I am not a high volume MLB player, releasing only one or two plays on most days. That 'extremely selective' strategy has worked well for me over the years, and I have no intention of changing it in 2015.
In most years, about half of my service plays are on totals, and the vast majority of those total bets are on Overs. There's something that feels very right about cashing a winning bet in the third or fourth inning, needing only to avoid a rain-shortened game. And frankly, when betting Overs, that endless stream of bullpen meltdowns is a benefit, not a nightmare.
Baseball, more than any other sport, has adapted to the modern era of 'advanced metrics/analytics' in the betting marketplace. You might find a few starting pitchers that are mispriced in April, but the 'wiseguy' stats get incorporated into the markets very quickly. That's why I focus MUCH less on starting pitching matchups than many 'cappers do.
My strategy is simple (in theory). I like to look for things that advanced metrics don't measure well. And I like to concentrate on two things that, in my opinion, are not factored into the betting markets correctly -- short term lineup fluctuations and long term bullpen capability.
Bad bullpens are a key for Over bets and a key for assessing a team's capability. When squads routinely blow late leads, it's a locker room killer, a season killer. Nine teams returned more than three units of profit for their supporters last year: Baltimore, Seattle, Pittsburgh, San Fran, the LA Angels, the LA Dodgers, the New York Mets, Washington and KC. 7 of those nine teams finished among the Top 10 in bullpen ERA.
Bottom feeders (on the moneyline) in MLB last year included Arizona, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Boston, Texas and Cincinnati. Just like with the 'good bullpen' teams, there's a STRONG correlation between bad bullpens and bad moneyline results.
As crazy as it sounds, hot or cold lineups have very little influence on the betting markets at any given time. I always look for limited offensive ballclubs that are on a tear; teams that can cash Over bets again and again before they cool off, because their totals are based on season long numbers. Similarly, I look for potent offensive squads that are in the midst of a nasty slump for many of my Under recommendations.
Here's the link to get onboard with a weekly, monthly or seasonal package:
pregame.com/.../bettor.aspx