458 ATLANTA FLACONS -4.5 vs 457 IND
Analysis: Both teams return from Byes but Indy will be without QB Andrew Luck for several weeks. Backup Matt Hasselbeck has been capable but it is still a huge drop off. The Bye came at the right time for Atlanta as the Falcons have gone just 1-3 following its 5-0 start and have lost 5 straight ATS. The Falcons have the better roster and most of the statistical edges, although some are slight. The Colts are off of their upset of previously unbeaten Denver but their other 3 wins are vs their weak Division foes who are a combined 8-18. The week of rest may have helped Atlanta regain its early season offensive form when the Falcons displayed a nice balance of running and passing before injuries affected several key cogs of the offense. The Falcons also have the better rush defense, allowing just 3.7 yards per rush while also allowing just 10.5 yards per pass completion whereas the Colts are allowing an average of 11.9 yards per completion. I expect to see the Falcons of September rather than the Falcons of October and early November and thus expect the Falcons to win by more than a TD. With the money coming in on Indy, the value on the hosts is even more than when the line was close to 6 points.
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