Analysis:
#513-514
10:35pm ET / 7:35pm PT
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS @ LOS ANGELES LAKERS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
These two teams JUST played each other five days ago in Portland (Thursday). In that one, the OU line was 221 points, and the game went OVER. Based on what we see in our database, tonight’s rematch will have the same OU results. We would be a little cautious if Portland was still in the same injury mode as the last few weeks. But All-Star point guard Damian Lillard is finally BACK in action, and has scored 20 or more points in each game since returning from his left ankle injury. And he’s also let red-hot CJ McCollum carry the load in his absence. McCollum has averaged 31.6 points in his last eight games, and completes a true 1-2 scoring punch with his backcourt mate. After Portland struggled to get to 100 points during Lillard’s absence, they have averaged 121 points since he got back. And they come into tonight’s game on a current 3-game OVER streak.
So that current streak sets up our first database query: 19-5-1 O/U last 2 months: All Conference favorites (BLAZERS) off 3 or more ‘Overs’ in a row… when the OU line is in the range of 198 to 225 points. These games have gone 10-2 O/U in NON-division play… including a perfect 6-0 O/U in the last four weeks.
Portland comes into tonight’s game off a tough home favorite OVERTIME loss to the Detroit Pistons on Sunday night. The final score of that high-scoring game was 125 to 124… 20-4-1 O/U last 4 years: All favorites off a SU home favorite loss in which they scored AND allowed 120 > points (BLAZERS). These games have gone a PERFECT 7-0 O/U when the OU line is 215 or more points.
The Lakers come into tonight’s game with a decent (for THEM) record of 15-26 on the season. They’re playing their best ball of the year (3-1 SU last 4)… and are off back-to-back wins in a row in which they averaged 119 points per game. NBA underdogs off BB wins have been GREAT ‘Over’ plays this season… 22-4-2 O/U so far THIS season: All non-division underdogs off back-to-back SU and ATS wins (LAKERS).
At last look, LA was a ‘short’ home underdog of +1.5 to +2 points in tonight’s game… 10-2 O/U since December: All non-division CONFERENCE ‘short’ home underdogs of + 4 or less points (LAKERS).
On the INDIVIDUAL ‘team’ side, we note that:
PORTLAND has gone 10-1 O/U as non-division road favorites when the OU line is 212 or more points. That already includes a PERFECT 3-0 O/U so far THIS season… with an average of 239.3 combined points per game. In addition, the TRAILBLAZERS are 12-3 O/U in their last 15 games vs the Pacific Division… 9-3 O/U in their last 12 ROAD games… and 5-1 O/U versus .400 or LESS opponents.
On the flip side, LOS ANGELES is 13-3 O/U in their last 16 games versus losing (> .500) opponents… 8-1 O/U as short home underdogs of +5 or less points (4-0 O/U since December 1st)… 7-1 O/U at home versus teams with a < .500 road record… 16-7 O/U after scoring 100+ points in their last game… 4-1 O/U versus the Northwest Division… and 6-2 O/U on Tuesdays.
Pick Made: Jan 10 2017 8:59AM PST