Analysis:
#703-704
7:35pm ET / 4:35pm PT
Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
We are well aware that the host Celtics have been scoring a lot of points lately. In fact, the Beantown Boys come into Tuesday’s game against the Jazz on a SEVEN-game ‘OVER’ streak. If there was ever a great time to fade a streak like that, it’s tonight… against the BEST Defense in the entire league. That would be Utah, who is holding opponents to only 42.8% shooting on the season.. and a league LOW 94.5 points per game. And speaking go OU streaks, the Jazz are on one of their own. With last night’s game against Brooklyn going UNDER by 16 points, Utah is now 0-4 O/U in their last four games… and 1-7 O/U in their last eight. It sure doesn’t hurt us at all either that this Jazz / Celtics SERIES has gone a PERFECT 0-4-1 O/U in the last five meetings played IN Boston. The average combined points in those five games: only 183.0. That’s about 17 points less than tonight’s OU line of around 200 points. We like the fact that BOSTON has gone 0-6 O/U at home in the last 3 years when facing teams with NO REST who just won on the road the night before. And on the flip side, Utah has gone 2-10-1 O/U versus any opponent playing with THREE days of rest, like the Celtics.
So tonight’s game has an EXTREME rest differential, and that’s the very first aspect of our database querying that jumped out at us. Boston last played way back on Friday night, so that’s 3 full days of rest for the hosts. But Utah just played last night, so that’s NO REST for the visitors. Our first query tells us that:
NBA home favorites (Boston) in a ‘3+ / 0’ REST situation (3+ days rest vs NO rest) have gone 90% UNDER the Total (1-9-1 O/U) in the last two seasons when the OU line is < 219 points.
We mentioned in the first paragraph that Utah has allowed a league LOW in points on defense this season. In their last three games, they have allowed UNDER 90 points each time.
9-26-2 O/U last 4 years: All NBA road teams who allowed < 90 points in EACH of their last three games (Jazz). These teams have gone 2-14 O/U when the OU line is > 194 points.
On the other hand, to be fair… a query must be run in regards to the impressive amount of points that Boston has scored as if late. They have scored 112 or more points in EACH of their last five games…
0-5 O/U last 2 years: All NBA teams who scored 112 > points in each of their last FIVE games (Celtics) when the OU line is < 213 points.
Both teams come in with quality W/L records thus far. Utah is 22-13 SU (.628)… while Boston is 20-14 SU (.589)…
8-20-1 O/U this season: All > .580 home favorites (Celtics) versus a > .580 opponent (Jazz) when the OU line is 214 < points. These games have gone 1-8-1 O/U since the beginning of December.
Pick Made: Jan 3 2017 8:46AM PST