11/22 4:00 PM CBB (795) EASTERN WASHINGTON at (796) SMU
FREE PICK: (796) SMU -14.5
This number is still mostly -14.5 as I’m writing this, but it’s trending up and given that it’s Big Sky on the road, my guess is that it won’t be heading back down.
That’s not meant as an insult to Eastern Washington. The Eagles are off to a good start and they could make some noise in conference this season. Jim Hayford is building something in Cheney, and I like his very confident approach. Hayford has been pumping up his team’s confidence and insists they’re looking to win and not just show up as they visit both SMU and Indiana over the next few days.
Hayford has reason to feel good about his Eagles. They’ve got most everyone back from last year’s entry and they’re off to an impressive start, albeit against less than stellar opposition. I don’t think this team is going to show any fear tonight, and that can make for a dangerous underdog.
But this might not be the right night to be facing SMU. The Mustangs are back home off a two-game trio that could not have gone much worse. They didn’t play well at Gonzaga, although the Bulldogs aren’t losing to anyone in their present form. Much more troubling was what amounted to a giveaway game at Indiana that left head coach Larry Brown feeling “sick to my stomach” and with good reason.
SMU shot it beautifully at Indiana and they completely dominated the glass. But the Mustangs exerted little pressure on defense, allowing Indiana way too many open looks from deep and they did a terrible job in the turnover category, losing that battle by a whopping -12. Winning anywhere is going to tough with those numbers.
The Mustangs were a bit overrated coming into the new season. A stud recruit opted to play as a pro in China and Markus Kennedy being ineligible for the first semester was another critical blow. I think you’ll see a different SMU team once Kennedy returns and this team should be at its best come March.
Nevertheless, I believe we’re going to get a big effort out of SMU tonight, in spite of the rivalry duel with Arkansas being on deck. Had SMU won at Indiana, I probably wouldn’t be getting involved here. But they didn’t and with the coach not real happy right now, it sure ought to be a spot where the Mustangs come to play.
I’ve got some respect for this Eastern Washington entry. But I’m a notorious Big Sky fader when I believe the other team is going to be focused, so I’ll be in that role right here. The number is certainly a concern, but if the Mustangs decide to play a full 40 off the bad trip, it’s likely to be fairly lopsided. I’ll go ahead and lay it with SMU tonight.
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