This week in college football, we break down Ohio State at Illinois, Alabama at Mississippi State, Oklahoma at Kansas State and below Bryan Leonard and Vegas Runner give a free pick and handicapping analysis for the noon showdown between the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans.
Ohio State at Illinois (odds -4) Start Time 3:30 ABC: Great example of a perception/reality game, in spite of OSU’s mediocre 3-3 SUATS log there is still plenty of public backing for this team. The reality is that it’s Illinois that is off to a 6-0 SU start. Yet, because of the public perception of these two teams, this line has barely moved since opening week. Now the Buckeyes must start QB Bauserman who has been abysmal in a pair of road efforts. In fact, his passing stats show him being just 3-24! That’s a long way from the polished offensive performance of the home team which finds the explosive combination of QB Scheelhaase to WR Jenkins resulting in 35 PPG. Best part is that the attack is balanced with 222 or more yards both running and passing. On the defensive side, each unit allows 18 PPG. But, this is an overworked Buckeye stop unit that has seen their confidence riddled last week by a Nebraska comeback that saw the Huskers put up 34 points and 423 yards. That’s more points than allowed by any Buckeye team in over three years.
Alabama (odds -25 ½) at Mississippi Start Time 6:00 ESPN2: At 6-0 SU 5-1 ATS with an average margin of 38-7 it’s very hard to go against an Ala. team that is perhaps the best in the land. They are 6-0 SU 5-1 ATS +48 AFP. Most remarkable is the fact they have a +3 net TO margin, extending their record in that area to +40 TOs and +254 AFP the previous three years. It brings them on runs of 31-15 ATS L3 +Y including 11-4 ATS away of late. The adjustment of 10 pts from opening week is simply not enough to compensate for the -63 net AFP possessed by Ole Miss for this game. The Rebels are a work in progress at best. Following their 4-8 SUATS season of 2010. An extra week to prepare cannot turn their fortunes quickly enough. This is a team that earlier this season lost 30-7 at Vandy. A game in which they gained just 234 yards. Can’t see them doing that well against Ala.
Oklahoma (odds -33) at Kansas Start Time 9:15 ESPN2: After you’ve watched Ala. destroy Ole Miss with their defense, tune in to watch OK do the same to KS with their offense. Much like Ole Miss, the Jayhawks have a favoring -62 AFP, which has given than more than a TD of value since opening week. Much like Ole Miss it’s not nearly enough. The Jayhawks are one of the worst defensive teams in the country allowing 49 pts and 556 YPG. Last week, OK State scored 56 pts against them. That was in the first half! What will the Sooners do at #3 and trying harder? They will look to eclipse that 76 point output of the Cowboys with one of the Nation’s best passing games behind QB Jones which averages 376 PYPG. At some point the Sooners have this spread covered, the only question is whether a decent KS offense can come through the back door.
Free Picks: Michigan at Michigan State Betting
What college football bettors need to know about Michigan at Michigan State (Saturday, October 15, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including predictions from Bryan Leonard and analysis from host Vegas Runner.