Analysis:
#253 / 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Game One: We’re gonna slot Washington in the same spot that they were in last week’s Triple Play: The ‘lead' OVER of the 3-Play card. There doesn’t figure to be much defense in this non-conference game. In fact, this is the ONLY NFL game on the Week Four schedule in which BOTH teams accumulated 400+ yards of offense last week... and also GAVE UP 400+ yards on defense. There was 860 total yards of offense in the Redskins / Giants game (and 56 pts)... and 856 in the Browns / Dolphins game (and 54 pts). So we have a 30.7 ppg defense (WASH) taking on a 28.0 ppg defense (CLE). Not only are the Redskins a 3-0 O/U team on the year (along with ATL), but dating back to last season... they have now gone OVER the Total in EIGHT straight games in a row (54.6 combined PPG). On the flip side, the BROWNIES have now gone 10-1 O/U in Games One thru Four over the last three seasons.
Our first querying into the database has us looking at some ‘Game 4 SPECIFICS’:
(1) GAME Four AFC road underdogs (BROWNS) have gone a perfect 7-0 O/U vs NFC opponents (REDSKINS) in the last 5 years...
(2) GAME FOUR winless underdogs of > 3 points (BROWNS) have gone 13-2 O/U since 1995 when the OU line is 45 > pts...
(3) GAME FOUR teams off 3 straight ‘Overs’ (WASH) have gone 20-3 O/U s’98 vs any opponent also off an ‘Over’ (CLEV)... and finally
(4) GAME FOUR b-i-g non-division favorites of -9 or greater points (REDSKINS) have gone 9-1-1 O/U s’2008. So that’s four ‘GAME 4 specific’ NON-related situations that have gone a combined 49-5-1 O/U!
In their road loss down here in South Florida on Sunday, the Browns went into overtime against the Dolphins.... NON-CONFERENCE teams off a road OVERTIME loss (CLEV) have gone 9-1 O/U in the last 4 years.
The Redskins are 1 of only 2 teams that have given up 27 > points in each of their first three games.... 7-0 O/U since 2010: All NFC favorites of > 6 points who allowed 27 > points in EACH of their last three games (WASH). This game opened with a line of 45.5 points. Let’s LOCK in it before it gets to 47.5 or 48…
Pick Made: Sep 30 2016 3:17PM PST