Analysis:You should not have to lay 7.5 in this one and you may be able to get a 6.5 if you wait a bit.
The 7's are out there now, so you can certainly buy this down to 6.5 which I don't think is ever a bad idea.
A few things that jumped out at me in this game. First of all, I don't think people realize how good The Chiefs are and how good they have been. After last week's incredible come from behind victory over The Panthers, The Chiefs are now 17-and-2 SU in their last 19-games. They are also 2-and-1 this season in games when trailing by 17-or more points. I did put a SuperBowl future on this team a few weeks ago at 20-1. Not that they will win it but they are a very good team to be getting 20-1.
Secondly, I noticed that people were running to the window to bet Tampa Bay in this one. Again, I can understand that 7 or 7.5 looks pretty juicy but people underestimate Kansas City because they are not flashy. They just silently go about their business and win football games.. and when teams win games SU in the NFL, they cover the spread about 85% of the time. And apparently people are not seeing how bad Tampa Bay is. They are not San Francisco bad - but they are pretty low in the rankings, even becoming a home underdog last week to of all teams, The Chicago Bears, who are no great shakes either.
.. and speaking of Chicago, this is not bad set up either. The Buccaneers won a game last week SU as an underdog and are now headed out on the road to face a far superior opponent. That is not a good recipe.
I made the line in this game 9.5, so I will gladly take the team who is arguably the best team in the best overall division in football and dance with them today at Arrowhead.
Pick Made: Nov 19 2016 11:31AM PST