Going back to the 1990 season, NBA defending champs are covering at 61% when facing elimination in games 5-thru-7. Furthermore, NBA playoff teams off a win of 40+ points are largely under water in the next game (about 38% ATS), while specifically, the Denver Nuggets are 4-0 ATS with same-season revenge from a loss of 40+ points, provided their opponent is off a SU win (T-Wolves enter here off a 45-point demolition of the Nuggets in Game 6).
Yes, this is a series in which the road team has historically had the upper hand - and yes, the road team went 4-0 SU/ATS in games 1-4. However, over the past 10 skirmishes, the home team is 5-5 ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS in games 5 and 6.
I like Denver (-5) - with a lean on the "Under," despite the massive line adjustment to 196.5.