Analysis:
8:25pm ET / 5:25pm PT / #301-302
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
The amount of injuries in regards to this Thursday night game is STAGGERING. There are so many players who are listed, that this one almost resembles a pre-season game. At last look, there are 26 PLAYERS for the visiting Bears who are on the injury report. That’s over HALF of their roster! And that includes multiple impact offensive players. On the flip side, there are 16 PLAYERS for the host Packers who are on the injury report. Including impact offensive players like Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Jared Cook, and Jared Abbrederis. With neither team ‘playing with a FULL deck’, the UNDER is a pretty obvious play. Particularly when we have some strong OU AMMO from our Playbook NFL database.
Based on the current pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is:
Green Bay 27 - Chicago 19.5…
Sharp OU players already know that Chicago is down to their second-string QB… and have scored 17 or LESS points in five out of six games already this season.
Meanwhile, the struggling Packers have gone 1-8 O/U since the start of last season at HOME versus fellow NFC Conference opponents… and have scored OVER 28 points just ONCE in this time span.
Green Bay was a home favorite against Dallas last week, and got blasted by a score of 30 to 16… 8-25-1 O/U last three years: All NFL teams off a SU home favorite LOSS of 14 or more points (Green Bay). That includes a PERFECT 0-6 O/U for favorites of -4 or more points (like the Packers).
Chicago is ALSO off a home favorite loss in their last game. They were -2.5 last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and lost by a score of 17 to 16… 0-7 O/U since 2009: All GAME 12 or less road teams off a SU home favorite LOSS (Bears) versus any opponent ALSO off a SU home favorite LOSS (Packers).
Both teams scored only 16 points last week… 4-16 O/U since 2005: All DIVISION home favorites of 14 < points when BOTH teams (Packers + Bears) scored LESS than (<) 17 points last game, when the OU line is > 41 points. These game shave gone 1-7 O/U when the OU line is 45 or more points…
Green Bay is in the tail end of 4 STRAIGHT home games in a row…
0-6-1 O/U since 2001: All NFL teams in their 3rd STRAIGHT home game (Packers) versus any DIVISION opponent (Bears)… and off an UNDER in their last game.
1-5 O/U since 1900: All NFL teams playing in a rare FOURTH straight home game (Packers).
So Green Bay is a sizable division home favorite (-7.5 to -8 the last time I looked)… 1-9 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 12 or less big division home favorites of > 7 points (Packers) when the OU line is > 43 points. In the last eight seasons, these games have gone 2-10-1 O/U when BOTH teams are off a SU loss in their last game.
On THURSDAYS, division games have gone 1-7 O/U in the last two seasons when the OU line is 43 or more points (Bears @ Packers).
Pick Made: Oct 19 2016 10:57AM PST