Air Force at Navy (-2-) 12:00 PM EST CBS: Each of these teams is again running the option with aplomb this season.  And each of the defenses has again proven to be a bit problematic.  That may be slightly more true for Air Force who has allowed 184 RYPG to each of 2 opponents.  And they didn’t even sniff their only true opponent in a 35-19 loss to TCU.  The bottom line numbers show the Fly Boys at 0-3 ATS.  When compared to Navy’s 3-0 ATS record, it favors Air Force with a -75 net AFP diff.  That would normally be an automatic play for us on Air Force.  But this line has barely been adjusted since opening week meaning the AFP, in this case, has not done its job of creating value.  As a result, we will favor a Navy team who played far better in their only true test at South Carolina, a 24-21 loss as plus 15.  And clearly favor the revenge factor for the home team for a 14-6 loss at Air Force which snapped their 7 game winning streak against the Fly Boys, and 7^th consecutive year in which they captured the CIC trophy. 

Wake Forest (-2-) at Boston College 12:30 PM EST: Following a 3-9 SU season of 2010, some may consider Wake’s 2-1 SU, ATS start to imply a turnaround with 17 RS.  Yet, those results have been phony at best.  The first week was a road loss at Syracuse in which they choked the game.  Week #2 was a home win vs. injured NC State and Week #3 is G. Webb, who is awful.  This team is still not going anywhere. Their downfall begins today.  Under HC Spaziani, the Eagles have been grounded on their home field.  They are 1-9 ATS of late.   With 3 losses already to NW, UCF and Duke, it may appear a lost season for a BC team who has posted a winning record every year of this millennium. But that start was without RB Harris who returned for limited duty in a 45-17 victory vs. U. Mass LW.  With Harris returning to full strength this week, The Eagles will have the better running game and clearly the better defense.  Plus they have the advantage of history and value on their side.  They stand 4-0 SU, ATS vs. Wake including 23-13 LY.  Though they do not officially qualify for our contrarian play, the -36 net AFP plus public money on Wake have resulted in 10 points of line value since opening week.  This is a nice hidden winner for you. 

Penn State (-16) at Indiana 12:00 PM EST ESPNU: This was not the beginning that first year HC Wilson had hoped for when he gave  up his job as OC at Oklahoma to become a Head Coach in the Big 10.  Now, he knows why this Indiana program has had just 1 winning season this millennium.  His 1-3 Su record is characterized by a Game #1 loss to Ball State and the Game #4 loss last week at lowly North Texas where his Hoosiers failed to score in the 1^st half.  That hardly bodes well when facing the upper echelon of the Big 10.  But Penn State, with their rotating QB system, has failed to show any offensive polish in going 0-4 ATS for the season with an offense that is averaging only 349 YPG and 5.1 YPPL including home outings against Indiana State and E. Michigan.  They will no doubt win this game with their “Defensive Dandy” numbers.  But despite Penn State’s failure to cover a game this season, this line has been inflated by nearly a touchdown for the ineptitude shown by Indiana last week.  In short, this line has been overinflated for the perception of Penn State as opposed to the reality that this team is on a 5-13 ATS slide including 1-4 ATS away..  

 Free Picks - Air Force at Navy Betting
What CFB bettors need to know about Air Force at Navy (Saturday, October 1, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including predictions from Bryan Leonard and analysis from host Vegas Runner.