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904 NYM (-197) Pinnacle vs 903 PHI
dime bet
Analysis:
I'm playing on NY. The Mets have to be happy to see the Phillies instead of the Braves. They're 34-16 (+12) their last 50 against the Phillies, 16-8 (+3.4) here at home against them, during that stretch. They've seen Morgan twice (once here at NY) and they rocked him both times. NY won those games by scores of 16-7 and 9-4 and they took Morgan deep a whopping seven times in just 8 2/3 innings. While Morgan is 2-4 (team is 2-7) with a 5.92 ERA in nine road starts, Lugo is 4-1 (Mets are 5-1) with a 2.21 ERA in six starts overall, 2-0 (Mets are 3-0) with a 2.00 ERA in three home starts. While the Phillies average 3.8 runs and hit .238 vs. right-handers, the Mets average 4.2 runs and hit .260 vs. southpaws, much better than their numbers vs. right-handers. While the price is admittedly high, I believe the Mets win this matchup eight times out of 10; I expect them to bounce back tonight.
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