The Vegas Fallout of Aaron Rodgers' Torn Achilles and What's Next for the NY Jets
In a shocking turn of events that has left the NFL community and betting markets reeling, the New York Jets' newly acquired quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, suffered a season-ending Achilles tear just four plays into his debut game against the Buffalo Bills. This unexpected twist has altered the trajectory of the Jets' 2023 season and also caused significant shifts in the Vegas betting landscape. Here, we delve into the immediate repercussions of this injury on the Jets and the ripples it has created in the Vegas odds.
A Promising Start Cut Short
The Jets commenced their season on a high note, clinching a 22-16 victory over the Bills despite entering the game as +2.5-point underdogs, a triumph that unfortunately will likely be forgotten in the wake of Rodgers' sudden departure from the game. The four-time MVP, who had breathed new life into his career with a fresh start at the Jets, now stands at a crossroads, his future tinged with uncertainty. This fresh start was vividly chronicled in HBO's "Hard Knocks", where Rodgers and the team were thrust into the limelight, offering fans an unprecedented glimpse into Rodgers' laidback leadership style and the team's dynamics.
Despite the setback, head coach Robert Saleh stands unyielding, harboring a steadfast belief in the team's potential to excel this season. Saleh's confidence is mirrored in the renewed vigor of Zach Wilson, who is prepared to take the helm as the starting quarterback. Many reflected on the positive impact Rodgers had had on Wilson as a young QB, a dynamic seen often in their appearances on "Hard Knocks". The series not only cast Rodgers in a favorable light but also seemed to galvanize the team, setting the stage for a season where resilience and unity will be their guiding forces.
The Immediate Vegas Repercussions
The Vegas betting market responded swiftly to Rodgers' injury, adjusting the odds to reflect the perceived impact on the Jets' season prospects. Here's a detailed look at the shifts:
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Super Bowl Odds
The Super Bowl odds have undergone a drastic shift, mirroring the heightened 'Super-Bowl-or-Bust' expectations that Rodgers instilled in the team during his introductory press conference. According to consensus data from Pregame.com, the Jets' odds have sharply declined from an encouraging 18/1 before the game to a sobering 60/1 post-game as the market grapples with the gravity of Rodgers' injury. On his first day at the facility back in April, Rodgers pointed out the solitary Lombardi Trophy in the team's lobby, remarking that "it looks lonely." This observation not only underscored his ambition to end the franchise's 54-year Super Bowl drought but also emphasized the transformative potential he brought to the team, a potential that now seems jeopardized due to his recent injury.
Before MNF: NY Jets 18/1 (t-9th favorite)
After MNF: NY Jets 60/1 (18th favorite)
For context, the Jets, who entered the 2022 season as one of the lowest-rated teams by Vegas in the NFL, were pegged at 140/1 by Pregame's consensus after Week 1 last year. The relative upgrade from 140/1 to 60/1 showcases the impressive performances outside of the quarterback position that the team has displayed in the calendar year since, as evidenced by their upset win on Monday Night Football over the Bills. It also indicates that this franchise, despite its rocky phases, has generally improved in recent seasons under its current leadership.
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Win Totals
Before the injury, the over/under for the Jets' win totals stood at 9.5. The Jets' victory would typically have nudged this upwards, but the loss of Rodgers has instead led to a downgrade. The new line stands at over/under 8.5, with the over at +130 and the under at -155. This adjustment suggests a projected 8-win season for the Jets, indicating an expectation of about a 7-9 record for the remainder of the 2023 season. It's a cautious outlook, considering the Jets managed a 7-10 record last year with Wilson as their starting quarterback.
Before MNF: NY Jets O/U 9.5
After MNF: NY Jets ~O/U 8 (Under 8.5 -155)
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Week 2 Odds
Looking ahead to week 2, the betting line for the Jets' matchup against the Dallas Cowboys has also been adjusted. Initially, the Jets were listed at +3.5, but the line has moved to +7.5 in the wake of Rodgers' injury, indicating a perceived weaker stance against a Cowboys team coming off a dominant performance.
Before MNF:: NY Jets +3.5 @ DAL Cowboys
After MNF: NY Jets +7.5 @ DAL Cowboys
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Looking Ahead: The Jets' Plan B
With Rodgers sidelined, the betting markets are fervently analyzing the Jets' potential next moves. The spotlight is now on Zach Wilson, who despite holding some of the worst stats of any quarterback in the modern era, has the chance to utilize his arm talent and athleticism to potentially guide the Jets towards a playoff-caliber season. However, the Jets are actively contemplating enhancing their quarterback roster, exploring both trade options and free-agent acquisitions to craft a robust backup plan. Positioned precariously, the Jets, with a meticulous strategy, could defy the odds and morph this season into a success story.
As the Jets strategize, the betting markets are closely monitoring the fluctuating odds on potential new signings or trades. The trade options appear promising, with several experienced quarterbacks potentially up for grabs. Leading the betting markets are Nick Foles (+300) and Jameis Winston (+350). Foles, a former Super Bowl MVP, has had a mixed record since his 2017 Super Bowl run, with a 7-12 SU record as a starter over various teams. Despite the uncertainty surrounding his future in football, his connection with Jets GM Joe Douglas from their time in Philadelphia might be a factor to consider. On the other hand, Winston, a former #1 overall pick, had a promising start with the Saints in 2021 before an injury cut his season short before he lost his starting job to Andy Dalton last season. His prospects might be revitalized with a potential move to the Jets.
Winston's teammate in New Orleans, Taysom Hill (+650) emerges as a strong contender, given the Jets' substantial running attack. Hill's versatility could potentially form a dynamic partnership in a run-heavy scheme paired with RBs Breece Hall & Dalvin Cook, offering a fresh dimension to the Jets' offensive strategy. Moreover, the Jets could continue to start Wilson at QB and integrate Hill in various packages, escalating his involvement if Wilson faces difficulties.
Simultaneously, the free-agent market is brimming with opportunities.
The rumor mill is abuzz with speculation regarding a potential return of Tom Brady (+2000) to New York. Although this seems highly unlikely due to Brady's ownership stake in the Raiders and the intricate approval process involved, it adds an electrifying layer to the ongoing discussions about the Jets' forthcoming moves. Adding a touch of humor to the swirling rumors, a recent tweet from Omaha Productions featured Peyton Manning jesting on the Manningcast that "Tom Brady going to the Jets would be illegal."
In the midst of all the speculation and betting frenzy, it's crucial to remember that if a quarterback other than the ones listed in the betting markets is selected, the bookmakers will reap substantial profits, pocketing all the money from the unsuccessful wagers. Interestingly, one notable name absent from the betting board is LA Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. Just days before Rodgers' injury, the NFL Network reported that the Jets had initiated preliminary discussions with the Rams regarding Stafford, before finalizing the Rodgers deal. These talks were more exploratory in nature, with the Rams confirming that Stafford was not available for trade. This inquiry unfolded amidst the uncertainty surrounding Rodgers' plans for the 2023 season, eventually culminating in the blockbuster trade for Rodgers on April 24, thereby resolving the Jets' quarterback conundrum. As Stafford returned and demonstrated his Hall-of-Fame caliber performance in Week 1, it remains unclear whether the Rams would have ever entertained trading Stafford to New York, or if the player himself would have been open to such a move.
As the Jets traverse this challenging period, their strategy will encompass a detailed analysis of both trade options and free-agent possibilities. Aiming to construct a resilient team that can recover from Rodgers' loss, the Jets are prepared to explore all avenues to secure a successful season. The forthcoming weeks are pivotal in determining the team's trajectory, with fans keenly anticipating the next developments. The betting markets are offering a dynamic reflection of the potential paths the Jets might undertake, keeping fans and bettors on their toes.
Current Betting Odds for Next QB NY Jets Sign or Trade for (via BetOnline.au):
Nick Foles: +300
Jameis Winston: +350
Colt McCoy: +500
Taysom Hill: +650
Davis Mills: +800
Carson Wentz: +1000
Cooper Rush: +1000
Matt Ryan: +1100
Teddy Bridgewater: +1400
Taylor Heinicke: +1600
Case Keenum: +1800
Marcus Mariota: +1800
Tom Brady: +2000
Jacoby Brissett: +2500
Josh Johnson: +2500
Mason Rudolph: +2800
Joe Flacco: +3300
Andy Dalton: +3500
Gardner Minshew: +4000
Colin Kaepernick: +5000
Tyrod Taylor: +5000
Russell Wilson: +7500
Andrew Luck: +10000
Ryan Fitzpatrick: +10000
Tim Tebow: +15000
Conclusion: A Test of Resilience
The Jets find themselves at a crossroads early in the season, facing the challenge of rallying without their star quarterback. As Vegas adjusts to this new reality, all eyes will be on the Jets to see if they can defy the odds and emerge as a force to be reckoned with in the 2023 NFL season. It's a test of resilience and adaptability, with the potential for new stars to rise and shape the Jets' destiny.
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