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AFC West leader Denver will take aim at a sixth consecutive win today when it takes on division rival Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium (1:00pm ET start time, CBS). The latest NFL Sunday Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Odds are favoring the visitor at -10.5 against the spread while the hosting Chiefs are getting +435 odds ($100 wins $435) as a moneyline selection. Today’s game total is set at 43 points.

Few people like to side against a double digit home underdog, especially in the NFL where anything can happen, but going against Kansas City always looks appealing.

The 1-9 Chiefs have covered the spread just three times this season and they are 1-4 opposite the number at home where they have lost by an average of 13.6 points per game. In fact, every Kansas City loss at Arrowhead this season came by double digits with the exception of a 9-6 setback against the Ravens.

Yes, the Broncos are a division opponent, which can change the dynamics of a game; however, two of KC’s five home losses came against the Chargers and Raiders, both division foes.

Aside from the trends, Denver is just a far better team. The only way Peyton Manning and company do not win this game by 10 or more points is by losing the turnover battle. That hardly seems realistic, though, given Kansas City’s bigger than life ball security issues. How do you out-turnover the king of turnovers? It is not impossible, but it is incredibly unlikely.

Free Pick: Take the Over 43. It is difficult to side with a double digit road favorite in the NFL, but the Chiefs are equally unappealing. That makes the Over the best play here.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs NFL Odds:

Denver Broncos -10.5 (-105), Over 43 (-110), -570 (Moneyline)

Kansas City Chiefs +10.5 (-115), Under 43 (-110), +435 (Moneyline)

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