For what it’s worth (and it wasn’t worth squat again last night), the heavily favored Dodgers were upset 7-2 by the Reds at Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers had their ace, Tyler Glasnow going for them last night, but he struggled a lot more than usual, giving up 4 runs on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 8 over 5 innings. Glasnow ran into trouble early, giving up a leadoff HR to start the game off and an RBI double four batters later. The Reds also got to Glasnow for a run in the 3rd and 5th. It was only the second time in his ten starts this season that Glasnow had given up as many as 4 runs. The right-hander was coming off four consecutive quality starts, but wasn’t sharp last night.
Thee’s no way that the Dodgers should have lost this game to a vastly inferior opponent, but they did and I was heavily invested in the game, dropping 5 units and leaving me -63.84 unit for the season. God, that looks bad! I still trust my process and I still believe that I will turn this around, but it will take time, not a day or a week, but a month or two. Either that or my bankroll will be gone by the All Start break.
Today we have a full slate of games and there are several that I like. I’m sticking with the big favorites in a series of parlay because I’m expecting them to start winning at the clip they normally win at. Here’s my Friday night card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
-101
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
NYY ML
|
-101
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
107
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
113
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
110
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
-105
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
NYY ML
|
-105
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
104
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
ATL ML
|
109
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
LAD ML
|
106
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
106
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
112
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
108
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
106
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
ATL ML
|
112
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
LAD ML
|
108
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
117
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
LAD ML
|
120
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
DET 1st 5 RL
|
|
-115
|
2
|
Here are my thoughts on those games.
WASH @ PHIL
The 20-22 Nats had the day off yesterday and nw travel to the “City of Brotherly Love” to take of the NL East division leading Phils. The Nats dropped two of three to the wretched White Sox in Chicago earlier this week, while the Phils lost a close one to the Mets 6-5 last night, after taking the first three games of that series in Philselphia.
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
WASH
|
Irvin - R
|
|
(4/8
|
(3/8)
|
1.09
|
3.55
|
4.72
|
3.20
|
3.57
|
3.79
|
0.291
|
0.345
|
19.6%
|
4.3%
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R
|
|
(7/9)
|
(2/9)
|
0.99
|
2.53
|
2.80
|
2.72
|
2.87
|
2.96
|
0.289
|
0.271
|
30.0%
|
7.4%
|
Edge – PHIL big
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
WASH
|
9
|
7
|
13
|
5
|
32
|
74.7%
|
7
|
0.43
|
6
|
1.35
|
17
|
3.43
|
10
|
22.4%
|
18
|
9.6%
|
16
|
PHIL
|
7
|
5
|
13
|
6
|
24
|
67.6%
|
23
|
0.54
|
20
|
1.36
|
20
|
4.44
|
23
|
24.5%
|
9
|
9.3%
|
12
|
Edge – WASH slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
WASH
|
3.95
|
21
|
0.296
|
24
|
90
|
23
|
0.126
|
25
|
9.3%
|
9
|
36.8%
|
25
|
5.7%
|
27
|
22.0%
|
13
|
PHIL
|
5.27
|
1
|
0.335
|
4
|
116
|
4
|
0.158
|
8
|
10.1%
|
3
|
40.4%
|
9
|
7.2%
|
12
|
22.4%
|
16
|
Edge – PHIL
Conclusion: The Phils are the better team here in almost every respect. With the exception of striking out at a slight;y (0.4%) higher ratem they are the much better hitting team averaging well over a full run per game more than the Nats, with with an almost 40-point better wOBA and a 26 point better wRC+. The Phils don’t have a good bullpwn, so the Nat probably get a small edge there. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and Zack Wheeler v Jake Irvin should be a mismatch. Wheeler is coming off a rare poor outing, but seven of hs nine starts have graded as above average with a sub 1.00 WHIP, a mid 2s ERA and ERA metrics that are all under 3.00, as well as a 30% K rate. I’m expecting a bounce-back outing from Wheeler tonight
Jake Ivin has pitched better than I expected with four of his eight starts grading as above average, one rading as average and three grading as below. His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all worse the Wheeler’s as well.
The Phils appear to be on a mission this season and they are simply better than the Nats.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
CHI WS @ NYY
The 14-30 White Sox travel east to the Bronx to face the 30-15 Yankees. The white Sox had the day off, after taking two of three from the Nats in Chicago, while the Yanks shut out the Twins 5-0 in Minnesota behind a career-best 8 shutout innings from SP Clarke Schmidt, to complete a three game sweep.
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CHI WS
|
Clevinger - R
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
2.10
|
5.40
|
6.01
|
5.36
|
5.52
|
5.44
|
0.424
|
0.382
|
14.7%
|
11.8%
|
NYY
|
Cortes
|
(4/9)
|
(5/9)
|
1.08
|
4.02
|
2.80
|
3.58
|
3.95
|
3.74
|
0.289
|
0.272
|
23.4%
|
5.0%
|
Edger NYY
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
CHI WS
|
4
|
12
|
10
|
9
|
25
|
69.9%
|
19
|
0.57
|
23
|
1.40
|
26
|
4.03
|
17
|
20.7%
|
26
|
11.7%
|
27
|
NYY
|
12
|
5
|
17
|
6
|
22
|
74.9%
|
6
|
0.37
|
2
|
1.13
|
5
|
2.58
|
2
|
21.5%
|
22
|
9.5%
|
13
|
Edge – NYY big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
NYY
|
4.80
|
7
|
0.336
|
3
|
120
|
2
|
0.165
|
5
|
10.5%
|
2
|
40.8%
|
5
|
8.8%
|
4
|
19.7%
|
3
|
CHI WS
|
2.91
|
30
|
0.274
|
30
|
75
|
30
|
0.118
|
29
|
6.9%
|
28
|
35.3%
|
28
|
5.5%
|
29
|
22.3%
|
14
|
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: The Yankees are the clearly better team here in every respect. They are the better hitting team, averaging almost two full runs more per game than the White Sox with a more than 60-point better wOBA and a 46 point better wRC+. The Yanks bullpen has been one of the best in baseball, while the White Sox’s pen ranks and a below average unit in almost every category. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that might first appear to be close, but when you look at the stats, it’s not. Mike Clevinger has only started two game for the White Sox, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) on 10 its and 4 walks over 6.2 innings with 5 Ks. His stats are awful, but it’s a sample size of just two games.
By contrast Nestor Cortes has started nine games with four grading as above average and five grading as below, but Whike his ERA on only mediocre, his WHIP and ERA metrics are all lower than that ERA with decent K rate and low walk rate. He deserves better than what he’s gotten so far this season
I still think that Cortes is better than Clevinger and I know that the Yanks have the way better offense and bullpen..
Pick – NYY 1st 5 and full game ML in a series of parlays
SD @ ATL
The 22-24 Padres travels cross-country to Atlanta to take o the 26-14 Braves. The Padres, who had the day off, are coming off an embarrassing three-game sweep at the hand of the visiting Rockies, while the Braves, who also had the dsay off, return home after taking two of three from the Cub at Wrigley.
Starting Pitchers
7:20
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SD
|
Waldron - R
|
(4/4)
|
(4/4)
|
1.45
|
5.49
|
4.39
|
4.46
|
4.51
|
4.38
|
0.341
|
0.334
|
19.9%
|
8.5%
|
ATL
|
Fried L
|
(4/8)
|
(3/8)
|
1.04
|
3.57
|
3.47
|
3.88
|
3.51
|
3.68
|
0.252
|
0.298
|
20.4%
|
9.4%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
SD
|
8
|
6
|
12
|
5
|
18
|
71.5%
|
14
|
0.48
|
15
|
1.23
|
9
|
4.02
|
16
|
22.0%
|
21
|
8.2%
|
6
|
ATL
|
11
|
7
|
12
|
7
|
21
|
77.8%
|
1
|
0.42
|
5
|
1.26
|
13
|
3.32
|
9
|
22.6%
|
16
|
7.7%
|
3
|
ATL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SD
|
4.59
|
10
|
0.319
|
8
|
111
|
7
|
0.143
|
17
|
8.6%
|
13
|
38.9%
|
12
|
7.0%
|
17
|
19.7%
|
3
|
ATL
|
4.94
|
6
|
0.328
|
5
|
110
|
8
|
0.159
|
7
|
8.6%
|
13
|
45.1%
|
1
|
8.2%
|
5
|
22.6%
|
17
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: I think that the Braves are the better team here. They are probably the better hitting team, averaging about a third of a run more per game than the Padres with a 9-point better wOBA, but the strange thing is that their wRC+ are almost identical? The Braves also have the statistically better bullpen. That bring us to the two starting pitchers. Knuckler Matt Waldron has been mostly mediocre this season. Of his eight starts, four graded as above average and four graded as below. Waldron’s statistical profile is also mediocre, nothing really awful, but nothing really good either. Waldron is much like that knuckler he throws, totally unpredictable.
The only question with Max Fried is his health and right now, he looks very healthy. After two lousy starts in his first two outings coming back from injury, , Fried has now reeled off four above average starts, one average one and just one below average one in his last six outings with a stellar 0.79 WHIP and 1.98 ERA over that span. Fried’s ERA metrics are a half to a full run lower than his actual ERA, telling me that Fried’s ERA should be at least half a run lower.
The Braves have all the edges.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
DET @ ARIZ
The 21-22 Tigers head to the desert to take on the 21-23 Diamondbacks. The Tigers had the day off after dropping two of three to the visiting Marlins, while the Diamondbacks also had the day off and return home after taking two of three from the Reds in Cincinnati.
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
DET
|
Skubal - L
|
(7/8)
|
(1/8)
|
0.86
|
2.02
|
2.12
|
2.01
|
2.53
|
2.52
|
0.226
|
0.236
|
31.6%
|
4.2%
|
ARIZ
|
Nelson - R
|
(1/6)
|
(5/6)
|
1.70
|
5.33
|
4.92
|
4.37
|
4.21
|
4.29
|
0.399
|
0.351
|
16.4%
|
5.2%
|
Dege – DET big
Bullpens
N/A This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
DET
|
3.91
|
22
|
0.293
|
26
|
89
|
25
|
0.132
|
22
|
8.3%
|
18
|
40.6%
|
6
|
7.4%
|
9
|
23.8%
|
23
|
ARIZ
|
4.89
|
5
|
0.318
|
9
|
105
|
9
|
0.147
|
14
|
9.4%
|
7
|
38.3%
|
18
|
7.1%
|
15
|
19.8%
|
5
|
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: Weare faced with the classic conundrum in this one. The Diamondbacks possess the much better offense, but the Tigers have the much better starting pitcher.
The Diamondbacks average almost a full run more per game than the offensively challenged Tigers with a 25-point better wOBA and a 16-point better wRC+, but Taarik Skubal v Ryne Nelson looks like a mismatch,
Skubal has started eight games with seven of them grading as above average and has now delivered five straight quality starts. He is carrying a sub 1.00 WIP with an ERA of barely over 2.00 and ERA metrics that are all in the mid to low 2s, a wOBA and xwOBA that are both nearly 100 points lower than league average and an impressive 31.6% K rate.
Ryne Nelson has really struggled this season, going more than five innings just once, with just one of his six starts grading as above average. His WHIP and ERA are both very high and his ERA metrics are all mediocre. With a wOBA that’s almost .400, a lousy K rate and a walk rate that’s even higher than his K rate. There just isn’t much to like about Nelson.
While I don’t necessarily trust the Tigers to win this game, I do trust Skubal and my bet is that he will be able to shut down the Diamondbacks’ offense for five innings.
Pick – DET 1st 5 RL in a side bet
CIN @LAD
Much to my dismay, the 18-25 Reds upset the 29-17 Dodgers last night 7-2 at Dodger Stadium.
Starting Pitchers
10:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CIN
|
Montas - R
|
(3/7)
|
(4/7)
|
1.37
|
4.20
|
4.80
|
4.64
|
4.55
|
4.56
|
0.321
|
0.331
|
18.2%
|
9.1%
|
LAD
|
Paxton - L
|
(4/7)
|
(3/7)
|
1.41
|
2.58
|
5.89
|
4.86
|
5.60
|
6.05
|
0.304
|
0.379
|
13.7%
|
14.9%
|
Edge – ???
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
CIN
|
6
|
10
|
7
|
3
|
22
|
72.5%
|
9
|
0.51
|
17
|
1.29
|
15
|
4.25
|
18
|
25.3%
|
5
|
10.2%
|
21
|
LAD
|
8
|
8
|
14
|
5
|
28
|
72.7%
|
8
|
0.41
|
3
|
1.06
|
2
|
3.05
|
4
|
22.4%
|
18
|
7.8%
|
4
|
Edge – LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
CIN
|
4.32
|
15
|
0.295
|
25
|
84
|
27
|
0.141
|
18
|
9.2%
|
11
|
37.9%
|
20
|
7.0%
|
17
|
25.3%
|
26
|
LAD
|
5.20
|
2
|
0.345
|
1
|
126
|
1
|
0.180
|
2
|
10.6%
|
1
|
44.4%
|
2
|
9.0%
|
2
|
21.8%
|
11
|
Edge – LAD big
Conclusion: On paper, this game should be a mismatch, but then again, last night’s game looked like an even bigger mismatch and that didn’t go very well for me or the Dodgers. The Dodgers are much better than the Reds, but the better team doesn’t always win. The Dodgers have the vastly superior offense. They rank 1st in wOBA, wRC+ and walk rate, and 2nd in runs per game, ISO, hard-hit and barrel rates. The Reds, on the other hand rank as below average in all of those categories. The Dodgers do not have a good bullpen, but it is still statistically better than the Reds pen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that’s more coplicated.
Frankie Montas has started seen games for the Res with three grading as above average and four grading as below. In the six during which he has been able to avoid injury, the righthander has given up 2 or fewer runs three times while giving up 5 runs in each of the other for. That’s like two completely different pitchers and averages out to a mediocre WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics with a pedestrian K rate and a high walk rate. I have no idea which Montas we gat tonight.
Jame Paxton has also started seven games for the Dodgers with four grading as above average and three grading as below. The veteran lefty has now given up a total of just 1 run in his last two outings and 1 run or less in three of his last four, but 8 and 5 twice in the other three. Walks have been an issue for Paxton. He’s issued 17 in his 38.1 innings, and when he’s gotten into trouble, that’s usually the culprit. That would explain a gtreat ERA despite a very mediocre WHIP and high ERA metrics.
With the possible exception of the starting pitching matchup, which looks very volatile, the Dodgers hold every other edge here. They’re just better than the Reds and despite what happened last night, they should win this game, but I don’t have enough confidence in Paxton to bet a Dodger 1st 5, so….
Pick – LAD full game ML in a series of parlays