From preseason #2 and in consideration for the National Championship, Michigan State (17-13, 9-9 Big Ten) is now fighting just to be a bubble team and sneak into the NCAA Tournament. A team that Tom Izzo was quoted as calling "his best team ever", now must beat Iowa to show they are worthy of a 14th trip in fourteen years to the NCAA Tournament.

Draymond Green is the vocal leader of the Spartans in the locker-room and must get back to old form if Sparty hopes to pull off the victory today. After getting sidelined with the stomach flu he sprained his ankle and from there failed to hit double digits in scoring in 4 of his last 5 games. Green's presence on the floor is essential for Michigan State to not fall behind early and have a repeat of the 41-20 halftime deficit and eventual loss to Iowa (72-52) back on February 2nd.

How do the experts see the Spartans chances to make the "Big Dance"? Heading into the game today versus Iowa, ESPN has them as the #11 seed facing #6 see Vanderbilt, CBS Sportsline has them sneaking in as a possible #12 seed and Sports Illustrated has them in as a #11 seed against #6 Cincinnati. A loss to Iowa today would drop them below .500 in the conference and probably get them their NCAA Tourney invite replaced by one to the NIT.

With a 4-12 Big 10 record, the Iowa Hawkeyes are playing for pride and revenge today. On the cover of the Des Moines Register online sports section today the top stories are: High School basketball semifinals, Iowa State losing to Colorado and Iowa State women's basketball. So with a game against Michigan State today at 5pm, the local newspapers has them trumped by high school kids and women's basketball. It seems everyone but the Iowa Hawkeyes have written this game off and handed the win to Michigan State. If you dig deep enough, you will find the everyone does not include the Iowa Hawkeyes. Unlike the Spartans who are only talking about the collapse of the season or the pressure of needing a win, the Iowa players are loose and excited about this matchup. Junior point guard Bryce Cartwright is quoted in local press on how excited he is to be playing in an NBA arena (Indiana Pacers Conseco Fieldhouse) and it is a "dream come true".  Junior guard Matt Gatens talks about the "confidence" from the Purdue win and how the team "feels they can beat high quality teams". In college sports especially, emotion or the lack of emotion, can trump any stats, trends or quality of athlete. Michigan State has failed in every instance this season to win when they needed and have everything to lose, while Iowa is essentially on a "free roll".

Three big factors in this game are Draymond Green, Iowa long-range shooters and the Iowa bench. Green has to get back on track and get his point total in the double digits if Michigan State wants to move on and face Purdue in the next round. After rolling Michigan State 72-52 in Iowa, the Spartans in the rematch blew the Hawkeyes out of the gym 85-66 on March 2nd. The two main reasons were the 0-12 shooting from 3-pont land from the Hawkeyes and their bench getting outscored 42-12. Granted Iowa ranks last in the Big 10 in 3-point shooting, but even shooting their season average in the 85-66 loss would have made the game only a 7 point difference. Iowa has a balanced offense and having your bench get outscored by 30 can't happen if they plan to stay in this one today.

We think Michigan State has packed it in for the season and after two straight Final Four finishes, how do you get up to play Iowa to try and "bubble" into the tourney? The last two times these two teams met in the Big 10 Tournament (2005, 2006), Iowa won both times. With so much on the line and the season being a total disaster, do not be surprised if Iowa can win this one outright. The Hawkeyes finished the season out upsetting Purdue 67-65 on Saturday and are not going to just lay down for Michigan State today. On the flip side, if Sparty can get their act together and make a run in the Big 10 tourney, do not be suprised of they make some noise in the NCAA Tournament.That being said, not sure how after a season of let down and disappointment this game against Iowa will be the turning point for Sparty.

Notable Trends:

MIchigan State has only covered 4 of their last 16 games
Michigan State is 6-13 ATS when favored this season
Michigan State has won 5 of the last 6 outright, but only covered in 3
When Iowa is in the underdog role, 9 of their last 13 games have went UNDER
When Michigan State is a favorite, 13 of their last 18 have went UNDER

Game Time: 4:55pm EST
T.V.: ESPN 2 DTV: 209
Public Betting Percentages: 78% on Michigan State and 83% on the UNDER (Check the updated betting %)
Opening Line: MIchigan State -7.0/130.0
Current Line: MIchigan State -7.0/130.0 (Check the updated line)
JD's Line: MIchigan State -5.0/131.5
Free College Basketball Pick: Iowa plus the points

Community Feedback:

Even with the win over Iowa, is Michigan State deserving of the NCAA Tournament?

What are the key factors for Iowa to pull off the upset?