Denver Nuggets, 10th Favorite to Win 2023 NBA Title at Market Open
The Vegas betting market opened the Denver Nuggets with 16-to-1 odds back in May 2022, notably behind the Miami Heat, who opened at 12-to-1 odds. The difference in opening odds between these two teams was an early indicator of the market’s expectations, which would shift dramatically over the course of the season.
When the 2023 title market opened, the Heat had just lost in the Eastern Conference Finals, while the Denver Nuggets had just concluded an injury-riddled season bowing out in the first round to the eventual champion Golden State Warriors. Nikola Jokic had averaged an efficient 31 PPG vs. the Warriors, but his efforts were not enough with running mates Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr both sidelined due to injury. At 16/1 based on a 5-sportsbook-consensus from Pregame.com, Bookmakers had made Denver the 10th favorite to win the championship, just behind the Philadelphia 76ers (15/1) and slightly ahead of the LA Lakers (20/1).
Nuggets’ Offseason Moves
In the offseason, the Nuggets consensus odds hovered around the same mark. During the NBA draft, the Nuggets strategically used their 21st pick to secure Kansas forward Christian Braun, a versatile rookie renowned for his three-point shooting and solid on-ball defense. Braun proved an exceptional addition during the playoffs, notably scoring 15 points in just 19 minutes, including 11 in the second half in the Nuggets pivotal Game 3 victory over Miami in the 2023 NBA Finals.
The Nuggets also strengthened their roster through key acquisitions, including Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown in a trade. Caldwell-Pope, a consistent wing player, was complemented by Brown's versatility and strength. Brown averaged 11 PPG in the 2023 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat, fourth highest on the team.
“We are definitely very happy with where we are at as a team in terms of our roster,” Denver Nuggets assistant general manager Tommy Balcetis told Fastbreak on FanNation in an exclusive interview back in September. “I feel like we got better, we got stronger and more defensive-minded, so we are definitely happy about this roster.”
The Campaign Begins, Nuggets at 17-to-1
By the start of the season on October 17, 2022, the Nuggets' odds had remained relatively steady clocking in at 17-to-1.
As the Nuggets raced out to a top record in the West there was a gradual improvement in their odds starting from December 5, 2022, from 14-to-1 down to 10-to-1 by January 3, 2023.
The odds continued to improve in January and February 2023, reaching 8-to-1 odds by the NBA trade deadline, fourth highest in the league behind the Celtics (+325), Suns (+450) & Bucks (+575). By the NBA All-Star break, the Nuggets had claimed the number 1 seed in the West, but the betting odds market still preferred the Phoenix Suns to win it all after their deadline acquisition of Kevin Durant from the Brooklyn Nets.
Midseason Meandering
The Nuggets had a sluggish end of the season, winning only 7 of their last 17 games. By the end of the regular season in early April, the Nuggets odds had drifted down to 10-1, 5th favorite behind the Bucks (+300), Celtics (+335), Suns (+425) & Warriors (9/1). During this period, Nikola Jokic, who would later be crowned the 2023 NBA Finals MVP, transitioned from being the favorite for the NBA regular season MVP title to distant second favorite, with Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers ultimately clinching the honor.
On March 7th, the MVP race became a point of contention on NBA debate shows. The Nuggets had an elite +4.8 Net Rating prior to March 7th; afterwards, the Nuggets finished the season with -0.8 Net Rating, 20th best in the NBA.
By contrast, the Miami Heat had ended the entire regular season with a negative scoring margin, using garbage-time adjusted metrics from CleaningTheGlass.com. The Heat – who needed to win in the NBA play-in tournament to make the NBA Playoffs, ended the regular season with 150/1 odds to win the Title.
Playoff Dominance
The Nuggets' odds improved dramatically after the first round the playoffs, from 10-to-1 on April 10th, 2023, to 4-to-1 by May 2, 2023 - thanks to the Nuggets making quick work of the Minnesota Timberwolves in 5 games, and the playoff field losing one of the biggest threats to the title when the Milwaukee Bucks bowed out early. By contrast, the Heat entered the second round at 35-to-1 odds to win the title.
A curious point in the timeline of NBA Title odds came on May 9th, when the then-Title-favorites Boston Celtics surprisingly lost as 8-point favorites in Game 5 of their second series vs. the Philadelphia Sixers, falling down 3 games to 2. At that point in time, the Nuggets, who were tied 2-2 in their second series vs. the Phoenix Suns, had +400 odds to win the title – the same as the Boston Celtics, and behind the 76ers (+350) & the LA Lakers (+370).
The Denver Nuggets became minus-money favorites at -110 when they lead the LA Lakers 2-0 & the Boston Celtics fell down 0-2 to the Miami Heat during the Conference Finals. They retained their minus-money odds throughout the remainder of the playoffs, which was particularly noticeable after they executed a rare sweep in the NBA Conference Finals. The Nuggets finished the post-season 16-4 SU record and 12-8 ATS, covering on average by +4.5 points per game.
NBA Finals, Odds Flip Reflect Shifting Vegas Expectations
As the Nuggets prepared to face off against the Miami Heat in the 2023 NBA Finals, they were backed by consensus odds of -400, reflecting the dramatic shift in the market's belief over the season. It's notable to recall that Vegas had initially tipped the Miami Heat as more likely to win the 2023 NBA title, opening their odds at 12/1 back in May of the previous year. The Nuggets, on the other hand, had been seen as less likely contenders, with opening odds of 16/1.
However, as the season progressed, these two teams embarked on markedly different trajectories. While the Heat grappled with a lackluster regular season, the Nuggets consistently dominated both their regular season and the playoffs. The market responded in kind, increasingly favoring Denver as the season wore on. By the time of the NBA Finals, the consensus had overwhelmingly swung in favor of the Nuggets.
Backed by the insights and collective wisdom of the betting community, the market now placed the Nuggets as clear favorites, suggesting they had a 78% chance to win the 7-game series. This remarkable odds flip underscored the story of two teams who had diverged greatly from their initial projections, culminating in the Nuggets clinching the title after a 5-game series win over the Miami Heat.
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Related: NBA Finals 2023: Game 5 - Four Players' Props That Could Make the Difference, Game 5 Betting Report, Game 4 Betting Report, Game 3 Betting Report, NBA Finals 2023: Game 2 - Four Players' Props That Could Define the Outcome, 2023 NBA Finals Preview
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