INDIANS (Salazar) @ RED SOX (Barnes)
Take: INDIANS -129
Danny Salazar spent a couple of seasons whetting the appetite of those who believed he had a legit chance to break through as an upper tier starting pitcher. That patience has been rewarded this year. The Indians are going to fall short of most pre-season expectations, but that’s sure not on Salazar.The Salazar numbers speak for themselves. Great BB/K ratio, strong peripherals right across the board, and an analytics display that suggests the best is yet to come.
Tonight, Salazar draws a suddenly tough assignment as the Boston bats have awakened. The Red Sox blasted the ball all over Fenway Park as they took two of three from Seattle. The Red Sox are a monster flop this year, but that lineup still has some guys who can hit, and this might not be a stroll in the park for Salazar.
As for the Boston pitching, that’s still another story. It’s simply terrible. The bullpen has been subpar all season, but has gotten even worse with the loss of closer Koji Uehara for the rest of the year. That definitely enters into the conversation when looking at tonight’s game.
Matt Barnes is back up from Pawtucket to start this game for Boston. Barnes opened the season starting games for the Pawsox, but topped out at five innings. Then he was called up to the parent club and pitched out of the pen, most of the time in mostly low leverage situations. Barnes then went back to Pawtucket and pitched out of the pen, got called back up again for a handful of games, and then returned to Pawtucket yet again. He continued to pitch in relief until earlier this month, when Barnes again became a starter, and his last two appearances were in that role.
The good news for Barnes is that it’s a really short drive between Boston and Pawtucket. The bad news is this kid might not know at this point whether he’s coming or going, nor what he’s supposed to do when he gets there.
The bottom line is that Barnes isn’t especially stretched out, and I’d be shocked if he can go deeper than five innings tonight. That’s assuming he’s doing well, so best case scenario it’s the Boston bullpen for nearly half the game. That cannot be considered as a good thing from the Red Sox perspective.
I make this a big edge on the mound for the Indians with Salazar vs. Barnes and company. It’s also worth noting that for whatever reason, the Tribe has been better on the road than at home, so no issues taking them whole wearing the away uniforms. One concern is the availability of Michael Brantley. He missed the weekend series at Minnesota and had to receive a cortisone shot for his ailing shoulder. The hope is that Brantley will be ready tonight, but check for lineup info as far as that goes. Regardless, I see the Indians having a good shot at collecting a win tonight and I’ll be looking to back Salazar and the Cleveland side in this price range.
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