If you’re looking to diversify your NFL betting portfolio beyond your Pick ‘Em leagues, it’s critical that you know how to read NFL betting odds and point spreads like a pro. But first, let’s explain what point spreads are and what the bookmakers are trying to tell you.
Throughout the piece, we’ll use a hypothetical matchup for continuity. With the Kansas City Chiefs being the reigning Super Bowl champions, the league will assuredly have them start the season for Thursday Night Kickoff.
Understanding Point Spreads
NFL and NBC will have the pick of the lot from Kansas City’s potential opponents, but let’s settle on the juiciest matchup possible, the Cincinnati Bengals. Within seconds of the announcement of the Bengals and Chiefs opening the season, a point spread will be available on your preferred sportsbook.
Assuming everyone remains healthy, the Chiefs will likely be a -4.5 favorite, meaning Patrick Mahomes and company must defeat the Bengals by more than four points. A 31-27 shootout will be great to watch on TV but not so great for those backing the Chiefs.
On the other hand, the Bengals would be +4.5, meaning they have a four-point cushion. Perhaps you used to play hoops with a younger sibling and gave them a 5-0 lead before you even started the game. That’s precisely what the point spread means. Even before kickoff, the Bengals had a four-point lead.
The primary reason sharp bettors prefer point spreads is that it gives them the biggest ROI. At a 4.5-point favorite, betting the Chiefs to win (money line) will cut your profits in half. However, the point spreads level everything out to give you as close to a 1:1 payout as possible sans the fee for the vig.
Deciphering Why Some Lines Move
The line will feverishly move in all directions, even months before the game. A line moves for several reasons, but the crux is how much money is going on one team.
At first instinct, the public might think it’s laughable that Patrick Mahomes isn’t even a touchdown favorite on opening night, causing the line to shift to -5.5 in favor of KC. But during the final practice for the week, Travis Kelce suffered a high ankle sprain that landed him on the injury report. Considering Kelce’s 191 consecutive games starting streak, it’s hard to imagine he won’t suit up. Yet, the questionable nature of the injury may drop the line to -3.5.
The question is: how should you interpret line movements? Fading the public is a popular strategy because the average sports fan isn’t the brightest crayon in the box. Just because the public feels one way doesn’t mean it’s correct. Always go with your gut and use the line movements to your advantage. If you still think the Chiefs will roll, you can take an alternate line at -6.5 for a bigger payday.
Along with point spread movement, keeping an eye on the payout odds is wise. The point spread may not change with the Kelce news, but instead of the Chiefs being -115 as a 4.5-point favorite, they might be +105 now. These circumstances are why shopping for lines is essential to make the most money. There’s no reason to bet the Chiefs at -4.5 and -125 odds when they are -4.5 and +100 on another book.
Home Cooking
Another component of how bookmakers come up with the odds is a home-field advantage. The odds on a game tend to favor the home team rather than the away squad visiting unfriendly confines.
The home field is typically worth three points on average for football. If the home team has a -3 spread, it’s safe to infer that the oddsmakers consider the teams quite evenly matched. A team favored by a handful of points on the road will likely be a double-digit favorite if they were playing at home.
With our example, the oddsmakers feel the Bengals and Chiefs compare nicely, but the Chiefs’ home-field advantage could give them extra motivation. Look at the home and away records and splits for teams and players. While you shouldn’t make your wagers solely on that information, it does paint a vivid picture.
Great Teams Cover
The Chiefs had an astounding 17-3 record en route to their Super Bowl victory. While a .850 winning percentage is impressive in the grand scheme of things, their 9-11 record against the spread may leave a sour taste in some Chiefs fans’ mouths.
The famous gambling adage “good teams win, great teams cover” indicates an overall win-loss record doesn’t tell us the whole story, as the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs showed. The inverse of last year’s Chiefs team is the 2022 Houston Texans.
The Houston Texans was a dreadful team for all intents and purposes last season. They finished with a 3-13-1 record and would have had the number one draft pick if they didn’t inexplicably win their final game of the season. Regardless of their win-loss record, the Texans were decent against the spread. Their 8-8-1 record proves that the team had “the dog” in them, although they were objectively terrible.
The surprising New York Giants were the best team in the ATS last year. It took a while for the books to recognize the Giants as a formidable opponent, finishing the year 14-5 ATS as opposed to their 10-8-1 win/loss record. The worst team ATS was Tom Brady’s disappointing Buccaneers with an embarrassing 4-13-1 mark.
The moral of the story: against the spread means more from a betting perspective than who wins on the scoreboard.
What a Tease
The last thing worth covering is the ever-so-lovely teasers. Teasers are multi-game bets in which the bettor adjusts each game’s point spread or total. You can adjust the spread by 6, 6.5, or 7 points, decreasing the payoff by half a point for each additional half-point.
Stanford Wong is the godfather of teaser betting, and his book Sharp Sports Betting explains winning strategies that will aid in your long-term success. Wong recommends avoiding two-team teasers until the game’s total is 49 or less. He argues that three and seven are important numbers since they cover the most frequent winning margins.
In particular, for the favorites, lines drop to -2.5, -3, and -3.5 for an -8.5, -9, and -9.5-point favorite. Conversely, the odds for +2.5, +3, and +3.5 underdogs move to +8.5, +9, and +9.5, respectively.
You’ll win more bets using this method but also need to win more of them to make a profit. Wong concluded that you must win 72.5 percent for a break-even point.
Learning to read NFL betting odds and point spreads like a pro will keep you from a never-ending cycle of depositing and losing money during the NFL season. Our team at Pregame can help you with NFL picks against the spread for the upcoming season at an early-bird price. Pregame is the place to connect before you bet, particularly regarding the NFL.
