RANGERS (Holland) at REDS (Straily)
Take: REDS F5
Dan Straily is never going to be mentioned when it comes to the game’s better pitchers. But he’s quietly doing a nice job of hanging tough and giving his team a chance to win, and that’s exactly what the Reds have been doing when he takes the mound. There’s nothing that sticks out among the Straily analytics, which are very average. But Cincinnati has won each of his last seven starts, and they’re 15-8 when he takes the mound this season. Considering the Reds are 38-63 when anyone else goes, that’s a pretty spectacular record.
Derek Holland returns from a rehab stint, and the Rangers are hoping he can relocate some semblance of good form. That’s possibly just wishful thinking. Holland has not been good this season. The K rate is way down, just a little better than five per nine innings, and he’s inducing a career low 36% grounders. That’s not a real good combo, and he could be vulnerable against a Reds lineup that has hit lefties pretty well at home.
The downside for Cincinnati is that terrible bullpen, so as is pretty much an automatic when trying to win a bet with this team, the F5 is clearly the better option. I would figure something in the -110 range on this game.
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