We won both our bets last night - there's a special for MLB/NBA through the AS break - I'm not sure I'd buy it because we suck at MLB so far and we don't bet a ton of NBA. Or, maybe I would because historically we've done well in baseball. Here's one we're on tonight:
910 COL (+105) Greek vs 909 PIT |
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Analysis: This is as much of a fade of Niese as it is a play on Colorado. Niese at Coors Field has pitched 11 innings the last three years (easily sortable) and given up 20 hits and a .417 batting average against. One might think it's just one park, but he was hammered just the other night in Arizona (small park) and gave up to bombs in his only other road start - at Detroit, another reasonable hitters park. In fact, looking up and down the list that doesn't appear to be a new thing by any means. When someone like Mark Reynolds, a low-average hitter who K's a lot - has 8 hits in 15 at bats and two of them leaving the park, there's a problem. Many of the Rockies have seen him and fared well on more than one occasion. So am I a huge fan of Gray? Not really, but he is making his SECOND start so he ought to be far more comfortable than his first start against the Dodgers. He did give up a couple of long balls, but only two walks and struck out TEN in five innings. Of course the Pirates haven't seen him and the Rockies are tying to avoid losing three straight to Pittsburgh. The Rockies pen has been "better" lately and just looking at the last week, I'd give the bullpens here a wash. I don't see this game staying under but the early bettors do, and actually that's probably better for us if it does - because I don't see how the Rockies don't get plenty here, and either Gray just out duels Niese, who we are fading, or Colorado simply goes off, which I do see as a likely scenario.
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