Analysis:
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
I made this number up and will grade it at the prevailing # if there's much difference - obviously most books don't have this number up yet. Often times when making a bet it simply comes down to who you trust. I trust Cole Hamels, but I do not trust the Rangers bullpen one bit. I didn't before Wednesday, and they gave it up again in extras at Seattle. It also comes down to the situation a bit -Texas played early in Seattle and was probably halfway back to Arlington before the Orioles first-pitch in Boston. That means Baltimore will get into Texas long after midnight - and after playing five straight division games, perhaps a bit of a lack of early focus. Hamels is obviously a big-time ground ball pitcher (in two starts this season, 23 ground ball outs to 8 flyball outs) which plays against the Orioles free swinging bats, so advantage Texas. Another reason we can't (or I can't) go full-game here is that this is the Rangers' first game back after seven road games, and that's a situation we TRY to avoid - BUT, they did win four of those. Tillman had his first start cut short (rain) then looked "ok" against the Rays, at home. The Rangers have seen plenty of him and in general had some success. And the Rangers as a team have been unkind to Tillman as well - so we're trusting Hamels for five innings - sans the Rangers bullpen.