Analysis:
Happy Mothers Day
Sunday, May 14th
3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT
Western Conference Finals
San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Thanks to all who joined us on Friday Night for our biggest play of Round Two. That 3*** BEST BET was on UNDER 215 points in Game Six of the Celtics / Wizards series… and there OU outcome was never in doubt (final score was 92 to 91). It cashed by 32 points. The game could have went into Overtime and it still would have been a ‘W’. So in the last four days of NBA Playoff action, we’ve gone 4-0 overall. Friday: 3* Celtics / Wizards UNDER… Thursday: 2* Spurs / Rockets UNDER… Wednesday: 2* Boston Celtics… Tuesday: 2* Spurs / Rockets OVER… Let’s finish this pretty good week with a Sunday WINNER on Mama’s Day!
It sure is shocking when one takes a look at the pointspread and sees the mighty Spurs catching 10 points in a post-season game. But that’s where we’re at. Golden State (as we type this on Saturday afternoon) is favored by -10 to -10.5 points in Sunday’s Game One… and the OU line is in the range of 210.5 to 211.5.
The SAN ANTONIO SPURS have been a GREAT ‘Under’ team in the post-season here tabbed as a mid-to-high underdog (relatively speaking). In fact, they’ve gone UNDER in 70% of their games as Playoff underdogs of > 4 points (6-14 O/U)… and 1-8 O/U (89% under) as Playoff underdogs of 6 or more points.
Expanding our database querying in regards to Sunday’s BIG pointspread, we note that following solid UNDER numbers for BIG spreads:
NBA Playoff games in which a team is favored by DOUBLE-DIGITS (Warriors) with an OU line of > 188 points have gone 33-78-3 O/U dating all the way back to the 1992 season. That’s great number of 70% UNDER and over a large sample size of 111 games to boot. In THIS decade (201 and later), we note that these games have gone 8-27-1 (77% Under!).
It was bound to come to this…. #1 versus #2. Golden State is the #1 seed team in the Western Conference while San Antonio is the #2 seed team in the Western Conference. So that’ll be out next post-season database query…
18-44-2 O/U since 1991: All NBA Playoff #1 SEED home teams (Warriors) versus a #2 SEED opponent (Spurs). In the last 12 post-seasons, these games have gone 90% UNDER (1-9 O;U when the OU line is < 204 points… including a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in the last four years!
As is almost always the case, we also look to the database for any OU tendencies that might apply to this particular Day of the Week. And there ARE some revealing and UNDER-whelming numbers for games with large point spreads…
NBA Playoff SUNDAY home favorites of -7 or more points (Warriors) have gone 12-29-1 O/U in the last 20 years when the OU line is 219 or less points (79% Under)…
In THIS particular game, we note that:
The ‘3.1’ game of the NBA Playoffs (Round 3 / Game 1) has gone 75% UNDER the Total (3-9 O/U) when the OU line is > 199 points (Spurs @ Warriors). In the last three years, these games have gone a perfect 0-3 O/U.
Systems and Situations in regards to each team INDIVIDUALLY:
(1) 0-6 O/U since 1995: All NBA teams who allowed 75 < points on the ROAD (Spurs) in their last Playoff win (that also rent UNDER) when the OU line is 195 < points…
(2) 0-6 O/U in our database history: All Playoff underdogs off a SU Playoff BIG win of 35 or more points (Spurs won by 39 on Thursday)… when the OU line is 225 or less points…
(3) 1-8 O/U last 3 years: All NBA Playoff ROUND 2, 3, or 4 home teams off BB Playoff SU and ATS wins in which they were favored by -6 or more points (Warriors)…
(4) 1-7 O/U since 2009: All NBA Playoff non-division teams in ROUNDS 2, 3, or 4 off a SU Playoff road win of 20 or more points that also went Over the Total (Warriors)...
Pick Made: May 13 2017 10:12AM PST