A Fourth Team for James Harden In As Many Years
James Harden is heading home to Southern California where the LA Clippers will be his fourth team in as many years in the NBA. The LA Clippers and the Philadelphia 76ers have finally closed a deal, sending Harden, P.J. Tucker, and Filip Petrusev to the Clippers. In exchange, the 76ers received Marcus Morris, Robert Covington, Nic Batum, KJ Martin, a 2028 unprotected first-round pick, two second-round picks, a 2029 pick swap, and an additional first-round pick from the Oklahoma City Thunder. To facilitate the trade, the Clippers also engaged in a 2027 first-round pick swap with Oklahoma City, which then sent a protected 2026 first-round pick to the 76ers. Danny Green was waived by the Sixers to make room for the new additions.
The roots of this trade can be traced back to June when Harden opted into his $35.6 million player option for the 2023-24 season. His relationship with 76ers president Daryl Morey deteriorated over the subsequent months, reaching a boiling point when Harden publicly called Morey "a liar" during a promotional event in China. This tension made it increasingly difficult for Harden to be reintegrated into the Sixers' lineup, thus accelerating trade talks.
As highlighted in a Pregame.com article from mid-August titled "The Harden-Morey Saga: Unraveling the Betting Market Impact on the 76ers," the betting market had already sensed the discord between Harden and the 76ers organization. The article pointed out that BetOnline had set the odds of Harden not attending the 76ers training camp at -500, implying an 80% probability. Underdog bettors cashed in at +300 as Harden did attend at least the beginning portion of the 76ers' training camp. Always read the fine print on your tickets, folks.
Even more telling were the odds of Harden not playing a single game for the 76ers during the 2023-24 season, set at a staggering -1500 for him to not play for the 76ers, and +600 odds he would suit up for at least one game. These odds were a clear indicator that the relationship between Harden and the Sixers had reached a point of no return, projecting a 91% chance that he would have played his last game for Philly after the Sixers bowed out to the Celtics in a lifeless 112-88 Game 7 defeat in Boston.
The Pregame.com article also noted that among Harden's next possible destinations, the Clippers were the favorites at -250. This foresight proved accurate, as the Clippers finally pulled the trigger on a deal that had been in discussion since July. The Clippers were always a logical landing spot for Harden, not just because of his Southern California roots but also due to the team's ambition to win an NBA championship, something that has eluded Harden throughout his illustrious career.
The trade has far-reaching implications for both teams. For the Clippers, they now boast a lineup featuring Harden alongside Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook, making them a formidable contender in the Western Conference. For the 76ers, the trade allows them to turn the page and focus on building around Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, while also acquiring valuable assets for the future.
The Harden trade saga has been a rollercoaster of emotions, market fluctuations, and strategic moves by both teams. It's a story that has been closely followed not just by fans and analysts but also by the betting market, which, as the Pregame.com article indicated, had a keen sense of how the situation would unfold. Now, as Harden dons a Clippers jersey, the next chapter in this ongoing drama begins, and all eyes will be on how he integrates into his new team and how this move shifts the NBA landscape.
Vegas Odds Impact
The Vegas betting market has reacted to the trade, albeit the impact is not quite as seismic as a few years ago during Harden's MVP heydey. When the Nets traded for James Harden in 2021 they became title favorites almost overnight. The Clippers this week, on the other hand have seen a slight improvement in their Vegas odds, however they have not leapfrogged any teams on the odds board. Prior to the trade, the Clippers were listed at 20/1 odds to win the NBA Championship. Post-trade, those odds have improved to 12/1. Despite this significant upgrade, the Clippers are still trailing Western contenders like the Nuggets, Suns, and Warriors.
On the other side, the 76ers' odds remained unchanged at 25/1. This suggests that the market had already priced in the likelihood of Harden being moved, and the assets received in return were in line with expectations.
Harden Visits Crypto
James Harden and P.J. Tucker were welcomed into the Clippers' locker room shortly after their arrival at the Crypto.com Arena. Team president Lawrence Frank and Clippers owner Steve Ballmer personally greeted the players. In a moment of camaraderie, Russell Westbrook, who has a history of playing with Harden in Oklahoma City and Houston, broke his pregame routine to joke with Harden. The atmosphere was light, and Harden even sang along to "You Dropped A Bomb On Me" by the Gap Band, which was playing in the nearby trainer's room. All of this unfolded just an hour before the Clippers secured a 118-102 win over the Orlando Magic covering as 6.5-point favorites. Through four games, the Clippers are 3-1 SU & ATS and have the league's best net rating so far in the young season. Notably, with the addition of Harden, the Clippers will now boast four homegrown, LA-native multiple-time All-Stars, joining Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook.
What's Next for LAC?
While the trade is expected to become official soon, Harden and Tucker are not likely to suit up for the Clippers' next game against the Lakers on Wednesday. The team has a four-day break following the Lakers game, providing a mini-training camp window to integrate the new players. Harden is expected to make his Clippers debut during their three-game road swing in New York, where they will face the Knicks and later the Nets, Harden's former team.
The Clippers take on the Lakers Wednesday night on the second night of a back-to-back, a situation that the betting market generally views as a 2-point disadvantage. This is reflected in the current odds, which have the LA Clippers at +3 against the Lakers. If we adjust for the back-to-back scenario, the Lakers would be expected to be 1-point favorites in a neutral rest situation. This is noteworthy because it suggests that the market sees these two teams as closely matched, even without the newly acquired Harden and Tucker in the Clippers' lineup.
Although the Clippers and Lakers share the Crypto.com Arena, this particular matchup is technically a Lakers home game. This means that Lakers season-ticket holders will have priority, potentially giving the Lakers a slight edge in fan presence and, by extension, home-court advantage. While this rivalry is often treated as a neutral court for all intents and purposes, the technicality of it being a Lakers "home" game could influence the betting lines to some extent.
The LA Clippers are an astounding 36-7 SU (Straight Up) vs. the Lakers since the start of the 2013 season. Kawhi Leonard is 19-10 SU vs. his small forward rival LeBron James in his career, including 16-5 SU since the 2013 NBA Finals.
Following the Lakers game, the Clippers have a four-day break, which will serve as a mini-training camp for Harden and Tucker. This period will be crucial for integrating the new players into the team's existing systems and dynamics. Harden is then expected to make his Clippers debut during a three-game road swing in New York, where they will face off against the Knicks and later the Nets, Harden's former team.
While the Harden trade has the potential to be a defining moment for both the Clippers and the 76ers, the immediate focus will be on how the Clippers fare against the Lakers in their upcoming game. The odds suggest a closely contested matchup, making it a must-watch event for both fans and bettors alike.
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