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Nover's View: Monday Free NBA Play

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Thread Starter Nover's View: Monday Free NBA Play
Stephen Nover
Joined: 08/16/2007
Posts: 1687
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76ers plus 21 at Spurs

This is the biggest point spread of the year. On paper, it certainly seems like the line is right. San Antonio has the best record in the NBA. The Spurs are in great form winning their last 13 games, while covering their past seven games. They have a deep bench making them strong in garbage time.

So why get involved with the 76ers, who have taken tanking to a new level?

Normally I wouldn't bother with Philly. I've only held my nose up once playing the 76ers since they pulled off this stunner - losing by 45 to the Clippers on Feb. 9 and following that up the next evening losing by 43 to the Warriors.

Following those games, there should have been a clamor for the 76ers to be removed from the NBA and become the new opponent for the Harlem Globetrotters.

But the 76ers have a lot going for themselves in this matchup as far as staying within three touchdowns - more than meets the eye.

First, Philly is playing OK. The 76ers have covered five of their last six, including the last four. They have lost by an average of seven points during their last four games.

The NBA league office is well aware the 76ers have been a total embarrassment. No team wants the humiliation of losing to Philadelphia, which has lost a mind-boggling 24 in a row. But the flip side is there could be an unwritten code perhaps tacitly expressed to referees and opposing coaches not to go out of their way to embarrass the 76ers further.

The 76ers have a couple of good players in Thaddeus Young, Michael Carter-Williams and improving Henry Sims, but they also have eight former D League players on their roster. Yet in their last four games, the 76ers lost by nine to the Pacers on the road, by eight to the Bulls, by one to the red-hot Knicks at home and by 10 at Chicago. These were competitive games.

If there is one coach who shouldn't run up a score on the 76ers it's Gregg Popovich. He's the mentor to 76ers rookie head coach Brett Brown, who spent the previous 12 seasons in the San Antonio organization, including the last seven as a key assistant to Popovich before taking the 76ers job in August. Brown is popular with San Antonio's players, who shouldn't go out of their way to bury Brown's team knowing what he's gone through this season. It makes no difference to San Antonio if it wins by 12 or 16.

The spot isn't great either for the Spurs. This is their first game back from a three-game West Coast trip that concluded late Saturday night. There's no reason for Popovich to play his starters big minutes in this game especially since the Spurs play a home-road series against Denver on Wednesday and Thursday. The Nuggets are far more respectable with Ty Lawson back running the point.

On the handicapping front, I am 10-4 on my last 14 paid/free NBA plays and coming off a 3-0 Sunday, which included a free pick winner on the Raptors, a Triple Star winner on Baylor over Creighton and a Game of the Week winner on the Lakers over the Magic. I have my NBA Slam Dunk play going today in addition to this free selection. It can be found here along with my records: http://pregame.com/pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=7746#capper.

As always, no bad luck! 

Stephen Nover: My Best Bets | Free Picks |My Blogs
A genuine sports betting journalist
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blunted
Joined: 02/19/2013
Posts: 281
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Nice insight and like the angle.  

Danny Action
Joined: 07/12/2012
Posts: 2769
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On it as well I like you're points good luck Stephen!

SharkMan23
Joined: 06/11/2012
Posts: 4685
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Nover, we don't know for sure that coaches and referees are going to help the sixes out. You don't know that and are just speculating......

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB12033.33-175.00
4loveofthegame
Joined: 12/22/2008
Posts: 41
Practice Squad
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Great insight Nover... The Spurs are definitely capable of covering that spread in this game. But as a Spurs fan for 20 years and counting i dont see them going out of their way to embarass a man that has been part of our tradition for years before he got his break. Great write up my friend....

Stephen Nover
Joined: 08/16/2007
Posts: 1687
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Top 500 Contributor

Thanks everyone for your comments and insights. I see the number has dipped down to 20 1/2.

You are right of course Sharkman. I am just speculating that opposing coaches and refs aren't looking on purpose to bury the 76ers. It wouldn't shock me, though, if this were true. The 76ers have just been terrible for the NBA until their recent covering run by being so uncompetitive.

Stephen Nover: My Best Bets | Free Picks |My Blogs
A genuine sports betting journalist
Pick Virgins: $25 FREE! Buyers: 10% rebate!

Mojo
Joined: 11/02/2011
Posts: 624
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Nice last second meaningless 3 up by 19, are you kidding me??This is why I don't bet NBA anymore..

SharkMan23
Joined: 06/11/2012
Posts: 4685
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Top 150 Contributor

It like the Spurs player knew what the line on the game was and he tried to purposely cover the spread

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB12033.33-175.00
Mojo
Joined: 11/02/2011
Posts: 624
All American
Not Ranked

Of course Diaw knew the spread..I knew this bet was dead when I saw 84% bets on it..oh well back to CBB and ca$hing this was probably the 3rd NBA bet I made all year and I won't do another one till maybe the final..

Stephen Nover
Joined: 08/16/2007
Posts: 1687
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Top 500 Contributor

It's even tougher to take because it was Boris Diaw, who has a limited shooting range.

Still, I wouldn't classify it as a bad beat. Just another NBA game that fell in the mix decided by randomness garbage at the end - which often is the case with lottery teams taking inflated numbers.

Stephen Nover: My Best Bets | Free Picks |My Blogs
A genuine sports betting journalist
Pick Virgins: $25 FREE! Buyers: 10% rebate!

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