Straily when he was with Oakland, so there's some familiarity there. Although the easy bet would be the Marlins, without Phelps and if Yelich is out, that's another candidate for the public disaster play. If the Angels weren't having trouble scoring this would be an easy call on Los Angeles. It still might be. We'll also have to see how badly Maybin is after leaving Thursday's game.
Atlanta/San Francisco: As I alluded to referencing the Dodgers game, the Giants are coming in from Chicago while the Braves are flying out from Atlanta, so neither team is going to be overly rested. The instinctive thing to do would be to fade Matt Cain, one would think, especially after two taxing (a lot of pitches) games. Garcia can go either way, so any bet I may or may not make will be predicated on figuring him out. Atlanta giving up a ton of runs to the Pirates on Thursday isn't a huge concern, since the bulk was either off of Colon early, or Sam Freeman when it really didn't matter - Sam needed the work. After losing to the Cubs, the Giants long plane ride isn't going to be a happy one, either. Atlanta got their emotions out early against the Pirates, and they're playing much better than expected without Freeman. However, this will be the first time they go on the road without him, so truly, the value here probably lies in the total. As is usual for this time of year the wind is blowing straight out, but as usual it's one of the best pitchers' park year in and year out.
Texas/Toronto: It's a great situation for the Blue Jays, having beaten the Brewers in Milwaukee and having a day off. Seemingly, they are getting their act together as much as one can without Donaldson and Pearce. Texas gets no rest, coming up from Boston, and the Rangers continue to be perhaps the biggest enigma in baseball. Griffin was pulverized in Detroit last week and I'd like to think he rebounds from that. But, a closer look at his season finds that, yes, he's got a great W/L record, but he's had either great run support or pitched well against the Padres or Oakland. It would certainly be tough to back Bolsinger as well. The Jays will obviously have the more rested bullpen, but that may not be enough. The roof won't be open, or taking the over would be a no-brainer, if there is such a thing. It still might be, especially if Texas uses much bullpen in Boston, and assuming the "A" lineups are in. You'd expect the Jays to have everyone in with a day off.
Oakland/New York: The A's with a day off to travel East, but the A's are 5-16 on the road, and when you get their bullpen away from that big park in Oakland, they're not very good. At all. Graveman is certainly one of their best options if you are thinking about the big dog, but he had a rare 105 pitch game last outing and he should give way to the pen sooner rather than later. Sabathia has been stellar in his last two starts, so there will indeed be money on the Yankees that might not have been there two weeks ago. In some of the splits against the A's there may be enough cracks to think Oakland does score some, and the weather might be conducive for an "over" once the late afternoon showers pass through, which is only magnified by the Yankees pen since Chapman has been on the DL.
Detroit/Chicago: Let's play two, which could be a bad thing for Detroit given they'll play in Houston Thursday night, then travel. On the other hand Chicago come back from a long West Coast trip, but does get a day off. Their starters got simply drilled for ten days, while their bullpen was spectacular, posting a .90 WHIP over the last week. The Tigers are surely going to be gassed playing that run 'n shoot game in Houston, and as of right now I can't make a case for Boyd, and less of a case for Farmer. We'll surely want to see lineups before taking the plunge.
Saturday Day Games - We don't get outworked, that I will assure you - here's my initial take on them. Lots more to be done. It beats flipping coins.
Oakland/Yankees:
I like the Yankees here at first glance. Manaea is a fly ball pitcher that's apparently been the beneficiary of pitching in the big park in Oakland. Add to that the fact that he's pitched through the sixth inning only once this season. Sabathia got some extra rest with a rainout, but of course we just don't know what to expect from him from one game to the next.
Texas/Toronto:
The knee-jerk reaction is that we'll see a pitchers' duel between Darvish and Estrada, especially after Estrada's great game at Baltimore last week. But because of that game and his 115 pitches I will proceed with caution if we back him. Given Darvish's success against Toronto it's tough not to like Texas, at least for the first five innings.
Tigers/White Sox: Fulmer hasn't allowed more than three earned runs this season, and he's typically a ground ball pitcher, which usually makes me look at the "under" in his starts. With Detroits' bullpen, that could be a better first-five inning bet. Holland has thrown a lot of pitches in his last three starts, and usually I'd look to back him (or anyone) against his former team.
Seattle/Boston:
Brian Johnson just isn't someone I want to back, but he's been solid at Pawtucket since that one early-season game. He keeps the ball in the park which is half the battle in Fenway or against a team like Seattle. Lawrence doesn't have a great pedigree, but if you look close he does have the ability to keep the ball down, so while people may be looking for runs here, I might look at the under since the total will be inflated, at least early (F5) since there's no familiarity here at all, giving (usually) the pitchers the early advantage.
Padres/Nationals:
Quietly, the Padres have become an "over" team this season. Clearly with Strasburg on the mound against a LHP the Nationals are going to be expensive, and I'd caution people to take the plunge. Richard is a ground ball pitcher that shut out the Dodgers and held Arizona to one run, twice. Let's not forget that unless Strasburg goes really deep, the Nationals' bullpen isn't very good.
Reds/Phillies:
I was all set to unload on the Phillies the other night when Arroyo was scheduled to pitch, prior to a rain out. I am probably going to again, and the over - I really don't care what the number is because the Phillies pen is equally as bad as Cincinnati's. That may be a good play if for no other reason than the fact that the Reds saw Eickhoff for the first time earlier this season.
Royals/Indians:
I suppose the instinctive reaction would be to hop aboard the Indians train with Salazar pitching. But, he's having a terrible season and was roughed up by the Royals already this season. Often times the pitcher makes the adjustments the next time around, but I'm not sure I trust him to do that. I'm not sure which Vargas we're going to see. If it's the one that pitched the last two games against the Yankees then the Royals might be in trouble. If it's the earlier version, they've got a chance. I tend to think the former and that there are runs here, but the Indians pen clearly has an advantage, so perhaps a first-five look.
Arizona/Milwaukee:
Sooner or later Grienke will lose a game, and with a bunch of 100+ pitch games lately one might think he's vulnerable on the road. The problem here is that none of the Brewers have seen him, making the home underdog a very tough sell. Anderson is a fly ball pitcher and in the wrong park for that, and the only thing he's got going for him is that Arizona hasn't seen much of him, but that's probably not enough to push me off the ledge here.
Angels/Marlins:
My first thought here is the Angels since Ramirez has had four straight games with double-digit ground ball outs. However, he's also given up five home runs in his last three starts, so in truth he can go either way here. Not having a DH is clearly to his advantage. Nicolino is making only his third start after beating Atlanta (soundly) at home and getting hammered by the Dodgers (in LA). He hasn't shown himself worth betting on, and if it were any other team other than the unpredictable Angels, fading him would be easy. It still might be.