Thursday, Sept. 11
Welcome to the second of my weekly Nover's View on overrated/underrated NFL injuries. Here's a look at five for Week 2.
Falcons-Bengals (Sunday)
Injury: Falcons rookie offensive left tackle Jake Matthews not expected to play. Replacement: Gabe Carimi.
Perception: Matt Ryan has all his dangerous weapons healthy again. So expect a shootout.
Nover's View: Ryan can't hit his dangerous targets without adequate protection. Carimi is the Rex Grossman of offensive linemen. He's a big name backup who never will be good. Carimi came in for Matthews, who suffered an ankle injury against the Saints in Week 1. Playing 41 passing snaps, Carimi committed three penalties and gave up four hurries. It's the first time Carimi played left tackle since college. Matthews, the No. 6 overall pick, switched from right to left tackle after the Falcons lost starter Sam Baker for the season in their second preseason game. Carimi was a first-round draft choice of the Bears in 2011 and already is close to being out of the league. Both the Bears and offensive line-starved Buccaneers gave up on him. Carimi might not be so noticeably bad if he were at guard, but protecting Ryan's blindspot against a very good Cincinnati pass rush is too much of a handicapping factor to overcome if considering the Falcons and over.
Dolphins-Bills (Sunday)
Injury: The Dolphins have a cluster injury problem at linebacker with all three of their starters not likely to play. Replacement: Assorted journeymen and special teamers.
Perception: Wow, losing all three starting linebackers is a killer.
Nover's View: Miami missed 116 tackles last year, most in the AFC East. Jason Trusnik and Jelani Jenkins played 67 and 59 snaps, after Koa Misi and Dannell Ellerbe were injured last week and the Dolphins still beat the Patriots, 33-20. Philip Wheeler is the other Miami starter injured and his play was disappointing last year. Can the Dolphins handle Buffalo's ground attack without their starting linebacker trio? They couldn't last year with those guys. Buffalo swept Miami averaging nearly 150 yards on the ground. I'm no fan of E.J. Manuel, but the Dolphins have yet to prove they can handle the Bills even with healthy linebackers. Traveling to face a division rival off their biggest opening game victory in a long time isn't an ideal spot either for the Dolphins.
Seahawks-Chargers (Sunday)
Injury: Chargers center Nick Hardwick out for the season and career probably finished after suffering a neck injury in Week 1. Replacement: Rich Ohrnberger.
Perception: Tough injury. Hardwick's good isn't he?
Nover's View: Yes Hardwick is good, but he is 33 and this likely was his final season as he was in the final year of his contract. Ohrnberger is smart and scrappy. He's a capable replacement, but the Chargers lose Hardwick's intangibles such as 11 years experience, being the team co-captain, making calls and adjustments at the line of scrimmage and being trusted by Philip Rivers. The Chargers can get past this injury because they have Ohrnberger along with the option of making promising guard Chris Watt a center. But this first game without Hardwick could be rough going against the best defense in the NFL, although playing at home helps.
Bears-49ers (Sunday night)
Injury: The Bears could be down two offensive line starters with center Roberto Garza and left guard Matt Slauson suffering ankle injuries against the Bills opening week. Replacement: Brian de la Puente and Michael Ola.
Perception: It's never good to lose two starting offensive linemen so the Bears must be in serious trouble.
Nover's View: Chicago's offensive line may have shown the most improvement of any offensive line last year. Garza and Slauson were replaced by de la Puente at center and Ola, Chicago's top backup guard. Both were solid against the Bills, who led the AFC in sacks last year with 57. Another plus for the Bears is they could have the best blocking wide receivers in the NFL. Brandon Marshall isn't just a superstar pass catcher, but an all-world blocker, too. Plus the 49ers are down defensively with a revamped secondary and minus NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith and Glenn Dorsey. So I wouldn't downgrade Chicago's offense because of these injuries.
Eagles-Colts (Monday)
Injury: Eagles cluster offensive line injuries. Replacement: Journeymen and over-the-hill stop-gaps.
Perception: Chip Kelly's racehorse offense can overcome offensive line injuries because the Eagles play at such a quick tempo.
Nover's View: Many teams suffered offensive line injuries opening week. The Eagles may have been hit the hardest losing two starters, left guard Evan Mathis and right tackle Allen Barbre. Mathis is the injury that really hurts. He not only graded out as the No. 1 guard during each of the last three seasons by Pro Football Focus, but provided needed athleticism in the offensive line. Barbre was the least athletic offensive line starter, just a fill-in until suspended Lance Johnson returns after three more games. The Eagles' top offensive line reserve may be Matt Tobin, but he's out, too, with an ankle sprain suffered during the final week of preseason. That means Dennis Kelly and journeyman Andrew Gardner get elevated to first team with veteran Wade Smith, who was signed on Tuesday, waiting in the wings until he learns Kelly's unique offense. It's a bad break for the Eagles that their new offensive line, minus four of their top seven linemen, have to open at noisy Lucas Oil Stadium, which has a retractable dome. Nick Foles is just in his second season as a starter and already showed signs of regression from last year this past Sunday. It seems Kelly is going to have to slow down his offense in wake of such offensive line turnover.
On the handicapping front, I am today's $1 'capper. I won my Triple Star MLB Total of the Month last night with the over in the Cubs-Blue Jays game. I am 21-9 on my last 30 Triple Stars and have a pair of Triple Star NFL plays going Sunday, including my Top Crusher. My NFL and CFB packages are still at discounted rates for a limited time. All of my plays and packages can be found on my home page here: /pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=7746#capper.
As always, let's have no bad luck!