(873) UTAH JAZZ at (874) DENVER NUGGETS
Free Pick: (873) UTAH JAZZ +2
Right off the top, this is a game where monitoring the injury updates during the day is important. I’m operating on the assumption that the Jazz won’t be too shorthanded this evening, but I would definitely get the latest info available before taking a stance.
My main thrust here is that it looks to me like the Denver regression might finally be kicking in. The Nuggets put together their best stretch of the season as soon as beleaguered Brian Shaw was finally shown the door. It was clear the players and coach were not only not on the same page, they weren’t even reading from the same book. Therefore it wasn’t anything resembling a coincidence to see the Nuggets suddenly get hot once the move was made by management.
Now it looks as though the regression to the norm is beginning to take place. The Nuggets have started to slip back into their mediocre ways and they were very bad down the stretch in an ugly loss last game to the 76ers. This is not surprising. The novelty of the new coach has worn off, and the reality that the team is playing want amounts to meaningless games under an interim mentor has started to take hold.
Utah won’t be participating the playoffs either, but I think it’s fair to say their situation is far more settled right now that that of the Nuggets. The Jazz are in rebuild mode but their foundation is in place. I’m pretty sure we’re going to be seeing an overhaul of sorts in Denver once the campaign closes and when that’s the case, we frequently see a stretch drive that’s most weaving all over the road.
The technical aspects here favor Utah as well. The Jazz have owned this series from a spread standpoint of late, and they own considerably better situational numbers here than do the Nuggets.
Again, I’d take a look at the injury updates before wagering here. But barring Utah being down too many players tonight, this appears to me to be a good spot to back the Jazz as any kind of underdog.
--
Most bettors are focused on the NCAA Tournament tonight. I'm passing on my premium plays in the colleges. But there's an NBA game tonight I have the most confidence of any game this month.