Analysis:
Thursday / Sept. 29th / 8:25pm ET / 5:25pm PT / #101-102
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 44.5 or less points
The sharp OU player will try to get this one in at the current line (as of Wednesday afternoon) of 44.5 or less points. We will certainly be ‘bucking’ some individual team OU trends in this one. For instance, we’re very aware that Miami has not gone OVER in a Thursday night game since the 2006 season (0-7-1 O/U since then). And Cincinnati has gone 1-3-1 O/U in Thursday games since the 2010 season. But off back-to-back losses, the Bengals are primed for that first big offensive explosion of the season. And what better team to get that explosion off of but a Dolphins defense that just allowed an offensively-challenged Cleveland team to erupt for 430 yards?
If this was a Thursday DIVISION game, we might be tempted to ‘Go Low’… but it’s not. And besides…. NFL non-division THURSDAY home favorites of > 1 or < 10 pts (BENGALS) have gone a PERFECT 8-0 O/U in the last four seasons when the OU line is 50 or less points.
Cincinnati was a home favorite last week against the Broncos, and my dog SPEEDEE brought home the bacon with his 2** Dog of the Week WINNER on DENVER. Not only did the Bengals lose, but the lost by ‘DOUBLE D’s’… 8-1 O/U since 2011: All non-division home favorites off a SU double-digit home FAVORITE loss (BENGALS).
Cincy’s OPPONENT from last week also plays a role in our high-scoring outcome… 7-0 O/U since 2009: All NON-AFC West Division favorites who just lost as favorite against the DENVER BRONCOS the previous week (BENGALS).
Meanwhile, the Dolphins went into overtime in their home win against the Browns last week… 10-2 O/U last 5 years: All non-division road underdogs off a SU favorite home OVERTIME win (DOLPHINS).
Miami was a big home favorite in that win against the Brownies (final score 30-24). They got the WIN but they did NOT cover the pointspread… 6-0 O/U last 3 years: All non-division underdogs of 2 > points off a SU home win BUT an ATS loss in a game in which they scored AND allowed 24 > points (DOLPHINS).
GAME FOUR ‘specific’ situations also point to a high-scoring outcome…
(1) GAME FOUR big home favorites of > 7 points (CINCY) have gone 9-1 O/U since 2010 when the OU line is > 44 points.
(2) 5-0 O/U last 2 years: All GAME FOUR ‘AFC vs AFC’ non-division games (MIA @ CIN) when the OU line is > 44 points.
In the last 12 months, All ‘AFC vs AFC’ non-division games (MIA @ CIN) have gone 13-3 O/U when the OU line is 44 or more points...
Pick Made: Sep 28 2016 11:09AM PST