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178 Navy -21.5 (+101) Pinnacle vs 177 SMU
dime bet
Analysis:
SMU has played terrible football this season; the Mustangs come into this game with a 1-8 record with their lone win coming over North Texas who is also 1-8 on the season. SMU has simply been terrible on both sides of the ball this season. The Mustangs’ offense is only averaging 26.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season. Overall this season, SMU has faced a collection of defenses that allow 29.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. The Mustangs will face a Navy defense that only gives up 19 points per game on 5.5 yards per play. That’s 10.8 points per game less and 0.2 yards per play less than the defenses that SMU has faced this season. If we only use Navy’s home numbers, the outcome is even more bleak for SMU. The Midshipmen allow just 14.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play at home this season.
Navy comes into this game with a 7-1 record, including a perfect 5-0 mark at home. The Midshipmen have won three of their home games by 22 points or more with their average win coming by 22.6 points per game. Navy is averaging 35.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 27.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. Navy has faced the much tougher defensive opponents than SMU, and the Midshipmen have performed better. On the road this season, SMU’s defense is giving up 47.7 points per game on a horrendous 7.6 yards per play. The Mustangs allow 260 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush, and that plays right into Navy’s running game that averages 326.5 yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush. This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Midshipmen on Saturday afternoon.
1* Play NAVY (-).
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