We're doing well in CFB (and the NFL) and as usual passing on thoughts for this weekend. We do have some big bets we've already made, and our LT packages are discounted.
G-Tech-North Carolina: They bought +9.5 fairly quickly and +7.5 is still available, and the fact that it's still over the key number of "7" is somewhat telling in that the sharps are perhaps simply buying numbers here. Nothing wrong with that - but let's remember they only hit 54% - so following them "sometimes" can be worse than picking and choosing daily packages. I've preached that forever. UNC hasn't really been tested (SC doesn't count) and this is their first true road game, while Tech has fallen off the map and comes in after losing at Duke. They don't seem to know what to do with the total. The inclination would be "over" so the value may be in the under, and I have to wonder if the Tar Heels' tempo doesn't keep them in this game.
BGSU-Buffalo: The Falcons are clearly going to be over valued off their wins at both Maryland and Purdue, but that doesn't imply they won't win and cover, simply that you're going to pay a premium to bet that they do. BGSU won a high scoring game by one at home with the Bulls last season, so that might imply that BGSU takes them fairly seriously. Huge total, and one that I wouldn't touch without paying very close attention to the weather, and FWIW it may well be chilly and raining.
Toledo-Ball State: Getting Ball State as a home underdog is almost always a reasonable proposition. However, the value, or most of it, is clearly gone now as the sharps took Ball State from +9 to less than +7 - so a classic case there of something we should have released to long term subscribers right away - but should no longer sell it if we were going to play the underdog. Both teams have played very good competition and I do like the Ball State chance here - but at +7 or perhaps a sprinkle on the ML.
Ohio-Akron: Yet another case or buying numbers as it was at Akron +3 and both times it went there it just didn't last more than a few minutes, and now it's +2.5 - as you'd expect. With a low total and still a dropping total, that would indeed make the point(s) far more valuable than if it were a typical MAC total of 70. I'm not sure what I can take away from Akron's win at ULL and I'm not sure Ohio's great showing at Minnesota is worth them being favored on the road. I don't typically (although we did last week) tease CFB but in this case with a low total I could see using the home team in one.
Kent-Miami (OH): Without looking terribly far here, in a game that looks like it will be lower scoring (total opened around 48 and bought down under a key number) with the books (Vegas does NOT set lines) offering us 22% of the projected points, I would probably have to take them. Remember what I said about the weather in Buffalo - it may not be that different in Ohio - so find the turnover/drive killing play and you might find the winner.
Purdue-Michigan State: It seems as if the Spartans have fallen out of public favor, but perhaps not as much as Purdue, who due to their opener at Marshall that most watched, have become a bit more public than they might otherwise have been. They (the sharps) bought all the +21.5 and higher, but stopped just shy of that, yet another case where it's simply numbers. If they expect 56 points to be scored, I would argue that the Spartans score most of them, so at -21 that might be doable as perhaps would be the Boilermakers team total UNDER.
Minnesota-Northwestern: Two teams that have been high on bettors radars' this season. They quickly bought +6 up and then of course it now sits at +4 because once these lines hit or get to "5" (a dead number, usually) they go THROUGH it. Both teams have very good defenses so I would look to the under as perhaps still having some value, and since Minnesota struggled at Colorado State it might be tough for me to back them at what's now a far less attractive number.
Louisville-NC State: Everyone know knows, after watching the Cardinals play Clemson, that they've got an elite defense. However, as good as they are that game was at home an in prime-time against a top level opponent, so asking them to do that on the road is perhaps a tall order. NC State can put up some points, but they haven't been tested and they've got a prime time game against the Hokies on Friday, so perhaps a bit of a tough spot for me to back them, especially given that L'ville has a bye next week. L'ville has been tested by both Clemson and to some degree Auburn.
Iowa-Wisconsin: Two teams that are going in opposite directions, at least as far as betting perception. Wisconsin only putting up 28 points at home against Troy and Hawaii is indeed a bit of concern - but by the same token now we can get the Badgers at home at less that -7, and Iowa's offense just isn't elite by any means. It should be a defensive struggle, but one would think Wisconsin is about ready to take ass-whip someone. The low total would have me concerned about laying a touchdown, and the Hawkeyes only lost at home last season to the Badgers by two so they won't lack for confidence. The line is about right, IMO.
Pittsburgh-V-Tech: We were all over the Pirates over the Hokies last week, and that loss by Virginia Tech perhaps gives them some value this week. However, hammering Purdue two weeks ago proved to be no big deal as the Boilermakers are just not that good, so I am one that still questions the Hokies heart. Pitt is playing their third straight road game but they've had an extra week to prepare - the lines' gone to +5 at at least one fairly sharp book and if it goes through "5" to +6 there is little doubt that I will take the Panthers.
Mississippi State-Texas A & M: People doubted the Bulldogs after losing so much (but retaining a great QB) and people doubted the Aggies because they always do - often because of their lack of a defense. At first glance it does seem a but much to give the Bulldogs, but the Aggies don't play a true road game until October 24th, only three all year, and have a week off to get ready for Alabama. So, if we went strictly by the situation it's a great one for the home team. The Bulldogs have a relatively soft schedule, and they only real game from which I can take anything from is their comeback/cover against LSU at home. +7 has been around but doesn't last long and the total is creeping up. At some point I'd expect that total to come down - and IMO that could be a setup move early for the later buyback.
K-State-Oklahoma State: The Wildcats almost always get tickets based solely on Snyder and the fact that people have lost a fortune betting against them over the years. However, the early money has been all on the Cowboys. K-State has had two weeks to prepare - but they've yet to face a real test, perhaps much of the reason people seem to like Oklahoma State here. Maybe the fact that the Cowboys were pushed by an improving Longhorn team and the fact that they go on the road to WVU next week might be enough to take the points, especially with the total coming down - which is not something that a novice bettor would be doing in the middle of the week (betting the under in this game).
Texas-TCU: I am shocked at the total of 70 or so in this game, given that we are led to believe that TCU always has an elite defense. It's come down fairly quickly (a bit) but it's still quite high. Texas IS getting better every week as you'd expect with Strong, so I can't lay the points here. It opened at -17 or more and has hovered between 14-15 most of the week - and the fact that this is a high-noon EST game might help the Longhorns as the crowd might be somewhat less of a factor. I won't lay two scores - I do know that.
Mississippi-Florida: I am actually higher on the Gators than most people. That win over an improving Tennessee team might be a springboard to more confidence and a less apathetic home crowd here. Yes, I do know how skilled Ole Miss is and was one of the losers that took the Tide in Tuscaloosa - but every dog has his day and the Rebels cannot do that every single week. There's no doubt in my mind that Florida will want this game more and that Ole Miss cannot possibly get as "high" for this game as they did Alabama. A night game in Gainesville and the Gators are getting more than a touchdown, so Florida or nothing - IMO.
Oregon-Colorado: How the mighty have fallen in that the Ducks are down to a touchdown favorite at Colorado. I have to think the the Buffs clearly have the mindset that they can win this game, and often times that's all it takes. However, this could be a huge over reaction. Let's not forget this is a Colorado team the couldn't beat Hawaii. The first few possessions of this game could dictate policy. If Oregon struggles early then perhaps the Buffs do give them fits, but if Oregon marches up and down the field a couple of times it could be a boatrace. This is probably one game I want no part of.
Arkansas-Tennessee: I have to think if this game were played two weeks ago that the Vols would be heavier favorites - but it's not two weeks ago. I can't discount UT for a one-point loss at Florida, nor can I all of a sudden catapult the Hogs to "playable" after a tough loss to the Aggies, who I don't think are as good as some people might. At home, UT is a different team in front of 105,000 people who are now buying in, and it's the Hogs' first road game. I will lay the points here especially where they've got a fairly high projected total.
Michigan-Maryland: This is another game that if it were played either earlier in the season or had the Wolverines not just dismantled BYU, would have an entirely different line. You're going to pay a premium to bet on Michigan for the foreseeable future, but this could be a measure of payback for Michigan, who lost at home to these Terps last season. I do find it interesting that the total has plummeted from 46 to 43.5, give or take, and that might make the Terps team total "under" something to consider here.