Analysis:
7:20pm PT - 10:20pm PT / #481-482
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 43 or more points
Make sure you get this one in at the line of AT LEAST 43 points. I played it way back in July, when it opened at 45.5 points. Since then, the lime has continued to move downward. We might get a little gameday ‘spike’ today, but the key is to get at least 43 points. Last season in the NFL, there was a total of 34 games that finished right on top of 41, 42, or 43 points.
If it’s a NFC West Division game, and we are playing the Total… there’s only ONE way to go. And that’s the UNDER. We could very well see an exact duplicate of what happened in the opening weekend of Monday Night football last season. It was these very same 49ERS that hosted a game in that Monday double-header as they were a home underdog against the Minnesota Vikings. we had a 2** Play on that game UNDER the Total as well. The OU line in that one (42.5) was similar to tonight’s line. And the final score was 20-3. The UNDER ended up cashing by an easy 19.5 points. Based on some hard numbers from our database, we’ll play for history to repeat itself in this late-night game. After all, we do have two of last season’s WORST offenses squaring off against each other. In fact, the Rams finished DEAD LAST on offense, with only 297.7 yards per game and only 17.5 points per game. Right behind them in SECOND LAST were the 49ers. San Francisco averaged only 303.7 yards per game on offense, and only 14.9 points per game.
Right out of this week’s Totals Tipsheet: San Francisco HOME games went 1-7 O/U last year… with a lowly average of only 31.1 points per game. Compare that to their road games (6-2 O/U . 47.0 ppg). Meanwhile, Los Angeles / St Louis went an equally LOW 1-7 O/U in their road games last season, with an average of only 36.8 points per game. So let’s expand those numbers a little…
St Louis / Los Angeles has gone 12-26 O/U in all games over the last 2+ seasons. That includes 4-16 O/U on the road…
San Francisco has gone 15-28-1 O/U in all games over the last three years. That includes 4-17 O/U at home. In fact, the NINERS are now on current 0-11 O/U run in the last two seasons at home versus fellow NFC Conference opponents.
This Rams / Niners series has gone 1-4 O/U in the last five meetings… with an average OU line of 42.1 points and an average combined point total of just 35.0.
Since the 2007, season NFC WEST DIVISION games have gone 6-25-1 O/U when the home team (Niners) is an UNDERDOG (like tonight)… and the OU line is > 39 points.
MONDAY NIGHT division games have gone 4-12 O/U since the 2011 season when the OU line is 47 < points… including 1-6 O/U when the host is an UNDERDOG (Niners).
In GAME ONE of the season, divisional games when there home team is an underdog have gone 3-12-1 O/U since 2007 when the OU line is < 47 points. When the OU line in these games is in the range of > 41 pts and < 47 pts, the results are a PERFECT 0-6 O/U.
Pick Made: Sep 12 2016 9:13AM PST