737 TEXAS STATE @ 738 GEORGIA STATE
Take: 737 TEXAS STATE +7.5
This one doesn’t figure to be pretty. Texas State and Georgia State are a pair of teams that don’t play very fast, and neither has been very good lately at putting the ball in the basket.
Georgia State figured to be down somewhat this season following a spectacular 2014-15 campaign that saw the Panthers upset Baylor in the NCAA tournament before giving Xavier a good scare prior to finally getting sent home. But the decline has been perhaps steeper than anticipated for Georgia State and this team is really struggling right now.
The Panthers have lost four of their last five, with the only win a fortunate overtime victory over Georgia Southern. Georgia State is no doubt thrilled to be back home following a bad road trip that saw them drop three straight, but I think it’s fair to say this is not a go-with team right now.
Texas State is certainly no great shakes. The Bobcats had a rough weekend in Louisiana, getting drilled by UL Lafayette and also dropping a decision at UL Monroe. But this matchup might be more to their liking. Texas State is frequently outsized but that won’t be the case tonight, as Georgia State is not a particularly big team, nor are the Panthers physical squad.
My expectation is that we’re going to get a low-scoring duel here. Neither team figures to be in a hurry, so I wouldn’t think this will be game with a load of possessions. Georgia State is the more capable entry to be sure, but the Panthers simply aren’t in good form at all of late, and that makes the prospects of them covering a good-sized spread more than a little dicey. I’ve got a revenge motive with the road team as well, plus I like the idea of grabbing all those points against a team that’s outside the top 150 and falling. Add it up and there’s enough here for me to take the plunge with Texas State and the generous number.
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